Boston Globe~Caucus-night vote-swapping could tilt Iowa

[maddezmom]

Caucus-night vote-swapping could tilt Iowa
By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 1/9/2004

DES MOINES -- For the first time in decades, a quirk in the Iowa nominating contest on Jan. 19 -- vote-swapping on caucus night -- could determine the outcome of the Democratic presidential contest here, according to advisers for several campaigns who are mapping strategies to swing stray votes in the final hours.

With candidates required to win at least 15 percent of the voters in each precinct to survive, strategists assume a number of candidates will fall short -- freeing their caucus voters to support other campaigns.

Several campaigns are developing ways to swing support in some of the 1,990 precincts on caucus night -- to benefit their own candidate or to hurt someone else.

At headquarters for Howard Dean, advisers are working on an automated system that would let precinct captains dial in early tallies. Knowing how Dean is faring statewide would allow the campaign to advise its supporters to throw Dean votes in some precincts to another candidate.

Where the supporters of the low-performing candidates wind up, and whether the leading candidates have spare delegates to throw to other campaigns, depends entirely on how the numbers break in the first round of voting.

~snip~

more: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/01/09/caucus_night_vote_swapping_could_tilt_iowa?mode=PF


interesting stuff :)

[tedoll78]

1. If I were an Iowa resident..

I'd be that Machiavellian. I love political math games like this! :)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. I hear Dean wants to use Kerry to hold off Clark

of course, that's assuming Dean has more votes than Kerry on caucus night.

[KaraokeKarlton]

3. Clark isn't even competing in Iowa

and he's not even registering in the polls there.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. to knock Clark back in NH

they don't want Kerry to do too badly in NH, because they fear Clark more, and want to keep Clark down in NH.

[Mairead]

5. The idea that anyone can walk in off the street is very disturbing

No proof of party affiliation, not even any proof of residency--it should tell us how little our rulers respect the idea of democracy.

Alexis de Tocqueville was right -- our system mocks democracy.

[LuminousX]

7. Do you have a citation for that?

I don't ever recall de Tocqueville saying our system mocks democracy. Maybe you are paraphrasing something from him I am less familiar with.

[iowapeacechief]

8. You can't "just walk in"

I'm an Iowa caucus chair. If we don't find you on our printout, we will require you to register on the spot. If none of your neighbors can step up and vouch for you, you will be pretty conspicuous. It won't be that hard to figure out whether or not you really belong. Believe me, I will ask other caucus attenders if I have any doubts. If it turns out you mistakenly came to the wrong site, we'll figure that out quickly and send you on your way.

What concerns me more is the chance of any campaign actually managing to "throw" the caucus somehow, e.g., by redeploying "extra" supporters.

[Mairead]

9. Then Iowa does it better than Minnesota used to

because when I was a delegate, I was the only one from my neighborhood--nobody could have vouched for me (and nobody tried. Or tried to question me, either).

If you guys can keep the ringers out, that's great. But I can imagine a scenario (perhaps this is what you mean by 'extra supporters') in which a legitimate delegate vouches for imports from out of state.

[maddezmom]

6. Kick

:kick: