Poll: Sen. Specter Would Crush Rep. Joe Sestak in a PA Democratic Senate Primary

[ClarkUSA]

In a poll commissioned by the DSCC, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group poll found Sen. Arlen Specter way ahead of Rep. Joe Sestak in a possible Democratic primary match up, 56% to 16% with 16% undecided. No surprise there.

Meanwhile, the Allentown Morning Call notes that with the exception of his first two Senate votes after switching parties, Specter has "been about as automatic" a 60th vote as they come, "holding the party line on every measure but one that's come before the chamber. The sudden streak of loyalty comes after some Democrats balked at Specter's initial insistence on touting his maverick style and as a potential deep-pocketed challenger waits in the wings."

I predicted Specter would do this. Now I predict that there will be no Sestak candidacy. Not with these poll numbers.

Hat Tip: Political Wire

[ShadowLiberal]

1. Thoughts of a PAer on those numbers

Honestly I'm not surprised by those numbers, for several reasons.

1) Sestak isn't very well known in most of the state, and didn't exactly spend much on TV ads in 2008.

2) Specter had a higher approval rating among democrats before switching, Specter also has a history of getting democrats in the Philadelphia area (where he's from) to cast their vote for him regularly, had any other republican been running then most of those democrats would probably have voted the other way.

3) All the democrats who could actually be a threat to Specter if they ran (like Ed Rendell) aren't going to run, they wouldn't have run even if he stayed a republican.

I've always thought Sestak was just bluffing to move Specter farther to the left, I personally don't think he'd be too good of a senator based on all of his TV interviews on the PA media I've seen (and I've seen like 10 of them).

[Jim Sagle]

2. So you prefer fake Dems like Spectre to real Dems like Sestak. Got it.

[AllentownJake]

4. PA is an odd state

I don't think its a matter of PA DUers preferring Specter. If any of us have worked on any political campaign in this state we understand the realities.

The reality is that Specter is popular in the vote rich Philadelphia area the same area that Sestak is from. The reality is that the Vice President sent me an email telling me how much he loves Arlen today, the Vice President is a very popular figure in the state and the email was from Barack Obama's website. The reality is that the current Governor who rules the party with an iron fist (ask Hillary how helpful he is) goes to the same synagogue as Arlen and has been begging him to switch.

In short the only candidate willing to take on Arlen comes from the same region and the entire PA democratic establishment will work for Specter out of fear of Ed, Biden, and Barack.

[Teaser]

7. Please don't smoke....

[Jim Sagle]

14. If you're implying that I'm entranced by Obama, search my posts for enlightenment.

[Teaser]

16. here's a hint

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

[Jim Sagle]

17. The only straw man here is Single Bullet Spectre.

[ClarkUSA]

3. Also, hundreds of thousands of longtime Specter-voting moderate Republicans are now Democrats.

There's little doubt they will stay Specter voters as he followed their party switch with one of his own. BTW, I lived and worked in PA during the campaign year and I agree with you on all of your salient points.

[AlinPA]

5. Terrible news. Right now, I question the poll. Specter is a republican and it

is hard to believe that a Democrat would be that far back in any poll.

[WeDidIt]

6. I'm feeling better about Specter these days

Even I was giving Pelosi shit over her latest flap and Specter came out in defense of her.

That impressed me.

[Zavulon]

8. I'd bet that was just for show.

Specter is a political whore. Pretty much every Republican hates him now, so he has to kiss the asses on our side. If he thought giving Pelosi shit would have helped him in any way, he would have done it.

I NEVER feel good about that asshole until I see his vote on whatever bill is on the table. NEVER.

[w4rma]

9. Enough to vote for Specter over Sestak? (nt)

[quiller4]

10. Given the choice--yes. n/t

[w4rma]

13. Enough to vote against the highest-ranking former military officer to serve in Congress? (nt)

[yourguide]

11. Interesting...

so Specter has voted against the dems twice while Gillibrand has voted against the party 4 times but the dems are threatening to withhold money from Specter's campaign.

[ClarkUSA]

15. Good point. Obviously, Republican activists don't hold a monopoly on hypocrisy.

[bcoylepa]

12. what about his health???

tell me - what is the procedure to replace Specter if his health issues make him unable to serve his term -

if something happened to Rendell right now - we would end up with a Rep Gov because no one was willing to confront Catherine Baker Knoll on this issue

we might end up with a Republican Governor next year