Iran's growing societal chasm (The Beginning of the End for Iran's Theocracy)

[SuperTrouper]

Excerpts:
In recent years,... the position of Iran's leader has been eroded. Indeed, the current street battles are symptomatic of that erosion. Tears in the country's religious establishment have become ever more visible in Iran's recent past, the gap between the country's rich and poor has widened, and the chasm between the Western-oriented youth and the religious fanatics has deepened. Indeed, the current crisis could very well spell the beginning of the end for the Khamenei system.

The demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere are not just in protest against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was declared the official winner of Friday presidential elections despite opposition charges that the election was fixed. Rather, the protest is also against Khamenei himself, a leader who has lost all connection to large swaths of younger Iranians. He seems not to have noticed the yearning for more openness, more freedom -- and for jobs with a future.

The unrest is even more ominous for Khamenei and the Iranian theocracy because it clearly demonstrates how split the regime's elite really are. On one side are the deeply religious and the fanatic pro-revolutionaries. On the other stand the reformers, the most popular of whom has been the former president of Iran Mohammad Khatami.

But Khamenei himself is one of the main reasons the strategy failed. He committed the decisive error in the run up to elections four years ago. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani had been hoping to stage a comeback as the embodiment of the Chinese model. Prior to Khatami, he had governed Iran for eight years -- and he wanted another term.

Khamenei wanted to prevent Rafsanjani from attaining the highest political office at all costs. If he were elected again as president it would have posed a threat to his own influence. Even without the presidency, Rafsanjani was regarded as the second most powerful man in Iran.

Iran's consensus politics of the past created the illusory hope there might be some kind of political compromise after the election. But the anticipation that built up was too great -- and the stakes were large for both parties. The fighting on the streets isn't just between supporters of the reforms and hardliners. Behind the scenes, the different wings of the government are fighting over the best path forward to ensure theocratic Iran's survival.

If its leader, Khamenei, wants to save his system, he is going to have to mend the deep rift that has opened up. To do so, he will need to get Mousavi and his mentors Rafsanjani and Khatami back on his side. Either that or he will have to clear them out of his way. But even for a man described by the Iranian constitution as "God's representative on earth," that would be a suicide mission. And Khamenei, who just gave his blessing to Ahmadinejad's re-election, isn't likely to do anything that would directly harm the president.

Currently, Khamenei is showing loyalty to his protégé and appears to have decided in favor of confrontation rather than compromise. But even if Khamenei manages to find a compromise in the end, it will likely be only an illusory one. That it can hold for an additional four years with Ahmadinejad in office seems wishful thinking


http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2009/06/15/iran_chasm/index.html

[BoneDaddy]

1. When the youth of their nation see what exists outside

of their own area, how could they not desire it? Thanks to the internet and, god forbid, television, they have seen a world that is not "evil" and offers them the vision of freedom from theocracy. This is the beginning of the end, hopefully.

[PVnRT]

2. Such is the danger of information

Which is precisely why countries like North Korea are very careful to control what their citizens know about the rest of the world.

[BoneDaddy]

3. Yep, except the genie is out of the bottle

I think and it will be hard for people to NOT eventually get a differing opinion.