Congressman Sestak is not a good Primary Opponent for Specter

[AllentownJake]

I'm going to try to write this as an unbiased as possible with simply facts. I really don't have a horse in this game and as a democrat ideologically I probably side more with Sestak. This is politics though and we all know the candidate we side with ideologically doesn't always win. I believe if there is going to be a viable primary opponent against Arlen Specter, Joe Sestak is a poor choice.

These are the things Joe Sestak would have to overcome if he were to run a successful campaign against Arlen

1) Geographic location - Joe Sestak's district is in the Philadelphia burbs. Arlen's largest base is in the Philadelphia burbs. Joe walks into this race with no loyal geographic base of which to rely on.

2) Joe Sestak's reputation - Joe is a great congressman, he also is a notoriously hard man to work for. In 2010 there is going to be a great deal of competition for democratic brains to run campaigns with 36 Govenor's races, the possible Democratic Senate pick-ups with weak or retiring GOP senators, and competitive House races. Essentially the best minds are going to have their choice of jobs. Joe's reputation is going to scare the brightest away even if they are extremely sympathetic to his cause. A badly run campaign can sink any candidate.

3) Name recognition - Joe has only been a congressman for 4 years. His exposure in the state of PA has mostly been limited to the area surrounding Philadelphia.

4) Money - Joe is a great fundraiser, however, he's going to have to compete as of this moment (things can always change) with the White House, Ed Rendell, and the DSCC in raising funds for this race. Going to be a big uphill battle.

5) Limited standing in the party - If Joe runs, he won't be running for congress at the same time. He has only been a congressman for 2 terms. The people that decide to support Joe will have limited cover if Joe doesn't win. This is politics and while you maybe very pro someone's cause sticking your neck out there when you have little to gain and everything to lose is a hard thing to do it. Most people don't. The appreciation of a former congressman is not the type of consolation prize people strive for their support or loyalty.

Can Sestak overcome these handicaps, nothing is impossible. However, before people start going nuts and trying to encourage Sestak to run because he is not Arlen, you need to consider if your goal is to un-seat Specter are you encouraging the right guy. You also should realize that you are encouraging a Democratic House member who has won 2 elections in a traditionally GOP house seat to give it up and most likely the GOP picking up that seat. What you will probably get is Arlen in the end and a loss of that seat to the GOP.

I personally believe in order to unseat Specter in a democratic primary you'd need the following

1) A candidate from Pittsburgh or Western PA

2) A candidate who has a good reputation as someone to work for to attract top brains.

3) Name recognition outside the Philadelphia media market.

4) An office that is not up for re-election in 2010 so the candidate has something to fall back into if he loses.

Flame away.

[MrSlayer]

1. Add inexplicable but universal Union support in Philadelphia for Specter to the mix.

Despite his ludicrous stance on EPCA and other labor related issues he will get full Union support.

[AllentownJake]

2. That is a wild card

The union leaders are pretty pissed about the EFCA vote or the more accurate statement would be lack of a vote being held. Whether the Union members follow their leaders is an outstanding question.

[MrSlayer]

3. Actually, it's the other way around.

The members are pissed about Specter, the leaders are the ones telling us to back the motherfucker. There was a lot of talk in the trades of switching to Republican for the primary to help Specter. I'm not getting it but that's what it is.

[Laelth]

10. Interesting. Makes sense that membership is upset, as they should be.

I suppose the Union leaders were advised/consulted by Rendell or Biden.

:dem:

-Laelth

[quiller4]

12. Actually the leaders know Spector is a factor in preparing

an amended EFCA likely to pass before 2010--I'm hearing late 2009 and that info comes from 2 union lobbyists.

[rvablue]

4. Can't see why anyone would flame you for this. It was very well thought

out and I'm glad you posted it.

Food for thought....

[Thrill]

5. Great Post. But I think its still too early to judge what Unions, Obama, and the Democratic Base

is going to in regards to Specter. I think he's going to be carefully watched over these next few months. And if he objects and votes against the Supreme Court Nominee, Healthcare, Energy Plan, and the Student Loan reform. I find it hard to believe he will get the strong support in the Primary from Obama, Unions, and the base.

I think they'll all support him if he wins the primary. But lets see if he gets that far

[WeDidIt]

6. Beggars can't be choosers

Basically, the real Democrats will ahve to support whichever Democrat has the best chance of defeating Specter.

If Sestak is the only Democrat to throw his hat into the ring, so be it.

[freddie mertz]

7. No flame here...

The one thing I will say in Joe's favor is that he has not been afraid to speak about the sleazyness of the Specter deal.

That takes courage in the face of the Rendell-Biden-Obama juggernaut.

[Jakes Progress]

8. It wouldn't matter.

The nom is Specter's. Done deal.

[Laelth]

9. Useful, intelligent analysis. Thanks. n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[Bluenorthwest]

11. I don't understand PA at all

I just don't. If this were going on in my State, he'd not have a chance by merely changing hats. He'd have to change the way he votes, and speaks, he'd have to BE a Democrat, and a strong one, or we'd laugh him off the stage as the Republican he is. PA, I just don't get PA at all. Pretty state. Always treated me well. But politically I am at a loss with PA. So I just hope you can find a good Primary candidate, Primaries are important and should not be dealt away ever.

[quiller4]

13. Although the Democratic Party has increased registration in

PA many of the newly registered are former Republicans who tend to be more conservative. Spectors views and voting record suit them which is why he polls so highly.

[AllentownJake]

14. Machine Politics is all you need to understand

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_Machine

[freddie mertz]

16. PA politics is machine-driven and anti-democratic...

Bob Casey was picked by the machine to run against Sanctorum, and the more prominent potential primary opponents were strong-armed to stand down.

Rendell supported Clinton, and Casey supported Obama, and both of them campaigned in the primary here.

But neither of them did so out of principle: Rendell is an old clinton operative; and Casey hates Clinton because of his dad.

[JDPriestly]

15. Specter is the past. His record is abominable.

Joe Sestak is young, exudes strength and balance and is a far more attractive candidate on the human level. Specter gets confused when he speaks. Sestak is clear and energetic. I doubt that Specter can hold up very long under the pressure of campaigning. Sestak is going to look really strong and vibrant compared to these old, boring pols. Don't underestimate Joe Sestak. He's sharp.

[AllentownJake]

17. You don't understand the state of PA

This race isn't the Presidential, its going to get about 1 minute of nightly news coverage on the local news and than the rest of the race will be decided by advertising and appearences.

Yes Sestak might look better on the stump but at the Specter show the opening acts will pack the people in.

[LynneSin]

18. I think there is more to Sestak's consideration that meets the eye....

Sestak is a viable statewide candidate for Pennsylvania but it would be a big setback to his career to run against Specter and lose. But Democrats who engineered this move by Specter want to keep him honest and I think Sestak is that subtle threat that say to Arlen - "If you screw us over we'll run an opponent against you"