http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5681/kysen-tight-mRasmussen Reports (9/30, likely voters, no trend lines):
Undecided: 15
Jack Conway (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 40
Undecided: 17
Jack Conway (D): 42
Rand Paul (R): 38
Undecided: 15
Dan Mongiardo (D): 37
Trey Grayson (R): 44
Undecided: 14
Dan Mongiardo (D): 38
Rand Paul (R): 42
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.5%)
In the last two polls we've seen of this race (from R2K a month ago and SurveyUSA in August), Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo actually had a small electability edge over state AG Jack Conway. Not so in this poll, and maybe the leaked audiotape of Mongiardo's foul-mouthed kvetching against Gov. Steve Beshear has something to do with it. (In this same poll, Beshear's job approval is holding up pretty well -- a rarity for Governors these days, it seems -- at 59-41.)
Overall, these numbers aren't bad, especially considering that Rasmussen has tended to put out some of the most R-friendly polling results of the major public firms this cycle. I wouldn't mind seeing if Mongiardo's stock has dropped in the Democratic primary, though.