NY-23: Owens Barely Leads as Hoffman Gains

[ccharles000]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/26-28, likely voters, 10/19-21 in parentheses):

Bill Owens (D): 33 (35)
Dede Scozzafava (R): 21 (30)
Doug Hoffman (C): 32 (23)
Undecided: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4%)

The new poll of NY-23 from Research 2000 doesn't go as far as the two Doug Hoffman internal polls in showing the Hoffman surge (they showed him in the lead), but they do give the momentum to the Conservative Party candidate. Democrat Bill Owens has lost a little ground, while Republican Dede Scozzafava has basically collapsed over the last couple weeks. Hoffman's performance is strongest among independents -- I's go 47% for Hoffman, with 28 for Owens and 11 for Scozzafava -- while also leading among Republicans (41 for Hoffman, 34 for Scozzafava, and 13 for Owens).

Scozzafava's approvals have also fallen like a rock (down to 32/46), compared with 38/23 for Hoffman and 36/26 for Owens. We'll get some more confirmation on these trends soon, as Siena and PPP both have polls in the works here too.

There's a lot else going on in the 23rd:

• New 48 hours reports show Hoffman leading the field in fundraising over the last couple days ($32K, including contributions from the leadership PACs of Reps. Steve King, John Linder, and Jeff Flake), Owens not far behind at $27K, and Scozzafava lagging at $12K.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5821/ny23-owens-barely-leads-as-hoffman-gains

[hedgehog]

1. I've had at least one call from a gay rights organization asking me

to support Scozzafava over Owens. I'm going with Owens because he supports the bulk of Obama's agenda and I think he can be brought around on human rights issues.

[derby378]

2. A gay activist voting for Scozzafava is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders

:eyes: