Christina Romer: On the Employment Situation in October

[ProSense]

On the Employment Situation in October

Posted by Christina Romer

Today's employment report contained both signs of hope for recovery and painful evidence of continued labor market weakness.

Payroll employment declined 190,000 in October, continuing the steady trend of moderating job loss that began last spring. Furthermore, the employment loss in both August and September was revised down substantially. Importantly, employment in temporary help services, typically one of the first industries to see job gains, increased by 33,700. The motor vehicle industry also posted employment gains. These are hopeful signs that the unprecedented policy actions are working to stabilize the economy and put us on a path toward recovery.

The unemployment rate, however, rose four-tenths of a percentage point, to 10.2 percent. That this occurred despite the rise in real GDP last quarter reflects both the typical lag between GDP growth and unemployment decline, and the recent exceptional increases in productivity. Having the unemployment rate reach double-digits is a stark reminder of how much work remains to be done before American families see the job gains and reduced unemployment that they need and deserve.

[redqueen]

1. "employment loss in both August and September was revised down substantially"

What does that mean?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. That fewer jobs were lost than initially estimated

A lot of government economic stats are an estimate that is revised over time as more data becomes available.

[redqueen]

3. Thanks...

I'm familiar with them revising numbers after a while... but I wasn't sure which number that referred to.

I hope this month's numbers end up being revised downard as well... not that that would make the news. :P

[smoochpooch]

4. I really like that graph.

It provides some perspective on what we are hearing about job losses.

[FatDave]

5. Woohoo!

We're bleeding jobs more slowly now! How optimistic I now feel!