"GOP Faces Multiple Hurdles as It Aims for a 1994 Replay"

[Clio the Leo]

GOP Faces Multiple Hurdles as It Aims for a 1994 Replay

By GERALD F. SEIB
A big question hangs over American politics: Could next year be 1994 all over again?

That was the year a bitter debate over health care led to a disastrous congressional election for Democrats, in which they lost 54 House and 10 Senate seats and ceded control of both chambers to the Republicans.

Things have started to look similar under Democratic President Barack Obama. His poll ratings slipped through the summer months, his party was damaged by a bruising health-care debate, and the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows the job-approval rating for the Democratic-controlled Congress has slumped to 22% -- almost precisely where it was at this time in the 1994 election cycle.

Combine that with the fact that a new president's party almost always loses seats in the first election after he takes office, and leaders of both parties now agree Democratic losses appear inevitable in the 2010 congressional election. Even some high-profile Democrats, such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, face tough fights.

The election is still a year away and pressing issues such as the health overhaul, the lagging economy and the future of the Afghan war could tip the balance. Yet, there are some little-understood forces that suggest a full repeat of 1994 is unlikely.

For the moment, all but nine House Democrats have said they are defending their seats, far more than in the 1994 cycle, when 29 incumbent House members in the party vacated their seats -- and Democrats lost 22 of those spots. Incumbents stand a far better chance of hanging on in a political storm than do newcomers. In addition, Mr. Obama, for all his recent troubles, hasn't slumped in popularity as far as President Bill Clinton did then, at least so far. And while Democrats' fund-raising lead has slipped in recent weeks, they have built up an advantage in campaign cash.

Perhaps as important, Democratic leaders have warned lawmakers earlier this time to start preparing for a tough fight; in 1994, by contrast, even some prominent Democrats didn't realize until late in the game that they were in trouble.

<snip>

Going into the 2010 cycle, Democrats' margins are still large enough that it will be a tall order for Republicans to win back control of either chamber. At the moment, Democrats own a 256-177 majority in the House, with two seats vacant. In the Senate, the Democratic edge is 58 to 40, with two independents who normally vote with Democrats.

That means Republicans would have to pick up 41 seats in the House to take over, and 11 in the Senate. Over the past century, the opposition party has picked up an average of 28 seats in the House and two or three in the Senate in the first mid-term election after the inauguration of a new president.

So it's a steep climb back to control of Congress for Republicans

<snip>

The single biggest bulwark Democrats have is the simple fact that, largely because congressional districts increasingly are drawn to be friendly to one party or the other, it remains extremely difficult to unseat incumbent members of Congress. In the past four election cycles, the re-election rate for incumbents of both parties in House races has been 94.3%, 94.1%, 97.8% and 96%. In Senate races, the rate has been 83.3%, 79.3%, 96.2% and 85.7%. While 34 Democratic incumbents lost in 1994, a mere 10 Democratic House incumbents were defeated in the dozen years from 1996 to 2008.

Which is why it's so important to Democrats that today, unlike in 1994, they aren't facing a rash of retirements that would open up seats to potential Republican takeovers.

Meanwhile, over in the Senate, it's the Republicans who face the retirement-induced crater. Seven incumbent Republican Senators are leaving their seats, meaning they won't be around to defend their seats, and five of those retirements come in states where it's Democrats who have a chance of picking up the seat.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125495123152271693.html

[Craftsman]

1. It's the economy stupid can cut both ways

If decent paying jobs are in the picture this time next year the dems will have a blood bath. People voted for change not unemployment and after 2 years the economy will belong to the dems in the minds of many Americans.

[SpiralHawk]

2. Major hurdle for the Republicons: their hurl-inducing FAIL freakishness

America is sick of the FAIL the Republicons dumped on the nation by tossing America's economy, environment, and honor in the crapper with 8 pathetic years of chickenhawk lie-based strategery & an unblemished record of corruption and incompetence.

Their Latter Day Pharisee Family Values are HURL-inducing, and no real American will ever forget. That's the Republicon hurdle.

[NewJeffCT]

3. It would be fantastic if we could pick up some seats in the Senate

then Lieberman loses much of his power his last 2 years in the Senate...