NBC Poll: Bush holds narrow lead

[democraticinsurgent]

Here's one that we've been hearing about:

WASHINGTON - Less than six weeks before Election Day, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows President Bush with a lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry — but it's within the margin of error, and it's much smaller than some other recent post-GOP convention polls indicate.

Still, the survey has some troubling numbers for Kerry as he tries to close Bush's narrow lead: Female voters aren't flocking to the Massachusetts senator as they have to past Democratic candidates, and a solid majority of overall voters believes he doesn't have a message, or doesn't know what he would do if elected.

The poll, conducted by Hart/McInturff, shows Bush receiving support from 48 percent of registered voters, Kerry getting 45 percent, and Nader getting 2 percent. Among likely voters (defined as those expressing high interest in the November election, who represent 78 percent of the survey), Bush holds a four-point lead over Kerry, 50 percent to 46 percent.

"The difference between those couple of points and being in a dead-even race is modest," said GOP pollster Bill McInturff. "This is not a difficult race to get quickly back to being functionally tied."

added link on edit: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6073871/

[Cha]

1. Sorry, that's a poll I don't

believe!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Hmmm

The numbers are the same as Zogby....

[DaveinMD]

3. the internals

show great room for growth. He just needs to return the normal gender gap and he'll win. This race has tightened and Kerry is a good closer.

[Mantra]

4. What they said in 2000

The final NBC/WSJ poll, also conducted by Peter Hart, was done on November 3rd-5th. They published these numbers:

Bush 47
Gore 44

[newyawker99]

20. Hi Mantra!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[buycitgo]

5. did you love the way Potato Boy STRESSED the internals that

favored the chimp, like the woman's vote, seemingly a problem for Kerry, AND, especially the one saying that a HUGE number of people think Bush has a clearer, more defined message than Kerry?

[Cha]

18. Oh yeah, this ORWELL'S

"1984"

[sonicx]

6. in this poll, if kerry leads women by 3 and trails the whole race by 3...

bush must be doing bad among men.

[DaveinMD]

7. the women's vote thing

is actually good news for Kerry. Kerry will reestablish the gender gap. These voters are predesposed to support Kerry and will return as the campaign continues.

[Warren DeMontague]

9. How about reminding women what'll happen if Bush appoints 3 SCOTUS judges?

I realize that "the punditry" has declared the reproductive choice issue "irrelevant" and even "passe"-- but I think the GOP's reactionary extremism on a whole slew of social issues is a card that we are woefully under-playing, and I think it would help us- even in the swing states.

[flpoljunkie]

12. I think they will swing back to Kerry; they were momentarily

taken in during the RNC by Rudi "Cashing in on 09-11" Guiliani* and John McCain, the Republican who used to have some shred of integrity, and perhaps influenced by the Chenen terrorists bombing of the school in Besla, Russia.

Bush will not make you safer. His war in Iraq has increased the threat of terrorism in this country and recruitment of al Qaeda militants all over the world.

Kerry has decided to take Bush on on his "strong suit" of handling terrorism--since the media ain't gonna tell the truth to the American people about Bush's catastrophic failures in Iraq. Bush's terrorism creds exists only because the sorry media has not done their job, but instead have propped up this inept, neocon puppet.

*Guiliani Partners has the Bush administration contract to study the safety of reimported drugs from Canada and other countries, Can you guess what they will decide? Bernard Kerik, the man who fled from Baghdad, and failed to finish his contract to train Iraqi police, is his partner in this enterprise.

[Crachet2004]

8. This is a big part of our problem...The Democratic Party has NOTHING...

Or very little for its BASE. Afraid to say anything on behalf of women, minorities and labor, I guess...wouldn't want to get YELLED at by the GOP.

Afraid to say a word that actually means anything, while the GOP has delivered for THEIR constituency (the have mores), on everything they could have ever possibly have dreamed of...except the total destruction of Social Security; and THAT is coming!

I guess I am just sick of being in a defensive mode all the time.

It was Samuel Gompers, I believe who said, when asked what Labor wanted: "More", he said, "we want more".

And that is what I want. I want more for the constituencies that make up the Democratic Party. Grow the damn base. Do that by taking care of those elements in society that put us in office.

Almost every eligible person who is wealthy enough to call themselves a republican, is already voting...and many vote GOP who absolutely should NOT be doing so-like ANYONE who carries a lunch pail.

That means most of the 'silent majority', or near majority, WOULD BE VOTING FOR US, if we would just give them a reason to do so!

When I read that John Kerry is having trouble with the women's vote, I can only shake my head.

This is simply something that should never be-and we have no one to blame, but ourselves.

[DaveinMD]

11. I'm sorry

but women are not the base. Minority women are the base. White women have always been a very competitive demographic. Kerry isn't doing as well with that group because of the terrorism issue. After the debates, when he proves they can trust him on that issue he'll win because they like his position a lot more on the economy and especially health care.

[Crachet2004]

19. White women are part of our base too, Dave...

Some of them vote GOP, but then, so does nearly half of organized labor, which is also part of our base.

The point of the post, was that we haven't been doing proper maintenance OF our base, and that perhaps our base would be bigger, if we DID-including our percentage of white women voters.

[DaveinMD]

22. I disagree

White women are a swing constituency because they go back and forth in elections. By the way, I agree that our party does a poor job of communicating with base voters.

[hansolsen]

14. I agree. Well said. N/T

[underpants]

10. NBC / WSJ could only show 48-45 W? Hahahahha

That giant sucking sound you hear is W fake bounce going away.

[Robbien]

13. "a solid majority of overall voters believes he doesn't have a message,

or doesn't know what he would do if elected "

Kerry just gave two large speeches in the last week outlining his message, but mainstream media didn't cover them. Unless you are actually in the audience at one of the rallies or go online, there is no way to find out what the message is.

[Mantra]

15. This poll ended before Kerry spoke

So the poll is measuring the sentiment that existed prior to Kerry's speech, and everything else he did this week.

[hansolsen]

16. This poll done Sep 17 - 19, misses the last three days which have been

great for Kerry, especially in clarifying his stand on Iraq. Given that trend line, this race is dead even in the polls, which means Kerry has a clear shot at winning this thing.

The key will be turnout on Nov 2. I am very opptimistic about Dem turnout, and I'll bet every blogger on DU feels the same way.

[Pirate Smile]

17. Shrub problems shown in the poll:

"But Bush has some troubling signs of his own. Even though the president has a slight lead in this poll, when voters were asked what they would want in a second term for Bush, 58 percent say they want major changes, compared with only 9 percent who say they want his second term to look a lot like his first term. "Look, he has to prove that he will pivot" in a second term, said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. Yet McInturff, the GOP pollster, added that this is something Bush can accomplish at the upcoming debates.

And heading into those debates, this poll — with a near-even horse race and problematic signs for both Bush and Kerry — shows that the presidential contest could be as close as the one four years ago. "For now, the race has all the hallmarks of a photo finish," Hart said."

[deckerd]

26. What voters would want in a second term? What a stupid question

If asked of all voters, all this tells us is that only 8% of Republicans want major changes, maybe less.

If asked of * supporters, it is frankly, alot like asking retirees what they would like in a second mortgage. If they're stupid enough to feel they want one, why does it matter?

Thank You Sir May I Have Another? I will be your eager driver, your service provider, your maitre d!

[Smarmie Doofus]

21. Tim Russert looked like he was...

at his grandma's funeral as he delivered the news that the race was "tightening up". Then he brightened as he noted that Kerry was having "poblems with women," and was weak on some specific issues.

What a travesty.

Still, a three point spread at this point is not bad, IMHO.

Paul

[Zynx]

24. Gore was three points behind in this poll going into election day.

[Doohickie]

23. No problem...

"Still, the survey has some troubling numbers for Kerry as he tries to close Bush's narrow lead: Female voters aren't flocking to the Massachusetts senator as they have to past Democratic candidates, and a solid majority of overall voters believes he doesn't have a message, or doesn't know what he would do if elected."

He is handling this already-- the appearances at NYU, Orlando, etc., were substantive policy speaches, and he turned on the charm on Regis and will continue to do so on other daytime television appearances.

He's closing strong.

[Gloria]

25. Polling between Sept 17-19...doesn't take in a lot of Kerry's recent

firepower.....appearances on Letterman & Regis; post- UN speeches; and appearances by Edwards.

Misses all the recent action...bigtime!!