What Senator Kerry did in Afghanistan - including a shura (traditional meeting) with tribal elders!

[karynnj]

Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, has played a mediating role since he arrived in Kabul on Friday. He met with opposition candidate Abdullah Abdullah and had a meeting and two meals with Karzai, delaying his flight to Pakistan yesterday until well past midnight because their talks lasted longer than expected, aides said.
<snip>
Aides said Kerry’s message in private to Karzai echoed his public remarks, aired by CNN yesterday, that Karzai should accept the Electoral Complaints Commission ruling and that President Obama should wait until Afghan leaders resolve the crisis before sending more troops to bolster the Afghan government.
<snip>
Kerry closely coordinated his negotiations with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton; Richard Holbrooke, the president’s special representative on Afghanistan and Pakistan; and US Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry.

On Friday, Kerry dined with troops from Massachusetts in Kabul. Yesterday, he visited Marines in the war-torn Helmand Province and held a shura, or traditional meeting, with 275 elders

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/10/19/kerry_pushes_for_runoff_election_in_afghanistan/

I wish there were video of Kerry holding the shura!

[eridani]

1. Hope Obama pays attention to him when he gets back n/t

[karynnj]

2. I seriously doubt that Obama would not take any of his observations seriously

- even if he chooses a different position. I noticed yesterday that Rahm Emmannuel on State of the Union came close to using the same words Kerry had used the day before in his taped interview. It is entirely likely that their comments were genuinely independent or it could mean that Kerry had spoken to Obama (or Emmanuel). I suspect Kerry would have spoken to someone in the administration to give a quick summary of his view before the interview, rather than catch them off guard.

[Clio the Leo]

4. I have no doubt they're all working together on this....

... and the similarities of the interviews was proof of that.

If it weren't for John Kerry calling him and asking him to make a speech, Barack Obama might not be President now. I don't think the President would feel obliged to him for that reason alone, but between him, VPOTUS and Sen Kerry, there has to be a lot of shared understanding on the matter.

[karynnj]

6. They are all working together

Even those with divergent views. It always seemed to me that in any group, the best decisions often came only after civilized discussions seriously examining the possibilities, trying to find a solution that minimizes the risks and maximizes the chances for success. This may be end up being a future "classic" example of how Obama makes decisions by having many capable people with divergent opinions work together. One thing that has to guarantee is that it gives the best chance that the downsides, as well as the potential, are adequately analyzed.

I agree with you, that any political debt Obama has to Kerry, would not bring him into this. What brings him into this is that he is one the most knowledgeable and creative people in this area. In addition, he, as chair of SFRC, was able to have those hearings that likely could have brought additional insight beyond Kerry's own views.

[ObamaKerryDem]

15. Good points.

I was encouraged to see that they seem to be on the same (or a similar, at least) page on this. I think the President and those in the administration (like Emmanuel) really value Sen. Kerry's advice. He does know a thing or two about the subject, after all, from personal experience no less...

[Cha]

24. I have no doubt

that he will.

[vaberella]

3. Thanks for the info Karynnj.

YOur knowledge on the topic definitely helped me a lot in understanding what's going on. Thanks for the article. There's no way I can say that Obama is definitely not having Kerry around adivsory role and that Kerry is not in the know of the meetings. This is enough information to say otherwise. Thanks again.

[karynnj]

5. Thanks for your kind words

(and really thanks to the Boston Globe for this comprehensive article.)

[Clio the Leo]

7. Karynnj is quicking becoming the official voice.....

.... of reason on matters related to Afghanistan around here isn't she? Nothing better than an informed opinion.

She and Prosense are two of my favorite journalists. :)

[karynnj]

8. Thanks for the compliment, Though I think others deserve that compliment far more

I really do not qualify as a journalist, I simply know where the SFRC and CSPAN websites are and can cut and paste good article. There are real journalists who do the hard research and provide the primary source information that we all cut and paste.

Where I fail is that I am not at all balanced in what I have read or watched. (ie I watched the 5 SFRC hearings, but didn't even think to look at the Armed Services Committee's hearings (come on,both Lieberman and McCain are there) - I just looked and saw they did have a hearing back in April.) But, in a forum, others do provide balance to my bias.

So, though I have tried to follow what is in the press and in internet viewable hearings, there is a lot of selection bias in my choices. I actually find myself less certain of what is happening and what can be done the more I read or hear. I think that all the people involved in trying to work out a strategy - including McChrystal, Gates and Clinton - are all using every bit of intelligence and focus they have to find the least bad solution. Obama will really need at least our willingness to listen and consider with open minds whatever reasons he lays out when he makes this really hard choice. No matter what he does, there will be extreme anger from some side.

[Jennicut]

9. I agree that he is trying to find the least bad solution.

I too was interested in what Rahm had to say this weekend. I think they are putting pressure on Karzai for sure. Everything I have heard from Emmanuel, Kerry, and Biden is that they are wary of a troop escalation with lack of cooperation from Karzai. I remember when Biden walked out on Karzai last year during a meeting when he wouldn't answer questions about corruption in his govt. I am so glad Kerry is there as the head of the SFRC, he really knows this whole situation well. I read that Biden is still keeping in constant touch with Hagel too. I think these are great people to advise the President. I am a bit wary of McChrystal but we shall see.

[karynnj]

10. Biden has strong ties to Kerry and Hagel

When I was reading lots of the Pakistani articles, I read one where Kerry spoke of the origin of the approach that became the Kerry/Lugar/Berman aid bill. He said it started in discussions after he, Hagel and Biden were in Pakistan after the earthquake. The three of them saw the impact that the US response had there and it was then that they developed the basic plan. (This was the same trip they were forced to land in snow in Afghanistan. Every time I've heard Kerry speak of the bill, he has always mentioned Biden's role. (Here is Biden's statement speaking of that trip and an early statement of what they were proposing - http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2008/BidenStatement080228a.pdf link to whole hearing if interested - http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/2008/hrg080228a.html )

Did you see this NYT article? Kerry really gives Biden strong praise and support here - which likely was welcomed as few have publicly supported him.

“The vice president is asking great questions and he understands this issue very, very deeply,” said Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Mr. Biden’s successor as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. “He’s been there many times. He knows the issues and the personalities very well. He’s set out a good analysis.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/14/world/14biden.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=Biden&st=cse


Hagel is now associated with the American Security Project, which was created as a bipartisan think tank. Senator Kerry was one of (or THE) key founders. Gary Hart leads it and Susan Rice and George Mitchell were at one time associated with it.

The American Security Project announced Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) is joining its bipartisan board of directors.

Hagel is joining fellow Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) on the board, as well as retired Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni and Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state in the Bush administration.

“Sen. Hagel’s record speaks for itself,” said former Sen. Gary Hart (D-Colo.), ASP’s president and chairman. “His willingness to question assumptions and his courage to speak difficult truths are qualities that are needed to end the paralysis that dominates the discussion of national security issues today. He has been an eloquent advocate for the use of all the instruments of American power, and we enthusiastically welcome him to the board.”

Hagel announced this fall that he will leave the Senate at the end of his current term.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7370.html

[Jennicut]

16. Thanks for all the info...you really do know this issue better then anyone here!

Kerry giving support to Biden was good. Too many so called experts are just willing to get behind the troop escalation without really thinking it through. We have very little reason to trust Karzai and counter insurgency is hard to do without a willing partner.

[Inuca]

12. "No matter what he does

there will be extreme anger from some side". Probably more than one side. It's an incredibly tightly wound knot, and it is way too easy to criticize any decision that will eventually be made. Valid criticism, too. But it's really good to know that so many knowledgeable and wise people are involved with the issue and have Obama's ear, directly or indirectly. By all accounts, one of the things Obama does really well is listen and ask good questions.

[Clio the Leo]

19. Now bias isn't always a bad thing.....

.... I dont mind it coming from people I agree with. :)

[blm]

22. karyn, you have the patience to explain what's going on while some of us don't and go right to the

shorthand steeped in the many years of watching this region even before 9-11.

Your way is very helpful to those still working to understand, and the corporate newsmedia has NOT been helpful to them in that regard, especially the last 10 years.

[karynnj]

11. At least from this link, a shura sounds like a town hall with no women allowed

But I would bet people can't behave as badly as the worst of our teabaggers,
http://blog.al.com/afghanistan/2007/10/there_shura_are_a_lot_of_peopl.html

[Inuca]

13. Wasn't Karzai initially nominated

by a shura? DId not check it, but that's what I remember.

[harun]

14. Shura = council. So if they had the equivalent of a city council meeting it

would likely be "shura" something or another.

[karynnj]

17. Thanks

[burning rain]

18. Kerry would help a lot if....

he'd announce that under no circumstances will he support increasing troop levels in Afghanistan, and that any hope of creating decent nationwide governance in Afghanistan is absurd. Too brutal and categorical to expect, though.

[karynnj]

25. That would be absurdly counterproductive

The fact is his comments have been very clear that without good governance, he can't support more or possibly even the current mission. Now, what is the likely impact. Just as his deadline was intended as a lever in Iraq to make the politicians resolve their issues, it seems to me that this is a lever to say - if you make a real, serious attempt at good governance, we will help (likely both to help them provide safety and aid (from us and the rest of the world) to build infrastructure. If, not - you might be on your own. Consider what that means - if they are on their own, they will be at huge risk - especially Kharzi, who will be seen as the US imposed leader.

Is it just Kerry you would like to do this? What of the official Obama team? Would you want Clinton to say that? What about Holbrooke?

[burning rain]

27. It's nothing against Kerry in particular.

But rather anyone who holds out the absurd hope of good nationwide governance in Afghanistan. Who are we kidding? A country of illiterate peasants crazed with fundamentalist religion and riven along tribal lines, and they're going to have anything like a reasonable government that covers the whole country? We need to put aside that delusion.

The realistic US interest lies in not allowing Afghanistan to be a haven for building terrorist infrastructure with international reach. I'm all for propping up a more-or-less reasonable regime in Kabul, and cutting deals with local leaders across the countryside as need be, so as to create a measure of stability across the territory of Aghanistan. That, and interdict serious terrorist groups, while not indulging fantasies of building democracy or a unified nation-state.

[karynnj]

28. Kerry has made it clear he is not speaking of making them a western democracy,

something he said won't happen. Kerry, at least, is simply speaking of a functional government that protects its people.

In one hearing, he spoke of the importance of making things better enough that people have a vested interest in the country, because otherwise counterterrorism won't work because the terrorists killed or captured would be replaced by an endless pool of recruits. Kerry has argued that Obama's goal is what you said - keeping it from becoming a haven for terrorists.

The phrase "good enough governance" comes from one of the witness to one of the SFRC hearing. The phrase ended up being picked up by the other witnesses in their responses and Kerry used it (and credited it to the witness) in an op-ed. This was the minimum level that would work - certainly not what any of us would call "good nationwide governance".

[alsame]

20. Senator Kerry has returned to Kabul.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/10/19/2103167.aspx

Aides to Sen. John Kerry tell NBC News that he returned to Kabul tonight to continue negotiations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. And Kerry will be in place tomorrow for an anticpated announcement by Karzai about the election results. Hillary Clinton said this afternoon she was "encouraged" that Karzai will abide by the constitution and accept the Electoral Complaints Commission results that left him with 48% of the vote.

Kerry spent the day in Islamabad before returning to Kabul, where he had spent the weekend. Aides say Kerry spent a lot of one-on-one time with Karzai on Saturday and Sunday, including dinner both nights.

Kerry has been coordinating closely with the State Department. A senior State Department official said, "We have been telling Karzai ... to accept the results. That will be imporant."

If there is a runoff, the official said, the administration expects Karzai will win. Secretary Clinton, Kerry and the U.S. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry have made it clear to Karzai that he will have U.S. support if he agrees to tackle corruption, the official said.

The official said the election mess must be sorted out in the next three to four weeks before the Winter season starts and that a runoff election would take two to three weeks to complete.

"There is still enough time barely to have a credible election," the official said.

[ProSense]

21. Interesting. Thanks. n/t

[blm]

23. Heavy stuff going on.

.

[karynnj]

26. That is interesting

Nice that Kerry was there to help on this. He, like Biden, has known Kharzi for years.

[Inuca]

29. And for good reason

Among those most closely involved in seeking a resolution of the crisis is Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He said in interviews over the weekend from Kabul that the election process must be settled legitimately before the Obama administration can make a reasoned decision about whether to send additional troops and to commit other resources to stabilizing Afghanistan.

A Kerry spokesman in Washington, Frederick Jones, said Kerry returned to Kabul on Monday after meetings in Pakistan and met with Karzai again. It was Kerry's fourth meeting with the president in as many days, and the first since the U.N. commission's announcement that it found substantial numbers of fraudulent votes.

"He is looking for a way forward to legitimize the election and empower effective government," Jones said.

Kerry will remain in Kabul on Tuesday, with further meetings scheduled, Jones added.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33376183/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/

Also interesting in the same article (and I am not sure what to make of it):

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, meanwhile, said the Obama administration needs to decide on a war strategy and not "sit on our hands" waiting for election results and a government to emerge in Kabul. In remarks to reporters traveling with him to Asia, the Pentagon chief said President Barack Obama will have to make his decisions in the context of "evolving" issues.

[karynnj]

30. An article from 5 minutes ago (Reuters) makes JK's role even clearer

They say he will have a joint press conference with Kharzi today. (I would assume that means that something has been agreed to.)

Afghan President Hamid Karzai and U.S. Senator John Kerry met in Kabul on Tuesday and will appear together at a news conference, officials said, as pressure mounts on Karzai to accept a run-off vote after a disputed election.
<snip>
"We can confirm that Karzai and Senator Kerry are still meeting," a spokesman for the U.S. embassy in Kabul said.

Afghanistan's state television broadcaster, RTA, said it would broadcast a live news conference with Karzai and Kerry, a Democrat and chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Kerry returned to Afghanistan after a visit earlier in the week to continue talks over the election.

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-43294820091020

[karynnj]

32. Kerry's comment

KABUL (Reuters) - U.S. Senator John Kerry said on Tuesday that the November 7 run-off in Afghanistan's presidential election would be difficult, but praised incumbent Hamid Karzai's endorsement of the vote.

"The international community is committed to carry out this election ... and to make the runoff a success," he told a news conference in Kabul alongside Karzai after hours of talks.

"We know it will be difficult and require sacrifice. But we are committed to this effort," he said. Kerry said Karzai had shown "great leadership with his decision.".

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE59J2QP20091020

[karynnj]

31. Kharzi has a news conference, with JK and the UN's Kai Eide - there will be a run off

Afghanistan will hold a deciding round of its problem-hit presidential election on 7 November, officials say.

The run-off will take place between President Hamid Karzai and his main rival Abdullah Abdullah.

The news comes a day after a UN-backed panel said it had clear evidence of fraud in August's first round, lowering Mr Karzai's vote share below 50%

Mr Karzai told a news conference that he accepted the findings, adding they were a "step forward" for democacy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8316487.stm

It is amazing that Kharzi actually publicly accepted that there was fraud. UN envoy Kai Eide and Senator John Kerry were with him. Kerry called it a great opportunity and turning point.

[karynnj]

33. Here is Obama's statement

I welcome President Karzai's statement today accepting the Independent Electoral Commission's certification of the August 20 election results, and agreeing to participate in a second round of the election. This is an important step forward in ensuring a credible process for the Afghan people which results in a government that reflects their will.

While this election could have remained unresolved to the detriment of the country, President Karzai's constructive actions established an important precedent for Afghanistan's new democracy. The Afghan Constitution and laws are strengthened by President Karzai's decision, which is in the best interests of the Afghan people.

I congratulate the Afghan people on the patience and resilience they have shown throughout this long election process. Given Afghanistan's recent history, it is extraordinary that they were able to overcome threats and violence to express their democratic right to choose their leader. Insecurity in the country prevented some Afghans from voting, but it is a testimony to the bravery of the Afghan people that so many of them did come out to vote in the first round under tremendously difficult circumstances.

I commend both the Independent Electoral Commission and the Electoral Complaints Commission for carrying out their mandates. Throughout this process, the United States has been interested above all in the strength and independence of those institutions, and the need for them to fulfill their mandate on behalf of all Afghans.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2009/10/620000140/1

[karynnj]

34. video of Kerry and Kharzi at the the Press Conference

Kerry does a wonderful job putting things in perspective.

http://www.necn.com/Boston/World/2009/10/20/Afghan-President-Embraces/1256044515.html