The Fix: The Most Important Number in Politics Today

[flpoljunkie]

The Most Important Number in Politics Today 49*

That's the number of House Democrats who sit in districts carried by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the 2008 election.

Those 49 members -- almost all of which are members of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition -- are at the center of the fight over health care reform in the final week before Congress breaks for August. (The full list is after the jump; a big thank you to Swing State Project for compiling the information.)

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) pledged on Sunday -- in an interview with CNN's John King -- that "when I take this bill to the floor, it will win", a stunning pronouncement given the widespread skepticism about the bill among the moderate and conservative members of the Democratic caucus.

If Pelosi wants to make good on her vow before Congress breaks at the end of the week, convincing a handful of the 49 Members who sit in McCain-won districts is absolutely essential to her cause.

more...

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/most-important-number/the-most-important-number-in-p-20.html?hpid=moreheadlines

*49 Democratic Members in McCain Districts (Obama percentage in parentheses)
Number of Blue Dogs 30 out of 49 http://www.house.gov/melancon/BlueDogs/Member%20Page.html

AL-02: Bobby Bright (36)
AL-05: Parker Griffith (38)
AR-02: Vic Snyder (44)
AR-04: Mike Ross (39)
AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (44)
AZ-05: Harry Mitchell (47)
AZ-08: Gabby Giffords (46)
CO-03: John Salazar (47)
CO-04: Betsy Markey (49)
FL-02: Allen Boyd (45)
FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas (49)
GA-08: Jim Marshall (43)
ID-01: Walt Minnick (36)
IN-08: Brad Ellsworth (47)
IN-09: Baron Hill (49)
KY-06: Ben Chandler (43)
LA-03: Charlie Melancon (37)
MD-01: Frank Kratovil (40)
MN-07: Collin Peterson (47)
MO-04: Ike Skelton (38)
MS-01: Travis Childers (38)
MS-04: Gene Taylor (32)
NC-07: Mike McIntyre (47)
NC-11: Heath Schuler (47)
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (45)
NM-02: Harry Teague (49)
NY-13: Mike McMahon (49)
NY-29: Eric Massa (48)
OH-06: Charlie Wilson (48)
OH-16: John Boccieri (48)
OH-18: Zack Space (45)
OK-02: Dan Boren (34)
PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (49)
PA-10: Chris Carney (45)
PA-12: John Murtha (49)
PA-17: Tim Holden (48)
SC-05: John Spratt (46)
SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (45)
TN-04: Lincoln Davis (34)
TN-06: Bart Gordon (37)
TN-08: John Tanner (43)
TX-17: Chet Edwards (32)
UT-02: Jim Matheson (39)
VA-05: Tom Perriello (48)
VA-09: Rick Boucher (40)
WV-01: Alan Mollohan (42)
WV-03: Nick Rahall (42)

[flpoljunkie]

1. More on the Blue Dogs and negotiations from CQ...

July 28, 2009 – 12:10 a.m.

Hedging on the House Health Care Vote
By Edward Epstein and Drew Armstrong, CQ Staff

The Energy and Commerce Committee tentatively plans to resume its markup of the legislation on Tuesday, although no time has been announced. Negotiations continue between Chairman Henry A. Waxman , D-Calif., and a group of moderate to conservative Democrats who have stalled the markup with an array of objections, mainly to the bill’s costs.

House Democrats assembled late Monday afternoon for a caucus at which staff for the three committees with jurisdiction over the massive bill planned to go over the bill section by section. A question-and-answer session was planned at the end.

Rep. Jane Harman , D-Calif., said that members at the walk-through asked many questions about the bill but did not criticize it. Rep. Sam Farr ., D-Calif., a Pelosi ally, said that he believed the Blue Dogs would be won over.

“The Blue Dogs are working on consolidating their positions to something that’s cost effective and rational,” he said.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003178322

[Autumn]

2. I have told Markey and Salazar that

they need to remember 1994, because if we don't get a strong public option , it's coming up again real soon.