PROOF OF COLLUSION: TRUST THE INDY POLLSTERS, TOSS THE WHORES!

[TruthIsAll]

Trust the indies, toss the whores.

KMA is Kerry's moving average in the last 3 polls.
	
Corporate pollsters: 
Bush: 49.33, Kerry 44.89
Kerry trend is down 

Independent pollsters:
Kerry:46.33, Bush 46.44
Kerry trend is up 
				
					
Date	Poll	Kerry	Bush	Diff	KMA	BMA
						
Corporate						
824	LAT	46	49	-3	46.00	49.00
825	NBC	45	47	-2	45.50	48.00
829	ABC	49	48	1	46.67	48.00
902	TIME	42	50	-8	45.33	48.33
908	FOX	45	47	-2	43.67	49.67
910	NWK	45	50	-5	44.67	49.67
910	AP	46	51	-5	45.33	49.33
916	CBS	42	50	-8	44.33	50.33
916	CNN	44	52	-8	45.00	50.00

AVG		44.89	49.33	-4.44	45.17	49.15
						
Independent						
722	QPAC	46	43	3	45.44	46.17
901	ARG	48	46	2	47.00	44.50
906	ECON	45	46	-1	46.33	45.00
909	ZOGBY	45	47	-2	46.00	46.33
912	ICR	45	49	-4	45.00	47.33
913	IBD	46	44	2	45.33	46.67
913	HARR	48	47	1	46.33	46.67
914	DEMC	48	49	-1	47.33	46.67
914	PEW	46	47	-1	47.33	47.67
						
AVG		46.33	46.44	-0.11	46.23	46.33

[rockymountaindem]

1. Glad to have you around.

I hadn't noticed this difference. Thanks a lot for pointing it out!

[cthrumatrix]

2. thnks...it still comes down to computer voting

[TruthIsAll]

3. Want more of this?

Watch as the mediawhores are consumed in their own lies as Kerry builds toward a landslide.

I truly believe it will happen.

[Zynx]

4. Media polls are worthless.

[DemBones DemBones]

5. Corporate pollsters aren't interested in

measuring public opinion but in driving public opinion. They're working to get votes for Bush*.

[maryallen]

6. Always enjoy reading your work ...

Interesting. Thanks.

[TruthIsAll]

7. So lets say its 46-46. That leaves 8%. Kerry gets 2/3 (67%)

of the undecided/others.

Now 2/3 of 8% = 5.33%

so

Kerry Final% = Current% + undecided allocation%

Kerry Final% = 51.33% = 46% + 5.33%

Kerry wins. Even assuming he makes no further gains on Bush.

[quaoar]

20. You don't include Rasmussen in there

As far as I can tell. Where would he fall?

Also, what do you think is the reason for the sudden huge leads that Bush is being given in state polls? I find it incredible that anyone in his right mind would put out a poll saying that NJ prefers Bush, yet there it is. Other state polls show Bush with 10-12 point leads just a week or two after Kerry was leading.

[TruthIsAll]

23. I don't include Rasmussen because it's a daily tracking poll...

And he's a Repub pollster. We have enough of those.

I agree with you re NJ. There is NO WAY Kerry is behind. If he is, we might as well quit right now. The poll is from Survey USA. I believe they are Repubs.

When electoral-vote.com updates NJ, it will be reflected in my model.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

Kerry's probs and EV's will jump up as a result.

[quaoar]

25. Doesn't Rasmussen also do standard three-day polls?

Or has he switched to just tracking polls?

And if you exclude Rasmussen, you should probably exclude Democracy Corps, which is Democratic (Carville and Begala, I think).

Might also be interesting to note how close all those pollsters were on the 2000 election. I believe Harris was closest to predicting the final vote.

[TruthIsAll]

26. Rasmussen does a tracking poll. I prefer not to include it

for that reason. I average 18 national polls, so leaving him out won't make a dimes worth of difference.

[Andromeda]

8. I'll say it again -- thanks TIA...

This sure shows things in a clear light. The whores are leading us down the garden path.

[Pirate Smile]

9. Nominated for home page. I think this is a good comparison

for people to see.

What are the dates on the polls? Can you just do the polls (or did your) since the RNC is over?

[TruthIsAll]

17. The dates are listed on the left (Sept 7 noted as 907).

tia

[DeepModem Mom]

10. kick

[tritsofme]

11. Isn't Dem Corps a partisian outfit? nt

[TexasSissy]

16. Yes, I think so.

[moondust]

12. Good.

Great job of nailing this scam, TIA!

[yowzayowzayowza]

13. Thx TIA...

yer vigilance is appreciated.
:kick:

[JPJones]

14. p-value = 0.00496, the difference is statistically significant

However, you haven't defined what make a polling company 'corporate' versus 'independent'. Each of the 'corporate' polls is performed by an 'independent' polling.

However, the probability that there is no difference here (i.e. that it is by chance) is only 0.5%. That is a difference that would be acceptable for publication in any scientific journal.

I used a two-tailed t-test in Excel and assumed unequal variances.

[TruthIsAll]

18. Gallup works for CNN/USA Today. FOX is Murdoch, NBC is GE.

ABC - Disney
Time - AOL/Time Warner
Newsweek- Washington Post
ABC - Washington Post

Oh, yes CBS is owned by Viacom (they are good whores)

[JPJones]

19. Cause if you have iron-clad categories

Convincing reasons why each firm goes into each category, the fact that their is statistically significant difference is huge - press release worthy.

Perhaps the DU research hounds should be released to find out all we can about these pollsters.

[JPJones]

15. Kick n/t

[autorank]

21. As always, VERY USEFUL. A couple questions, if you have time.

(1) How many polls call people with cell phones and what percentage of calls are made to this group? There are huge chunks of the <30 vote that live 'off the grid.' If they're not tapped because cells are not routinely and robustly used, how do we know how they're voting?
(2) What about the 'over worked' -- people who work two or more jobs or who work swing shifts? Don't know what % of the population this is but are they tapped or weighted to be included?

Thanks

[TruthIsAll]

22. Sorry, I can't help you there. I only use the basic published info.

Good points, though. I'm sure Kerry is doing a lot better than anyone realizes.

[quaoar]

24. Cell phone users don't get called

For a variety of reasons:
1. They might be on the road or at a restaurant and will not devote enough time to finish the survey (they do take a good bit of time).
2. The person being interviewed might have an Atlanta area code but actually be in college in Florida or doing an internship in Maryland or whatever.
3. Many cell-phone users have to pay for incoming calls and are thus prone to cut off a pollster's call.
4. Because of FCC restrictions on calling cell-phone users, pollsters avoid them to avoid potential lawsuits.

http://www.detnews.com/2004/technology/0401/04/a07-25519.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2003-12-31-polls_x.htm

http://blogcritics.org/archives/2004/09/09/111614.php

[autorank]

27. Thanks. That's great information. Now, if we just knew...

how many of the cell folks are totally off the grid. I'll ask around in my little tech-world community or if anyone has an answer, let me know.

[Skinner]

28. Very intresting.

Thanks for posting this.

[Wind Dancer]

29. Thanks for posting!

I don't believe anything that comes from mainstream media, including polls.

[BamaLefty]

30. Amen To That!

*

[TruthIsAll]

31. want more of this?

tia

[missouri dem]

32. kick

And thanks for posting.

[TruthIsAll]

33. You're welcome, MO. Now, show me your state will go for Kerry.

We need another give 'em hell Harry.