High voter turnout expected--biggest since 60's

[A_Possum]

With registered Republican and Democratic voters largely holed up in their respective partisan camps, the Bush and Kerry campaigns have launched vigorous get-out-the-vote initiatives.

Among the targets are independents, party crossovers, and an estimated 92 million voters who sat out the 2000 election, including 4 million evangelical Christians who could be expected to back Bush.

Curtis Gans, director of nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said 2004 election turnout is likely to be the largest in 12 years and could be the biggest since the 1960s.

"One thing that's concrete is that voter interest is substantially higher this year than at any time in 2000," said Gans, who believes higher turnout would favor Kerry.

High Voter Turnout Expected (look halfway down article)

This is what is not showing in the polls. It's the 2-ft wave out on the ocean, that's not even noticed by a ship as it rolls past, but it contains enough energy that when it hits the shore it's a tsunami the size of a 10 story building. Look out, Bush. It's comin for ya.

[SheilaT]

1. On the other hand

all these reports that Bush is vastly far ahead in the polling could suppress voting, which of course would favor Republicans.

In 1976 I was taking a psych class at Northern Virginia Community College. On election day that year, at the start of class, the professor said, "As I'm sure you all know today is election day, and I certainly hope that all of you are registered to vote and are planning on voting today. However, I want to remind you that a lighter voter turnout favors Republicans, so if you're a Republican, don't vote."

I was the only student who got it.

[A_Possum]

2. Hehe!

Well, I know that's the common wisdom about the polls, but I think in this election there is a different dynamic. The article goes on to point out the high emotion involved this time, and the greatest amount of it is on the side of those who are appalled by Bush.

So I don't think turnout will be suppressed by falling behind in polls, in fact I think maybe the opposite will be the case.

[liberalnurse]

3. I love professors like that.....

a real role model.......

[readmylips]

4. New registered voters are not included in the polls....

and people whose only telephones are cell phones, are not included in the polls either. Polls are relying on the Internet for polls, and we know just how foolish these polls can be.

[goodwalt]

5. Oh Yeah

Love the tsunami image, and I entirely agree. THIS election looks to be something completely different. Say all the derisive things that you want about W (and I really mean that- God knows I do), but you have to hand it to him, he has done wonders for curing the problem of voter apathy in this country!

[demfaithful]

6. Black primary voters decline; 33% drop concerns Democrats

This is a big problem. I'll post a few paragraphs. The article was rather long and depressing. If this is true, we are in bigger trouble than I thought. We can not lose the black vote.

Attempts to fire up Broward County's black voters apparently failed last month with turnout sinking to its lowest of the past three primary elections in key minority precincts, according to a South Florida Sun-Sentinel analysis.

The study showed a 33 percent decline in 10 of the county's largest black precincts when comparing the Aug. 31 turnout with the 2002 late-summer primary. The turnout was off by 15 percent this year compared with the 2000 primary, also a presidential election year, according to the analysis.

Black voter turnout Aug. 31 was 22 percent, compared with 33 percent in 2002 and 26 percent in 2000. County voter turnout in the primaries among all ethnic groups was 18 percent this year, 22 percent in 2002 and 13 percent in 2000.

Some political observers also said the low turnout in the primary speaks to Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's need to do more in black communities to energize voters.

"He must talk more about issues such as jobs rather than fighting the war in Iraq," said George Gonzalez, a University of Miami political scientist.

Gonzalez added that reliance on any prevailing anti-President Bush sentiment to draw African-Americans to the polls in the fall is a poor strategy for Democrats.

"The strategy that African-Americans have nowhere to go except for Kerry is not true," Gonzalez said. "They may not want to cast a dirty vote. So, many may just stay home. I would not be surprised if African-Americans vote in historic lows."

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

7. You're going to have to give a link

before I even consider this article.

[demfaithful]

8. Sorry, here it is

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-cblackturnout18sep18,0,2840310.story?coll=sfla-news-broward

[goodwalt]

16. primary turn out not nec. strong indicator

I haven't read the article you rely on, but I question the linkage of PRIMARY minority voter turn out and GENERAL ELECTION voter turn out in THIS election. As a white Oklahoman, I am obviously not immenently qualified to opine on the issue, but here is my argument. Premise A- Florida blacks MUST be pissed off about being disenfranchised in the 2000 presidential election. Premise B- ANY group that is truly pissed off about being slighted, is more likely to act to remedy that slight. Conclusion- A + B = an unusually HIGH black turn out in the 2004 general election.
This makes sense to me- and there is nothing in this simplistic equation that should have lent itself to higher primary turn-out. For my part, my rabid interest in 2004 is less about love for Kerry (still a little miffed about his treatment of Dean), than it is my hatred of chimpy and what he is doing to our country. I don't think I am alone in this.

[CalProf]

9. He's a uniter! Not a divider! n/t

[roseBudd]

11. I canvass urban blacks everyday and I get the sense they are

1. angry about the economy
2. angry about Iraq

and voting Bush out because he has been bad for the economy. I also find very few unregistered blacks.

everyone seems to agree 4 more years would be unbearable. regarding the economy.

[dumpster_baby]

10. All Kerry has to do is kept the polls fairly close to avoid demoralization

If he can keep Bush's lead under 5 points, he can win. Because we all know that a lot of people are very agitated about this election, especially the young people. We can win this thing as long as our voters are not demoralized by runaway poll numbers.

[neverforget]

12. Let the fascists think they are way ahead. Better to watch their

faces and their crying when they get their asses kicked November 2 by turnout. Remember the Democratic primaries at the beginning of the year? High turnout! It's time to send der Furherer back to Crawford!

[mimitabby]

13. good news from gop land

spoke to two nice GOP gentlemen that i work with.
one says he's either voting for Nader or writing in his
21 year old son.
the other says he's voting for Perot!!!

these guys both voted for * last time!!!!

[beyurslf]

14. Where do they keep getting this "4M evenagical" number?

I worked in an office with a bunch of crazy right wing holy rollers. They would vote from their death bed if it meant defeating a Dem or a moderate Repub. I think this is a Rove number to scare us into thinking they have an extra 4M votes that they didn't have last time.

[City Lights]

17. I found some info. on this at the Carpetbagger.

This quote is taken from a New Republic article by Marisa Katz, available by subscription. Links to the Carperbagger Report (scroll down to "Those 4 million missing evangelicals") and TNR article appear below it.

It's possible there are 4 million more evangelicals who might vote in this election, but even if they exist, they're unlikely to single-handedly save Bush. The National Survey of Religion and Politics at the University of Akron shows that the evangelicals who are most staunchly Republican -- that is, members of the religious right -- live disproportionately in the South. "Many states where evangelicals are common, like South Carolina and Texas, are not competitive ," Green said. "It won't matter." And the Christian conservatives who do live in more closely contested states had a high turnout in 2000. Rallying their vote could help Bush a bit. But there's not much room for improvement.

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/#002561
https://ssl.tnr.com/p/docsub.mhtml?i=express&s=katz091304

[A_Possum]

19. Good point

You can "improve" the fundie vote turnout all you want in places like Texas and Oklahoma, and it won't make any difference. And that's where it is.

Now, in a place like NC, it would matter. But NC will be icing.

[Czolgosz]

15. This is why we really need to work to improve our GOTV efforts.

We have a natural advantage over the Repellent Party in trying to boost our efforts at getting out the votes. The Repellents have traditionally been very good at GOTV but we have been only fair. If both sides are giving everything to GOTV efforts, the Repellents have only a little room to improve, but we have lots of room to improve. If will be easier for us to move from "fair" to "very good" than for the Repellents to move from "very good" to "perfect."

[AlCzervik]

18. Love this one...denial

Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway predicted independent voters would ultimately favor Bush, saying most opposed to the president had already thrown their support behind Kerry.

"For some reason, they were sitting on the fence," she said. "But that really has changed in the last few weeks. You find many of the new Bush voters actually supported him in 2000 and were not sold on John Kerry."

Sure Kelly, ya those independents are gonna break for Bush.....not.