2012

[Robbins]

I thought some might like to see My posts on Obama,and 2012.This comes from a board which Is frequented by Republicans,and I act as
the Representative of those who voted for Obama.Some think He will be so easy to beat.And romney Is a great Candidate.

Obama Is in better shape than Clinton or Bush JR were.

In 1996 Clinton lost 2 States that Perot caused him to win Colorado and Montana.He also lost Georgia which he barely won In 1992.He won Florida which Perot cost him In 1992.He also won Arizona which he might have won In 1992 had Perot stayed out of the general
Election.

Bush In 2004 with a 50 percent approval ratings lost New Hampshire which would have gone to al Gore In 2000 If not for Ralph Nader and won Iowa and New Mexico which he lost In 2000 due to Increased support from Hispanic by fear tactics.

As I have said many times Obama will not win a landslide In 2012.Obama has a good shot at taking Missouri.His best approval from a Mccain state.Nader may have cost Obama Missouri In 2008.Nader got more votes here than Mccain beat Obama by.Beyond that Arizona without Mccain on the ticket could be In Play.Indiana and North Carolina are questions.My thinking Is If he loses one It will Indiana.NC Is more likely to stay Dem.

More and more If you looked at Clinton's approval ratings in June 1993,and his reelection,and Junior's approval ratings In June 2001
and his so called reelection(remember I will say to my deathbed Al Gore won the 2000 Election) show Obama In good shape.

Bill Clinton was at 35 percent In June 1993.However Republicans were In much better shape.

George w Bush was at 45 percent In June 2001.We all know what turned It around for him.

If we look back and analyze the 1996,and 2004 Campaigns than Obama could lose 1 or 2 states(most Likely Indiana or North Carolina)
but pick up a couple of states(Missouri and Arizona or Montana) against the Republican fall person Palin,Romney,or Gingrich.

Remember Bill Clinton pushed Don't Ask Don't Tell(although Conservative Democrats Like Sam Nunn deserve a lot of the blame) and
signed NAFTA and Welfare reform which many on the left didn't like.Of course even with Dole he faced a stronger Republican Party.

[Clio the Leo]

1. The ONLY thing that will prevent re-election....

.... is if the GOP can get the Ayatollahs to count the votes. ;-)

[Cleita]

2. Heyhey!

:rofl: Yep, we will have to turn out in numbers again to make the cheat machine fail again.

[Clio the Leo]

3. And thank the good Lord.....

.... that we can do so without getting shot up.

[Hippo_Tron]

5. I didn't know we were referring to the Supreme Court as "The Ayatollahs" now...

:evilgrin:

[Clio the Leo]

7. Ha! But they do refer to the main most Ayatollah as .....

.... the SUPREME leader!



baby love .... ma baby love......

[sarah553807]

4. obama will win no doubt

just not as much as some people here think

[Drunken Irishman]

6. It's going to take a lot for Pres. Obama to lose in 2012.

I understand some on DU believe it's possible, or even likely, but it's not.

Pres. Obama will be aided by his immense personal popularity. I'm not just talking about policy or approval, those are separate. As a person, most Americans like Pres. Obama.

If the president is a liked figure, you're going to have a hard time beating him in an election. It's what handed Reagan his landslide in 1984, even though just a year prior his approval was below 50%. Americans may not have agreed or liked his policies, but many liked him and felt comfortable with him as their leader.

This is why effective and likable leaders generally never lose, while cold, calculated and stubborn candidates who appear out of touch often do.

Look at Bush's father. The economy tanked, obviously, but his perceived weakness was that he could never connect with the American people. He appeared aloof and that hurt, especially when he ran against a charismatic candidate in Bill Clinton.

Had the Democrats nominated another wonky liberal from the NE, maybe they win, but they also might have neutralized Bush's weakness in that election and they could have lost, just like in 1988.

That's an important election to look back on, because prior to its start, most felt it was the Democrats to lose. Reagan fatigue was running strong and Americans were ready for a change. Add the fact Bush appeared weak and not at all likable and it should have been the Democrats year.

Dukakis, though, was equally perceived as weak and unlikable. This was bolstered by the ridiculous stunt where he rode around in a tank. So his 20-point lead in the summer of 1988 quickly evaporated and Bush not only won, but won big. In fact, no election has sniffed the 1988 results in both the popular vote or electoral college since.

So Pres. Obama already has an advantage the Republicans won't have in 2012. Most of America does not like Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. Many may agree with them politically, but they're turned off by their past actions and their current state.

These will be the undecideds. These will be the people who eventually went to Pres. Obama in 2008, even though they consider themselves a bit to the right of him politically.

Does anyone really believe he'll lose those voters to Palin or Pawlenty or Gingrich or Romney?

I don't.

So that puts him at 53% nationally.

Add the incumbency factor and it isn't hard to see him bumping that up to 56-57%.

If he does that, he'll carry the states he won in 2008 and probably flip Missouri, Montana, maybe Georgia and Arizona. Under the 2008 electoral count (which will change in 2010), he would win 403-135

Landslide.

[Robbins]

8. I pretty Much agree

President Obama won by the biggest margain by a democrat since the the 1960's.When Clinton beat Bush It was a rejection of How
Bush delt with economy.Not a rejection of Republicans.2006,and 2008 finally was rejection of Republicanism.

With the selfdestrcun of Ensign,and Sanford,and Jindal not willing to give up governor.Remember LA has crazy election year for governor.He can't run for both reelection In 2011 and president at the same time.Not counting fringe candi ates I think the Republicans running against Obama will be Palin,Romney,Gingrich,Huchabee,Palenty,and Barbour.They will all attack Obama as
Socialist,Tax raiser,promoting tax Cuts for the wealthy,and attack his foreign policy.

Obama will never win 40 states like Bush did In 88,or 49 like Reagan did In 84 but could win all his 2008 States.Apart from florida
and Ohio which will probably be battleground states again,please Republicans nominate Palin,Republicans will spend a lot of time
trying to take Indiana and NC.

I think you are exactly right on States that could flip.

Missouri Is the Mccain State Obama gets the Best approval from.And Mccain just barely won It.And nader got more votes here than
Mccain won by.Obama didn't really campaign In Montana and Georgia.And yet he got 47 Percent of the vote.The fact the DNC plans to
compete for the Governorship in 2010 In Georgia could be a sign they plan to compete there In 2012.With Arizona Mccain not being on the ticket will be helpful.Let's remember Obama didn't campaign In 2008 here yet got 45 percent of the vote.Very good In the home state of your opponent.If he can approach the 72 percent of the Hispanic Vote nationally that Clinton got In 1996 It could be
In play.Of course Republicans continue to alienate Hispanic voters.Just listen to Gingrich or Tancento on Ed on MSNBC to see this fact.

On another board Republicans keep mentioning after I do that Obama's approval Is better than Clinton or Bush JR that Carter's approval was In the 70's at this time In 1977.Obama Is not Carter,and those Republicans favorite guy Romney Is no Reagan.My feeling Is after the economic meltdown Romney Is weaker than he would have been In 2008.He used to boost the government should be run like a
Business.Let's see If he says that In the Republican primaries

[Hawkowl]

9. Jimmy Carter

Yeah. You heard the same stuff about Carter and that there was no way the rethuglicans could recover from Watergate and Vietnam. Carter, a brilliant man who came out of nowhere and ran a tenacious and brilliant campaign.

He first had to fight off the most contentious primary a sitting president had in over a hundred years from Ted Kennedy. Then he got his ass kicked by an idiot B movie actor.

At this point in time, I'd bet against Obama. Until he gets the troops out, gets real, public option health care passed AND unemployment down to around 6%---he doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell. If you think anything else, I would suggest a much more diligent study of history.

[RoadRage]

10. The only flaw in your argument...

is that right now the GOP doesn't have anyone that resembles a "B Rated Actor" in their lineup. They have a few guys who like to cheat on their wives, Jindal, The old Guard of Newt, Romney, etc... and then Palin. Palin is as close to Regan as far as love on the Right.. but it doesn't translate at all to the Independats - and that was where Regan cleaned up.

We're a bit safer now then we were in 1984.

[WI_DEM]

11. It's really too early to say about 2012 it depends on how the economy is doing.