HI-Gov/HI-Sen: Dems Look Good for Gov; Sen. Inouye Leads

[ccharles000]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gov primary (Dems):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 42
Mufi Hannemann (D): 22
Undecided: 36
(MoE: ±5%)

Gov general:

Neil Abercrombie (D): 45
James "Duke" Aiona (R): 36
Undecided: 19

Mufi Hannemann (D): 44
James "Duke" Aiona (R): 34
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)

For those of you not familiar with the players out here, Neil Abercrombie represents HI-01 in Congress, Mufi Hannemann is the Mayor of Honolulu, and Duke Aiona is the current Lt. Gov. Abercrombie has already pulled the trigger on a run; Hannemann has formed an exploratory committee. It's pretty interesting that Abercrombie has a material lead in the primary test, given that Hannemann has the better favorables (56-20 vs. 55-33).

I had thought that Hannemann wasn't too likely to run, but his recent activities indicate otherwise. He does have $660K left over from his mayoral campaign last year he can transfer over to a gov account. On the flipside, he's 16 years younger than the 70-year-old Abercrombie, and there's a decent chance Sen. Dan Akaka's seat will be open in 2012, if Hannemann's interested in that alternative.

One interesting side note: These two have faced off before, and are 1-and-1 in an unusual set of circumstances. Both men ran for HI-01 in 1986 when the incumbent, Cecil Heftel, ran for governor. Hannemann won the primary, but Abercrombie won the special election to fill the final two months of the term. Hannemann wound up losing to the Republican in the general election.

Speaking of Republicans, Duke Aiona has a decent 44-26 favorability rating, and has already raised $1.5 million. However, he's charging against the blue tide here - Hawaii's only ever had one Republican governor (the current incumbent, Linda Lingle), and gave the highest vote percentage to Obama of any state last year. SSP currently rates this race Lean Democrat.

And speaking of Linda Lingle, we also have some Senate numbers:

Dan Inouye (D-inc): 52
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)

I don't think anyone expects her to run, but she's almost certainly the only Republican on any of Hawaii's islands who could give Inouye a serious challenge. And even still, she trails by double digits with Inouye over 50. She sports better favorables than most governors, but at 51-43, they aren't great, and are considerably weaker than Senator Dan's 56-38 rating. SSP currently considers this a Race to Watch, but if Lingle doesn't bite, it will move to Safe D.


http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5147/higovhisen-dems-look-good-for-gov-sen-inouye-leads

[mahina]

1. Linda Lingle is going to be hated widely soon.

http://ilind.net/ ( scroll down to Friday)
"The more I hear and read Governor Lingle’s demand for state worker furloughs, and hear reports by those who have been dealing (or trying to deal) with her on the budget issue, the more I have come to believe that she is no longer simply seeking a budgetary solution but instead has decided to hijack the budget process for her own increasingly conservative political goals.

Perhaps those months touring with the McCain campaign has “Palin-ized” the governor. Perhaps she’s trying to boost herself within the GOP’s conservative ranks while looking ahead to a role in the 2012 presidential race at a national level. In any case, I believe the union leaders who say she has not negotiated, will not compromise, and is unwilling to look at any evidence regarding the impact of her hastily concocted furlough plan."

Mufi is already widely distrusted. He always pulls nasty personal last minute sh**, see your notes on our recently deceased Duke Bainum.

[mahina]

2. Our state Senate: 25 seats, 2 Mepublicans.

6 of 51 House members.

Oh yeah, those two senate seats? One of them is Fred Hemmings, whose wife was recently indicted for stealing from her charity employer. Nice! This state "leans" democratic like Alabama 'leans' mepublican.

[ellisonz]

3. Mufi so should not run.

He needs to bide his time and run for senator for life in a few years. I'm under the impression that the mayors office isn't term limited.

Gary Hooser is going to make a great Lt. Gov.