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I strongly believe there was some, even substantial levels of, election fraud. But a two to one victory seems unbelievably lopsided for a total fraud from as modern and diverse a country as Iran. But what I know about Iran from the news and from my friends from there isn't really representative of all of Iran. Like in many developing countries, Iran's population is sharply divided between the sophisticated, modern, educated city population and the conservative majorities in the villages.
In many ways, this election reminds me of what this country was going through in 1972--with Mousavi playing the George McGovern role. Mousavi got the young hip radical vote and the active elements of society behind him--the people who make the news and set the trends are with him. But it could well be that the silent majority came out en mass for the reactionary, if clownish, status quo. There may have been cheating on the part of the paranoid establishment figures, but in the long run they probably didn't need to in order to win. Hopefully, like with Nixon, the establishment is sewing the seeds of its own undoing.
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