VA-Gov: Deeds Surges in New PPP Poll

[ccharles000]

Public Policy Polling (5/28-31, likely voters, 5/19-21 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 27 (20)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 24 (29)
Brian Moran (D): 22 (20)
Undecided: 26 (31)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Tom Jensen breaks down the factors that are currently benefiting Deeds:


Two developments in the race appear to have fueled the movement over the last week and a half:
-Deeds' endorsement by the Washington Post has resulted in a significant increase in support in northern Virginia. He was polling at 11% there two weeks ago and that has more than doubled in the wake of the endorsement to 23%. With that region casting about 30% of the primary vote, more than half of his progress since the last poll has come there alone.

-McAuliffe has seen a decline in support in the Hampton Roads and greater Richmond areas since Brian Moran went on the airwaves with ads attacking him. He's dropped from 34 to 23% in Richmond and from 33 to 25% in Hampton Roads.

Even still, PPP cautions that the race is anyone's game: that block of undecideds is still pretty huge (26%), and even among voters who do have a preference, a large number of them (44%) say that they could still change their mind. McAuliffe's favorables are by far the weakest in the Dem field (39-35, comapared to 48-13 for Deeds and 44-18 for Moran), but he's currently launching a costly moneynuke in the vote-rich DC media market -- something that the cash-strapped Moran and Deeds can't compete with.

And speaking of Northern VA, SUSA has a NoVA-only poll showing Moran leading McAuliffe by 43-27, with Deeds checking in at 20%. That's not far off from the Moran 36/McAuliffe 27/Deeds 23 split from PPP's innards.

PPP will be releasing one final poll of this race on Sunday night (or Monday morning), so we'll have one final chance to see if McAuliffe's big-spending ways are having an impact.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5040/vagov-deeds-surges-in-new-ppp-poll

[FSogol]

1. I also feel that Terry McAuliffe & Brian Moran hurt themselves by going negative

They turned many of us off with all there mudslinging.

[rvablue]

5. Can't say I've seen one attack ad by McCauliffe. I see several a day by Moran, though. n/t

[chimpymustgo]

2. I've seen very few McCauliffe ads in the DC (NoVA) area. Scads of ads for and against Rethug

Bob McDonnell.

[FSogol]

3. I'm getting 4-6 pieces of mail from the 3 candidates daily in my mailbox. n/t

[rvablue]

6. Interesting. Here in central VA there are ads non-stop during the evening newscast hour. n/t

[kegler14]

4. Go Deeds!!!!

[LostinVA]

7. A bit of a tool, but Couric was his mentor, so GO DEEDS!!!

[onenote]

8. I'm one of those Northern Virginia voters now leaning towards Deeds

NOt because of the WaPost editorial, but because I think Deeds is the only one of the three with a shot at winning the race. Deeds came within 330 votes of winning a statewide challenge to McDonnell (the repub candidate) a few years ago. Its easy for us in NoVA to forget that and forget that Deeds is well known statewide. McAuliffe is simply not a good candidate for Virginia--he's associated closely with the CLintons and Hillary took a beating here in the primary -- some attribute that to the Clinton name, others attribute it to the campaign she waged. EIther way, its not a plus in McAuliffe's column. Brian Moran is a good guy, but he's saddled a bit with his brother's declining reputation.

So, even though he's the least progressive candidate of the three Democrats, I'm leaning in Deeds direction, but haven't definitively made up my mind yet.

[ShortnFiery]

11. Editorials in the Whoreshineton post have been suspect since the lead up to the Iraqi invasion.

But I don't have anything against Deeds. I would take almost ANY democrat other than Terry McCullif.

[Arkana]

9. Excellent! As long as it's not McAuliffe, I think you VA folks might hold onto the Governorship.

[ShortnFiery]

10. It's still close. I'm for Brian Moran and getting about a half dozen buddies to the polls ...

and my husband to vote for him on June 9th.

Go Brian Moran! :-)

http://organize.brianmoran.com/?_kk=brian%20moran&_kt=7b22bd3a-8110-4895-96ad-476b90b1ca60&gclid=CJbem_fC7JoCFRYpFQodl3OdBQ

[mgcgulfcoast]

12. great news

mcauliffe is a political insider who is in it for himself.

[AtomicKitten]

13. Too bad the not-McAuliffe vote is being split by Moran and Deeds.

Either would be preferable to that snake oil salesman.