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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:03 PM
Original message
William Black vs. Simon Johnson on the IMF
William K. Black: They used the IMF type policies that make things worse and then he (Geithner) went to IMF and made things worse. The guy has a track record of failure everywhere he's gone.

link


The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.

by Simon Johnson

The Quiet Coup

One thing you learn rather quickly when working at the International Monetary Fund is that no one is ever very happy to see you. Typically, your “clients” come in only after private capital has abandoned them, after regional trading-bloc partners have been unable to throw a strong enough lifeline, after last-ditch attempts to borrow from powerful friends like China or the European Union have fallen through. You’re never at the top of anyone’s dance card.

The reason, of course, is that the IMF specializes in telling its clients what they don’t want to hear. I should know; I pressed painful changes on many foreign officials during my time there as chief economist in 2007 and 2008. And I felt the effects of IMF pressure, at least indirectly, when I worked with governments in Eastern Europe as they struggled after 1989, and with the private sector in Asia and Latin America during the crises of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Over that time, from every vantage point, I saw firsthand the steady flow of officials—from Ukraine, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, and elsewhere—trudging to the fund when circumstances were dire and all else had failed.

Every crisis is different, of course. Ukraine faced hyperinflation in 1994; Russia desperately needed help when its short-term-debt rollover scheme exploded in the summer of 1998; the Indonesian rupiah plunged in 1997, nearly leveling the corporate economy; that same year, South Korea’s 30-year economic miracle ground to a halt when foreign banks suddenly refused to extend new credit.

But I must tell you, to IMF officials, all of these crises looked depressingly similar. Each country, of course, needed a loan, but more than that, each needed to make big changes so that the loan could really work. Almost always, countries in crisis need to learn to live within their means after a period of excess—exports must be increased, and imports cut—and the goal is to do this without the most horrible of recessions. Naturally, the fund’s economists spend time figuring out the policies—budget, money supply, and the like—that make sense in this context. Yet the economic solution is seldom very hard to work out.

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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
1. Sounds like you're trying to create a division among two critics of Obama's/Geithner's plan
Divide and conquer?
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Either the IMF sucks or it doesn't
That's relevant. Now do you have an opinion about the content, the opinions expressed, in the OP?


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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. How is this topic relevant to the GD-Presidential forum?
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Is it about the administration's plan and policies?
Maybe you should go police the board for relevant violations.

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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. The two authors aren't debating with one another on the issue of the IMF
but they agree on one thing: Summers and Geithner are either crooks and/or incompetent.
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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. you did this with a couple of greider and roubini articles...and it doesnt make sense or an OP
I have no idea what you are trying to get at either here or here...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5350049
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. OMG!
I asked a question about opposing view points. Taboo!

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lxlxlxl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. No Dude/Girl/Whatever...you don't know how to write or get a real point across.
Your just pasting two articles and asking people what they think.

If you have a point just say it.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Or is it that you don't
understand what this means: "Reconcile these two points: Greider and Roubini"?

What point in that question would you like clarified?

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brentspeak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. I know what the point is:
Falsely portray, in the mind of the reader, the most notable critics of the Obama/Summers/Geithner trillion-dollar giveaway plan as somehow not knowing what they're talking about simply because they have differing viewpoints on the heist. Divide and conquer.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Then maybe you should ignore the thread.
It's obviously above your head.

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:34 PM
Response to Original message
9. Gaithner DOES have a poor track record
as does Summers.

Two guys who've repeatedly gotten it wrong....

Oh well, at least he's out at the NY Fed.

Unfortunately, another failure is ensconced at the SEC.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. I'm not going to defend Geithner or Summer, but it's curious to me
that most of the critics refuse to call this Obama's plan. It's his administration. When he expressed confidence in Geithner and signed off on the plan, it became the Obama plan.

Obama does not have a track record of failure. So given all the dubious charges, using misrepresentations of the plan, I doubt the Obama administration is going to do anything differently unless challenged on the facts.

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 02:49 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Interesting point
I think most observers recognize that Obama's evinced poor judgment as to his economic team- what went into his calculations, we can only speculate. I have my pet theories- as lots of others do.

Bottom line I think is that his progressive critics think he's doing a reasonably fine job in most other areas- and so focus on these sorry sorts, who may well take the fall.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. I don't see
how doing a reasonable job in most other areas precludes them for assigning ownership of the plan to Obama. If the economy doesn't recover, the crisis will reverberate in other areas.

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jonestonesusa Donating Member (630 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 03:32 PM
Response to Original message
15. The William Black interview is incredibly insightful and sobering
It should be essential listening for all who care about this issue and all who care about the fate of the huge public investments in the bailouts, as well as those who want President Obama to succeed. It's only public pressure that has any chance of allowing the political class to turn a deaf ear to this crisis. And as much as we bash Republicans for creating this crisis (they certainly had a hand in it), Democrats have been more likely to vote for the bailouts as a solution. I will contact Russ Feingold, who is my senator, and one of those who did not vote for the banking bailouts.

Thanks for posting this. I cannot recommend it enough!
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-07-09 04:35 PM
Response to Original message
16. Report: IMF to Warn of $4 Trillion in Losses
Monday, April 06, 2009

Report: IMF to Warn of $4 Trillion in Losses

by CalculatedRisk on 4/06/2009

From The Times: Toxic debts could reach $4 trillion, IMF to warn

Toxic debts racked up by banks and insurers could spiral to $4 trillion (£2.7 trillion), new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are set to suggest.

The IMF said in January that it expected the deterioration in US-originated assets to reach $2.2 trillion by the end of next year, but it is understood to be looking at raising that to $3.1 trillion in its next assessment of the global economy, due to be published on April 21. In addition, it is likely to boost that total by $900 billion for toxic assets originated in Europe and Asia.

It just keeps getting worse ...



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