SSP Gubernatorial Rating Changes, 6/10/09

[ccharles000]

The Swing State Project is changing ratings on five different gubernatorial races, three of which favor Dems and two of which favor the GOP. We're also republishing our full race rating chart. As always, you can find our perma-post here.


Georgia (Open): Likely R to Lean R
With former Gov. Roy Barnes' entrance into the race, this contest just became very interesting. Two different surveys (Insider Advantage and Research 2000) have shown Barnes in a good position against a range of possible Republican candidates. Barnes first has to navigate the Dem primary (where Attorney General Thurbert Baker & House Minority Leader DuBose Porter present formidable obstacles), though the only primary poll to date shows him with a big lead, and he may yet clear the field. This race is likely to become more competitive rather than less so as time progresses.


Iowa (Culver): Safe D to RTW
While we haven't seen any head-to-head polling in Iowa yet this year, Gov. Chet Culver's approvals have started to head southward, according to both SurveyUSA and the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile, the GOP appears to have netted a relatively non-crazy candidate, former state House Speaker Chris Rants. Are we really worried about Culver's prospects? No - or at least, not yet. But with so many incumbent governors taking scorching heat for the brutal economy, this race bears watching.


Massachusetts (Patrick): RTW to Likely D
Most other folks with poll numbers as lousy as Deval Patrick's would be in a lot more trouble than this. Luckily, he's running for re-election in Massachusetts. Still, Kwik-E-Mart magnate Christy Mihos, who garnered 7% of the vote as an independent in 2006, is seeking a rematch, and he got more money than Picasso got paint. It's enough to give Patrick serious headaches.


Minnesota (Open): Lean R to Tossup
Even if Tim Pawlenty had decided to seek re-election, this race likely would have reached Tossup status at some point. But with T-Paw busy checking out the color of his parachute, the timetable's accelerated. The field is very much in flux on both sides, but if anything, Dems will have a slight edge just given the blue background hue of this state.


Vermont (Douglas): Safe R to RTW
We aren't getting excited about the possibility of chucking out Republican Jim Douglas just yet. But the Dems have a better slate of potential candidates (including Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz) than they have in the past, and Douglas is facing his first election in hard times. He's started to get dinged on some local issues, and of course had a high-profile defeat on gay marriage. And a January R2K poll showed him with a not-so-hot 52-41 approval rating. The key here will be Vermont's left-wing Progressive Party; if they hold their fire, then a Democrat could do some real damage.


http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5061/ssp-gubernatorial-rating-changes-61009

[DU9598]

1. Iowa

Culver should be fine if the Republicans nominate any of their current field - VanderPlatts or Rants or Sen. Behn. However, if a moderate is nominated this could be a closer race. Rants is not considered a mainstream candidate outside of western Iowa. Republicans need to find a moderate from eastern or central Iowa, if they have a chance to win. The saving grace for Culver is the primary electorate of the RPI is so socially conservative they will not nominate a moderate.

Most people in Iowa consider the former speaker's name to be a complete sentence: Chris Rants. Always cynical, never a solution.