How secure is Dean's lead? Can we discuss this?

[davsand]

I'm seriously wondering about how secure Dean's lead really is. I am Clark supporter--so I'll admit that my perceptions may be tainted a bit, however there is some stuff that I've been chewing on for a while now and it is all coming to a head rapidly...

1. Iowa is all about organization. The labor presence in Iowa is dominated by the Building trades--and they have been united in support for Gep. I'd seriously consider the idea that Gep's support in that caucus is much stronger than polling data has shown.

2. A Poll out of Des Moines just coming out (cited here at DU) showed Dean is favored by 29 percent of Iowa Democrats and Gephardt by 25 percent, a result within the margin of error for the survey conducted by KCCI, a Des Moines, Iowa, television station. Senator John Kerry came in third with 18 percent, and 13 percent of the state's Democrats are undecided.

3. NBC aired a report last night (with tapes) of Dean when he told a Canadian public affairs program four years ago that the Iowa caucuses were "dominated by the special interests" and a waste of time. This is a really bad time for him to be heard saying that kind of thing...

4. A guy on here who was on the ground for Clark in NH posted a couple weeks ago on here that support for ALL the candidates was really soft. Well, two weeks ago the number of undecided voters WAS much higher, but even now, the undecided number is still at 16% with some significant shifts--Indicating the voters ARE soft on support for candidates even when they express a preference.

Dean has dropped about four points in the last week, according to The American Research group poll today.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Further, in this same article from American Research Group, there are some funny calls being talked about in NH that some (rightly or wrongly) are attributing to Dean's campaign. If that kind of rumor is floating out there will the NH voters be annoyed and reflect that at the polls?

What does that all add up to? If enough Iowa voters are offended by being called a waste of time, Dean could well drop enough to be in third. Well, I'm seriously wondering what the impact in NH will be if Dean does finish second or even maybe third behind Kerry in Iowa.

There are gonna be a core group of Dean supporters up there in NH--but I'm wondering if maybe, given that soft support in NH, his lead will erode down to a few percentage points when that election is all over with.

That following round of elections is in the south and west. I agree with the folks who say that Dean support in the south is gonna be hard won. IF there is no clear win for Dean in NH or Iowa, he's gonna be in real trouble heading into those South/Western Tuesday elections on Feb 3.

I am not able to call it right now. The fat lady ain't singing yet, and to be honest, I don't think she's out of her dressing room.

What do you guys think? I'm not interested in slamming Dean or anybody else, but I'd like to hear what the folks who are tied to Dean think, and what the rest of you think. Is there reason to wonder how secure Dean's lead is?

Laura

[Hep]

1. Secure?

I never really thought of it. For me, the whole poll thing is like a basketball player checking the scoreboard during a game.

I'm going to stick to my game plan. I'm going to do my best to produce for the team. I look at the score, I go right back to my stated tasks.

No lead is ever secure. Anything can happen. Whereas in 2000 we had one Karl Rove, this year we have tons, and many of them post here. Our work is cut out for us.

[Padraig18]

2. Dean is just fine.

What you see in both states is the absolutely normal 'tightening' that always occurs the closer one gets to caucus/election day.

:)

[David Dunham]

3. Dean's Support Is Melting Away

Given all the bad new about him, Dean's support seems to be slowly melting away, like ice cream on a hot summer day. I guess the "Sleepless Summer" tour was fun while it lasted, but now comes a hard dose of reality.

[Padraig18]

4. There's really no evidence to support that.

This is a normal 'tightening' which occurs every election, and nothing more; there is no evidence which supports any other conclusion, insofar as I am aware.

[jumptheshadow]

5. Uh, oh

>>As is the case with Democrats, Clark's strength is among older (age 45 and older) voters, while Dean continues to do well among younger voters. Over the past 2 days of calling, a number of older respondents registered as undeclared voters have reported that they have received telephone calls from a campaign informing them that they will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary because they missed the deadline to switch parties. A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote.<<

We don't know where these calls originated, however:

Whether the calls are coming from the Dean campaign or not, Dean's managers better move pretty quickly to denounce them.

Older voters make it a point to cast their ballots. Getting a reputation for this type of tactic could hurt Dean badly, in New Hampshire and elsewhere.

[wtmusic]

7. deja vu

These rumors surfaced as an article in New Hampshire some months ago, and were traced to 3 (count 'em, three) phone calls.

It's getting nasty.

[LuminousX]

6. No lead in an election process is secure

The moment you think it is secure is the moment your opposition overwhelms you. No matter what the polls say, you have to campaign and act like you are 15 points behind.

[ryharrin]

8. A reply from a Deanie.

I guess I'll take your points one at a time.

1. Gephardt may have a strong organization in Iowa, but Dean has a strong organization everywhere, including Iowa. If Syracuse, NY (where I live) is any indication, Dean has an incredible lead in organization. We've been meeting, planning, and working for him for a year now. We're gotten rather organized. The petition drive to get Dean on the ballot (very tough in NY) was done almost completely by volunteers with no campaign funds in this congressional district. Dean will have people from groups like this from all over the country in Iowa, and it'll make a huge difference. Gephardt doesn't have groups like this everywhere he barely has any support outside Iowa and Missouri.

2. There was another poll recently that had Dean at 29 and Gep/Kerry around 20. Either way, Dean is definitely leading right now.

3. Dean's criticism of the caucuses seem rather correct. 8 hours just to vote is crazy. Also, I believe that since this interview, the caucuses have changed to allow them to be shorter, making Dean look pretty good.

4. I definitely agree that support is pretty soft for everyone right now. But that includes Gephardt, Kerry and Clark, not just Dean.


This, along with what I think will be massive turnout and dedication by new Dean voters and newly dedicated to democratic politics Dean voters could assure a big Dean win. Of course anything is possible, and I may just be spinning and reaching for excuses for Dean and not know it, but I don't think Dean will have much trouble winning Iowa.

[sandnsea]

9. Dean was at 45% in that poll in Dec

He's dropped in alot of polls since December. Recent events, including the dumb religious statements, haven't helped. I think he's in trouble.

[ClarkGraham2004]

10. His support is evaporating.

And with the ridiculous comments he's made as of late, rightly so.