How many people will sign up for the public option?

[ProSense]

Gov't plan can coexist with private insurance

More than 160 million workers and family members now get health insurance through an employer. A widely cited study by the Lewin Group, a private health research firm, estimated that more than 100 million people would sign up for the public plan proposed by House Democrats, making it the dominant insurer in the land.

But the budget office, in a letter Sunday to a senior Republican lawmaker, said its own estimate for the same legislation is "substantially smaller."

CBO estimates that only 11 million to 12 million people would sign up for the public plan — making it a much smaller player in the market. The government coverage would be available alongside private plans through a new kind of insurance purchasing pool called an exchange. CBO estimated about 6 million of those enrolled in the public plan would be workers and family members of employers that joined the exchange.

The reasons the estimates are so far apart have to do with different underlying assumptions.

The CBO estimated that the public plan would offer premiums about 10 percent lower than private plans; the Lewin analysis estimates the premiums would be at least 20 percent lower. The CBO estimates that only individuals and workers in companies with fewer than 50 employees would join the exchange, while Lewin estimated the exchange would eventually be open to all workers.

As if to underscore how such estimates can vary, the Urban Institute public policy center also ran calculations — and came up with different numbers. The Urban Institute estimated that about 47 million people would sign up for the public plan, if companies with fewer than 50 workers were allowed to join.

Answer: a lot. It's a choice, and while these organization can project costs, they can't read minds.

[DesertFlower]

1. exactly. they cannot read minds.

[LooseWilly]

2. It would be interesting to know the differences in the plans

... that correspond to the differing projections of enrollment. Are the projectionists really trying to say that the single biggest difference is whether or not employers with less than 50 employees will be allowed to join?

And why would the Democrats agree to a public option with such limitations? (Ok, that's mostly a rhetorical question... unless there's an answer besides HMO payola)

The urge to simplify the news is sometimes more confusing than reporting on details...

[DarthPortnoy]

3. Show of support

When this passes (and it will), we need to show out support of our President and move to the public plan. We need to bring back the grass roots efforts we used to get President Obama elected and start signing people up. This will be only way we can break the backs of these insurance angency predators.

[Merlot]

4. A friend of mine said they would sign up for public option on principle

No more making insurance executives rich.

[POAS]

5. Here is one sure signer upper!!

[tinrobot]

6. The less money I give insurance companies, the better.

Sign me up!

[rucky]

7. What public option?

:mad:

[bvar22]

8. The Lewin Group !!!....WTF????

the Lewin Group is wholly owned by UnitedHealth Group, one of the nation's largest insurers.

I KNOW you already KNOW this, and yet, here it is again...MORE Right Wing Propaganda that was produced to influence Congress to put even more restrictions and "firewalls" on the Public Option.

You might trust the Health Insurance to give you the facts, but I don't.
If you are going to peddle Health Insurance Industry Propaganda on DU, you should at least inform people about your source!

I trust the CBO.
It is one of the few places in Washing DC where you can get the facts.
The Bean Counters are usually very RIGHT.


"There are forces within the Democratic Party who want us to sound like kinder, gentler Republicans. I want us to compete for that great mass of voters that want a party that will stand up for working Americans, family farmers, and people who haven't felt the benefits of the economic upturn."---Paul Wellstone

[ProSense]

9. "I KNOW you already KNOW this" Then why are you yelling?

Anyone with any sense can see that estimate designed to show the public option will drive insurance companies out of business.

Come to think of it, I hope it is 100 million people.

[bvar22]

11. I am posting this for other people who might believe you are a credible resource.

I trust the Bean Counters...the "non-partisan" Congressional Budget Office.
They are seldom wrong.

Here is what the "non-partisan" Congressional Budget Office says about HR 3200.


*ONLY 10 Million Americans will be covered by the Public Plan by 2019.
Big Insurance should be very happy.
With the MANDATE and only 10 Million in the Public Plan after 10 years, they will be raking in the money.
Billions of it will be YOUR Tax Money buying Resorts and Yachts for the Big Insurance CEOs.

If the Public Plan only enrolls 3% of Americans, will they have any negotiating power to drive down Health Care Costs?

"Most importantly, the CBO coverage tables undermine the conservative claim that a public option would eliminate private insurance and erode employer-sponsored coverage. The House bill actually increases the number of people who receive coverage through their employer by 2 million (in 2019) and shifts most of the uninsured into private coverage. By 2019, 30 million individuals would also purchase coverage from the Exchange, but only 9-10 million Americans (or approximately 1/3) would enroll in the public option, the rest would enroll in private coverage."

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2009/07/14/house-bill-comes-in-at-1-trillion-undermines-gop-talking-points/

*Health Insurance will be mandated for all Americans, but Providers will be able to refuse Public Plan Participants.

Provider participation is voluntary – Medicare providers are presumed to be participating unless they opt out."

*The Public Option "should" be about 10% cheaper than Private Insurance.
I guess that is something, but a Publicly Owned Government Administered Plan that is open to ALL Americans could cut costs by at least 25%. (Difference between Medicare and Private Insurance administration).



*Many that are receiving Employer Based Insurance will be locked out of the "Exchange" and forced to keep their more expensive insurance.

"Under the main health bills being debated in Congress, many people with job-based insurance could find it difficult to impossible to switch to health plans on a new insurance exchange, even if the plans there were cheaper or offered better coverage. The restrictions extend to any government-run plan, which would be offered on the exchange.

<snip>

But critics argue that the rules run counter to suggestions from health care reform advocates that an overhaul could provide people with a broader choice of insurance options. The rules, they say, could be especially unfair to some lower-income workers who are enrolled in costly job-based insurance. Also, they argue, the restrictions would hurt the proposed public plan by limiting enrollment."

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/healthquest/for-many-workers-insurance-choices-may-be-limited-after-health-care-overhaul

There are many other details that need to be examined, but the one MOST glaring is the prediction that ONLY 10 Million will be enrolled in the Public Option by 2019. That is minuscule compared to what America is demanding.

Do you believe that the 72% of Americans who are calling for a "Public Option" will be satisfied with this?

[ProSense]

13. "who might believe you are a credible resource." What?

I'm the AP?

Dumb.

[bvar22]

14. You ARE the one posting Health Insurance Industry propaganda...

...without identifying the REAL source:

the Lewin Group is wholly owned by UnitedHealth Group, one of the nation's largest insurers.

I would have no problem if you had posted a disclaimer instead of trying to sneak this by less informed DUers as a credible source.

[ProSense]

16. Will you stop being silly?

Read the article again. It's about all the groups predicting who will choose the public option. Notice they mention the CBO. Wait, the article is about the CBO.

I would have no problem if you had posted a disclaimer instead of trying to sneak this by less informed DUers as a credible source.

Have you lost your mind?

[bvar22]

18. Nope.

I take Health Care for All Americans very seriously, too seriously to let outright bullshit like your OP slide.

According to HR 3200, very few Americans are going to have the "choice" to just go "sign up" for the Public Plan.

but you already know this.

[ProSense]

19. " too seriously to let outright bullshit like your OP slide." Are you on drugs?

PDF

What options employers would have under the proposal depends on whether the official overseeing the insurance exchanges would give larger firms access to the exchanges, and predicting what that official would do is difficult. On the one hand, workers at some firms would find that option attractive, particularly in areas where the public plan has relatively low premiums, and they might apply pressure to be admitted to the exchanges. On the other hand, providers of health care and private insurers might be opposed to expanding access to the public plan, and they might apply pressure to keep larger firms out of the exchanges. In addition, the official might be concerned about the potential for adverse selection into the exchanges, which could arise if employers choosing to take advantage of the option had older or less healthy workers.

If we assumed that workers at larger firms would be allowed to purchase coverage through the exchanges, our estimate of the number of enrollees involved would undoubtedly be greater than 6 million, but we have not estimated the magnitude. Analysts at the Lewin Group recently estimated that if all employers were given access to the insurance exchanges, more than 100 million people would end up enrolling in the public plan. For several reasons, we anticipate that our estimate of the number of enrollees in the public plan would be substantially smaller than the Lewin Group’s, even if we assumed that all employers would have that option.

One consideration that would affect our analysis is that large employers would generally have lower administrative costs for health insurance than would plans offered in the exchanges, because (under the proposal) those plans would need to sign up enrollees individually; as a result, employees of large firms would be less likely than those of small firms to find the option of purchasing coverage through the exchange attractive, holding other factors equal. Although we assumed that the public plan would have somewhat lower administrative cost per enrollee than would private plans in the exchanges, the public plan would probably have to incur much of the same cost in order to attract and retain members.

That's from the CBO today. Maybe you can scream at them and tell them to stop spreading RW BS because they included the Lewin Group estimate in their letter.

[bvar22]

20. The CBO supported my position in this letter.

Will you admit that the Congressional Budget Office is a credible source of information, and a "research" group founded and funded by one of the WORST offenders from the For Profit Health Insurance Industry is NOT a credible source of information about the current Health Insurance Reform Bill in Congress?


There is too much misinformation circulating at DU.
One of the more persistent untruths is that if Congress passes the current version of HC Reform
(HR 3200), then all Americans will be able to "choose" the Public Option if they wish.
This is UNTRUE.
Very few Americans will be "allowed" to "choose" the Public Option.
The majority of those (155 Million) who currently receive their Health Insurance from their employer will be locked out of the Public Plan, even if it is cheaper and provides better coverage.

Your OP was designed to perpetuate the untruth that Americans will be able to choose.

I'm not on drugs.
Are you employed by the For Profit Health Insurance Industry?

[bluethruandthru]

10. I'd be willing to bet that when all is said and done,

very few people will be allowed to sign up for the public option...and I'll bet doctors will be allowed to not accept public option patients. This is the compromise that will be reached and it will guarantee the failure of the public option. They will have all sorts of restrictions on who can and can't choose the public option...what size company you work for, do you have other plans available, etc., etc. I hope I'm wrong and the public option will be great coverage open to anyone...but I doubt it.

[bvar22]

15. According to the Congressional Budget Office,

...your fears are justified.

*ONLY 10 Million Americans will be covered by the Public Plan by 2019.
Big Insurance should be very happy.
With the MANDATE and only 10 Million in the Public Plan after 10 years, they will be raking in the money.
Billions of it will be YOUR Tax Money buying Resorts and Yachts for the Big Insurance CEOs.

If the Public Plan only enrolls 3% of Americans, will they have any negotiating power to drive down Health Care Costs?

"Most importantly, the CBO coverage tables undermine the conservative claim that a public option would eliminate private insurance and erode employer-sponsored coverage. The House bill actually increases the number of people who receive coverage through their employer by 2 million (in 2019) and shifts most of the uninsured into private coverage. By 2019, 30 million individuals would also purchase coverage from the Exchange, but only 9-10 million Americans (or approximately 1/3) would enroll in the public option, the rest would enroll in private coverage."

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2009/07/14/house-bill-comes-in-at-1-trillion-undermines-gop-talking-points/

*Health Insurance will be mandated for all Americans, but Providers will be able to refuse Public Plan Participants.

Provider participation is voluntary – Medicare providers are presumed to be participating unless they opt out."

*The Public Option "should" be about 10% cheaper than Private Insurance.
I guess that is something, but a Publicly Owned Government Administered Plan that is open to ALL Americans could cut costs by at least 25%. (Difference between Medicare and Private Insurance administration).



*Many that are receiving Employer Based Insurance will be locked out of the "Exchange" and forced to keep their more expensive insurance.

"Under the main health bills being debated in Congress, many people with job-based insurance could find it difficult to impossible to switch to health plans on a new insurance exchange, even if the plans there were cheaper or offered better coverage. The restrictions extend to any government-run plan, which would be offered on the exchange.

<snip>

But critics argue that the rules run counter to suggestions from health care reform advocates that an overhaul could provide people with a broader choice of insurance options. The rules, they say, could be especially unfair to some lower-income workers who are enrolled in costly job-based insurance. Also, they argue, the restrictions would hurt the proposed public plan by limiting enrollment."

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/healthquest/for-many-workers-insurance-choices-may-be-limited-after-health-care-overhaul

There are many other details that need to be examined, but the one MOST glaring is the prediction that ONLY 10 Million will be enrolled in the Public Option by 2019. That is minuscule compared to what America is demanding.

Do you believe that the 72% of Americans who are calling for a "Public Option" will be satisfied with this?

[backscatter712]

12. I will.

I'm not giving my money to private insurance cocksuckers - if there's an alternative, I'm taking it!

Besides, we've got to make sure the public option starts off with a bang, with as many people as possible, to increase their negotiating clout.

[Still Sensible]

17. If it is viable, why wouldn't a lot of businesses

insure their employees through the public plan? I get that many of the "powers that be" are trying very hard to avoid pissing off the insurance companies, but if that public option would save businesses 15-25%, they would be idiots to not change... of course, at that point the insurance companies would lower their prices to remain competitive. Oh yeah, that's kind of the point isn't it?