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The polling story is complicated- some outfits (Gallup and some private ones working for e.g. Time, Newsweek) think that the turnout differential that Republicans are telling them will be generated (15-20% of the Republican base size) is actually going to happen. Others, like Zogby, are seeing far less Republican turnout uptick in their actual telephone pollings. The reason to weight Zogby's (lower) numbers more heavily is that Republicans (read: Ralph Reed) probably had to get their turnout increase defined in August, in time for their Convention, to 'close the deal' with these voters via Bush's Big Acceptance Speech.
Look at it this way: Joe Average voter was or wasn't convinced by Bush's Acceptance Speech on September 2. Anyone who wasn't simply isn't going to vote for Bush because (a) Bush has nothing else left to offer, and (b) there is no case for voting against Kerry. So Bush has maxed out.
Kerry's numbers aren't sinking, it's just that a lot of his voters went back to Undecided (yes, they'll be back) because Bush effectively changed expectations of Kerry with the swing voters. It's taken Team Kerry a while to figure out how to meet these expectations and hit back on Bush, who is unable to actually meet the same bar.
Bush's numbers are in fact sinking. He's not going to lose hardcore and softcore Republicans and Republican leaners, which combined make up 44-45% of the American electorate at normal turnout rates. He is bleeding the more conservative two thirds of the Nader vote. He is bleeding a few Independents back to Undecided. The real question is whether he's losing his Christian Right extra turnout- people who usually don't vote, mostly because they feel unqualified and unwilling to decide and unhappy with all the choices offered them.
So it's a pretty safe bet that Undecideds at the moment are to 90%+ Nader or Kerry voters, waiting for some Sign From Above to commit themselves to either one to pollsters.
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