Wishful thinking: Can Clark really challenge Dean for NH?

[Dookus]

Clark has gone up 8 points in the last few weeks, even more in the last month while Kerry has tanked and Dean's gone from 45% in mid-December to 35% today.

Clark's now at 20, Dean at 35. The momentum is clearly in Clark's favor. Dean has held steady or fallen for two weeks now. Clark is gaining steadily.

Is it possible that Clark could actually challenge Dean for 1st place in NH? If the trends continue, it will be much closer than anybody expected, and Kerry will do much worse than expected 'til now.

A week ago I would've said Clark had a 3% chance of winning NH. Today I give him a 30% chance.

Forget who you support for this discussion - could Clark win NH?

[Skinner]

1. Actually, Clark can "win" without winning.

It's all about expectations. If Clark comes in second, and if he comes close to Dean, then he can claim victory anyway.

Kinda like how the "comeback kid" claimed victory after his second place finish in '92.

Now, if Clark does somehow win New Hampshire, then we're going to see an earthquake. I doubt it will happen, but ya never know...

[Dookus]

10. I agree...

a strong second for Clark is a win.

But I'm getting myself all giddy over the latest numbers and wonder if a first-place is now within the realm of possibility.

I agree it's unlikely. But two weeks ago, I thought Clark was in a tight race for 2nd with Kerry. He's blown past him.

[Leilani]

34. Perceptions become reality

If you're the underdog you don't want to talk about finishing 1st, because if you don't then you've lost. You have to underestimate your chances & then declare victory when you do better than expected.

That is the psychology of New Hampshire, & it's always a crapshoot.

[Hep]

2. Sure he can.

That's why they have elections

[Killarney]

3. I think Clark will grab 2nd in NH, but

then come in first in a lot more on super Tuesday.

[Brickman]

4. Under the microscope

The closer any candidate is looked at their numbers usually go down.

[newyawker99]

28. Hi Brickman!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

35. 58,497!

Damn you're good!

[Padraig18]

5. The NH numbers are ominous for Kerry.

Clark should and will do well in NH, and as Skinner points out, he can win by finishing a solid second. The other 'big story' out of the NH polling numbers is that JK no longer clears the 15% threshold.

[jmaier]

7. I've got to

think that Kerry is going to climb back up over 15% but if he would leave the NH primary with NO delegates that would pretty much have to end his campaign. He's not polling above single digits anywhere on Feb 3rd.

He's a good man and this is kind of sad but I think Clark's entry killed off much of any residual Kerry support that was left after Dean's ascension.

[madaboutharry]

21. I also have empathy for Kerry

I think he is a decent man who does sincerely care about this country and the American people. But this is politics and they all know it. Al Gore knows this first hand, he won the election and the democrats were unwilling to put up a fight for him. I think Kerry would make a fine president, maybe even a great one. It just wasn't in the cards this time.

[Dookus]

13. I agree, Padraig...

Kerry appears to be going down in flames.

And that saddens me. He's a great man and a great Senator.

He may have one more run for the presidency in him, but I'm not too optimistic about it. And that's a shame.

He's going to become the Democrats' Robert Dole.

[Padraig18]

18. Yes, he could have been a great President.

I was initially drawn to him, after Al Gore announced he wouldn't run, but he lost me just like he did so many others with his IWR vote. I can forgive that vote easily enough, should he win the nomination, but I cannot forget it when selecting a candidate to support in the primaries.

Not that most Kerry supporters would likely believe it, but the decision saddens me.

[Jack_Dawson]

6. Not a chance in hell

Dean's lead is secure in N.H. as it should be. He governed the next-door state for 12 years! But wouldn't it be sweet, all the same?

[cavebat2000]

8. I am worried

What if these primaries take soo long to actually define a winning candidate than wont those canidates be spending more money on beating Democrats than beating bush? This isn't good.

[cally]

9. Deans support seems to holding steady

So almost all the undecideds would have to break to Clark and care enough about him to go out an vote. I think the gap may narrow, but I doubt he can win. Hey, I went and looked at the numbers this morning also. Nice dream.

I agree with others. Clark wins if he comes in second. He becomes the story.

[Dookus]

12. I agree with you Cally...

but two weeks ago I was praying (as only an atheist can pray) for a Clark second-place finish. Now it appears he has a solid 2nd place. And he's rising and Dean is slipping slowly.

I agree with Skinner and the other posters above that a strong 2nd for clark is a win. If he's within 5 points of Dean, it's huge.

But the crazy wild rumplemintz-fueled part of me believes there's a possibility of Clark winning NH outright. I don't think it's likely. But for the first time, I think it's possible.

For the first time, I wish he'd played in Iowa. His biggest threat is a big Gephardt win in Iowa. That could hurt Clark a lot.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

36. I agree that Clark will not win NH but Dean's numbers are NOT holding

steady.

[Clark4Prez]

11. It's possible, but..

I think several things would have to happen and in short order.

First, I think that candidates other than Dean would have to hold steady or drop.

Edwards (3%) and Kucinich (2%) have held, Lieberman (8%) has risen 2 points in the last two days,Kerry (11%) has dropped 3 and Gep (5%) has dropped one, Braun and Sharpton aren't even in the game. Total dedicated to all of the above 29%.

Undecided is 16% and candidates (other than Dean) are at 29%, making for a total of 45%. Clark will have to pull a third of all of these in order to pull a tie, and that assumes that Dean wouldn't pull any, which is unlikely. Clark is going to have to pull at least 5% from Dean and 33% of all other votes to pull it off.

It is a possible scenario, but is unlikely. But, if anyone can pull off an unlikely scenario, its the General.

[Dookus]

15. thanks Clark4

I think that's a pretty astute evaluation.

I'm not claiming that I think Clark can win. It just occurred to me for the first time today that it was even possible, after seeing the latest NH poll.

And NH is famous for fucking up all our expectations.

For a variety of reasons, I still think Gephardt could be the big wrench in the machine.

[Snivi Yllom]

14. its getting close

going to be a horse race....photo finish?

[DancingBear]

16. I'll hold to an earlier statement

I talked with some NH TV folks (political reporters) in mid-Dec, when Dean was at 45%. They said he would win with 32-34%. Sounds about right to me.

That said, who knows where the General will end up. Hell, I was hoping for 15%... :) :) :) :)

[Dookus]

17. If that's the case...

then Clark will have a much better finish than anticipated. If Dean gets 33%, then Clark will probably get 28-30%.

That puts him in striking distance of a real win.

[dave29]

19. If Kerry takes second

in Iowa - which is not out of the realm of possibility - he will take some momentum into NH - and that will spell trouble for Clark and Dean there. Making things all aroundmore interesting.

[KittyWampus]

20. Clark In A Strong Third Is Fine

and STRONG is the operative word.

[KaraokeKarlton]

22. It's going to be a 3 way race for 2nd

between Kerry, Lieberman and Clark. They are all battling it out to be the "anti-Dean". Lieberman might pull off a surprise second place showing in NH. He has moved to NH and is there on the ground every day. NH is also a pretty conservative state. Kerry has decent support in NH, but he needs to spend some more time there quickly to keep second place. He's slipping because he's not there. I did just see a new Kerry ad today on tv, though. Dean hasn't run a NH ad for awhile, but I suspect he will run another one very soon. Since the other 3 racing for second are basically all competing for the non-Dean votes and Dean's support is rock solid, no one is going to be able to beat Dean in NH. I'm predicting that Dean gets between 40% and 50% in NH, possibly over 50%. Liberman, Kerry and Clark will split the rest of the vote for the most part. The others won't get much support, and not enough to really speak of.

[Raya]

23. Clark get even close. It's a win. Media already on the story.

[maddezmom]

24. anything is possible

but I'm thinking 2nd is good enough. :)

[copithorne]

25. Yes he can

I grew up in New Hampshire. I've watched a lot of campaigns there.

Nobody in the whole country has voted yet. All we have is vapor and media spin and polls. In the week before the primary, New Hampshire people call each other up and they figure out who they are going to vote for by making up their own minds.

People may not recall Gary Hart coming out of nowhere to destroy Walter Mondale in New Hampshire. The polliing operations at that time weren't talking about things changing a point a day. They were talking about things changing a point an hour in the weekend before the primary.

Right now we are at 20% plus 16% undecided with Howard Dean polling at %35.

Now, Howard Dean I'm sure has a fabulous campaign in New Hampshire. He's got energized supporters, he's going to do well. He's likely to win it.

But I want to remind people that if you've watched New Hampshire primaries you know that things can change a lot and that momentum has a way of building on itself.

[Leilani]

32. I agree with you about New Hampshire

This race is too soon to call; New Hampshire people will make up their own minds when they're good & ready.

It's difficult to poll there because of all the Independents & undeclared people. In 2000 McCain shocked everyone by winning by a huge margin.

Wait till 4-7 days before the primary & look to see who is drawing in the big crowds, & that will be your winner.

[jonnyblitz]

26. yup. n/t

[Rowdyboy]

27. At this point, I'm starting to worry

about Clark peaking too soon!

Special thanks to the folks from New Hampshire for giving us insight into the workings of your states interesting politics.

[jpgpenn]

29. What's most telling is...

Dean has been campaigning there for some time, 2 years if I understand correctly. Clark has been there a few months.

[Lobo_13]

30. Too be completely honest

Clark had more name recognition and led the polls when he entered the race to begin with, being the CNN war guy and all. He didn't exactly come from nowhere like Dean.

I think he suffered a precipitous drop after the initial shine wore off, but he's been gamely working his way back up the ladder.

[billbuckhead]

37. Yeah, Dean came from nowhere

Vermont!

[Lobo_13]

31. It depends on how they decide to spin it.

Because the case can be made that a strong showing was the result of him spending more time and money in NH than anyone else.

Keep in mind that the surprises that come out of NH are usually from people who were behind in the polls the day before. Steady growth is not a story in and of itself.

[MoonRiver]

33. That's a monstrously awesome thought, which I also wouldn't have

believed possible two weeks ago. Now, especially after the latest NH poll, I think there's a solid chance. If Clark takes NH and then SC, as expected, I predict we're in for a wondrous journey right into the White House! Chooo, chooo!!

[Tatiana]

38. Personally, I think Dean will inch out a victory.

But I believe Clark will be right behind him. Remember delegates are awarded proportionately, so Clark can still claim "victory," if you will, even if he comes in second. Things are looking EXTREMELY good for Clark lately.

[Printer70]

39. Clark will not win because NH...

...knows the difference between a candidate with a record of progressive achievement versus a poll-tested DLC candidate with zero political experience.