Chances that Barack Obama will serve two terms:

[saltpoint]

- - -

We are only a few weeks into Obama's presidency. It is too soon to know most of the variables that will make up the political landscape in the primary/caucus cycle of 2011-12.

President Obama has drawn both sharp criticism and strong praise.

His approval ratings are convincing even as voters grow increasingly nervous about the nation's economy.

Weighing current issues and possible future developments, what do you believe are the chances that Barack Obama will serve two terms?

[kid a]

1. Very Likely

[bluestateguy]

2. I see his approval ratings following the pattern of Reagan from 1981-84

Meaning, get ready for his numbers to go below 50% by the end of the year and into the 40's by early next year. Then in 2011, I think you'll see him clear 50%, and be in the upper 50's by 2012.

[saltpoint]

4. It's possible. Reagan certainly hit a dead stretch there in the early 80s,

with the New York TIMES writing on its Op-Ed page, "The stench of failure hangs over the Reagan administration."

Pretty strong talk. Events conspired to lift Reagan up into "mythic" status and he remains popular among the die-hard conservatives.

Not very popular on DU, though!

[Drunken Irishman]

10. The difference was that the economy actually got worse in Reagan's first two years.

That's not likely with Obama. Reagan's numbers slipped because the country's economic struggles progressed and he started taking the blame of the voters. Fortunately for him, the economy rebounded just enough by 1983 that his numbers sharply rose and he easily won re-election.

If the indicators are correct and the economy is turning around, I don't see how Obama's ratings drop below 50%, unless it happens by the middle of this year, but it would likely rise with economic progress.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Dumb poll. He's been president for two months, ferchrissakes.

[saltpoint]

5. Addressed in summary text.

[Thrill]

6. 2 Months folks. 2 Months. Jeesh

I don't worry about Obama's election. I do however worry about mid terms. I see Democrats falling into the same traps.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Very likely.

For starters, most presidents are re-elected if they choose to run for a second term.

That right there is huge for Obama, because it means even if he doesn't do fantastic in his first four years, it's still very likely he's given another four.

Beyond that, however, I think the economy is already starting to show signs of stabilizing. By 2012, I expect economic progress to the point where it very well could deliver Obama a landslide election.

One thing that benefits Obama is that he's extremely likable. When you've got a president who people actually like, they can put their disagreements to the side and rally behind him. This is something that helped Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, as they bounced back from early struggles in their first term to rally for a second. But it also hurt the likes of Bush, his father and Jimmy Carter, who had difficulty sustaining American goodwill. Granted, Bush won re-election, but by the narrowest of margins and the economy had yet to really tank at that point. His father lost complete control of his presidency, even though a year and a half prior to the election, he held a 90% approval rating.

The bottom line is that Obama will most likely see his approval ratings anywhere from 50-65% through most of his first term. If the president has an approval rating of just 50%, it's very likely he wins in a comfortable margin. If Obama's approval ratings are on the high-end of those numbers, you're looking at a 1984-style blowout and with the likes of Sarah Palin, it's very possible that happens.

[saltpoint]

9. Several strong points.

Agree -- the Republicans have no one on their bench, really. Romney has the money but no warmth. Palin has the celebrity but no brains. And so forth.

The GOP is hurting these days.

[hedgehog]

8. 3 terms!

[high density]

11. Very likely but I know there will be a Nader type to split the left

The seeds are being planted as we speak.

[saltpoint]

12. There's a chance of that, but then again, Nader was on the ballot

in November and barely registered a peep.

For there to be a focused leftist split in the 2011-12 cycle, there will have to be a specific, issue-driven platform on which Obama's presidency is opposed.

I agree with you that the seeds are there, as they always are, but I'm not seeing the platform yet.

[Fire1]

18. Who gives a shit? Nader's old ass may be 86'ed by then.

[ObamaKerryDem]

13. I voted "Very Likely".

Don't want to be presumptuous (as we are still, of course, a few years out and it's quite early into his first term), but I think if he's even half as effective as he's proven himself to be thus far and the prospective GOP field for '12 stays like it appears now (Rather dismal. I mean, honestly, do you see ANY of these folks--Palin, Jindal, Romney, et al, having a real chance against Obama, at least from what we can see at the present?). Basically, we have to keep on the current course, while they have to play catch up--MAJORLY.. :evilgrin:

Plus, if George W. Bush could get a second term (I will always hesitate to say 're-elected', both because it turns my stomach and because there will always be questions about that election..), then goddammit, so can the MUCH more well-liked and MUCH more effective Barack Obama! :D

*crosses fingers*

[saltpoint]

14. I'm on board with that. Definitely.

I think it's more likely that we have not seen Obama play the high cards in his hand than it is that he's out of meaningful options for the crises we face.

Someone like Mitch McConnell is likely brooding at nights in his office, realizing that he will be presiding over a reactionary, weak-ass pack of whiney nincompoops for the next 8 years as minority leader.

[Zynx]

15. Extremely likely. The odds that the economy isn't turning around by 2012 are practically zero.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. I'd say the odds the economy isn't turning around by fall are pretty small, too.

[Sebastian Doyle]

16. The 2010 election is a bigger problem.

Unless this country has moved forward in a measurable way, we will lose significant numbers in the mid term elections. And if that happens, Obama will be unable to do shit. The media whores and electro-fraud machine companies are already planning for a Repuke takeover of Congress. The only way to stop that is massive turnout to keep a Democratic majority, and the only way that's going to happen is if they actually accomplish something.

Which isn't easy when you have turds like Evan W. Bayh and Spineless Reid (just to name two) standing in the way.

[saltpoint]

17. When my mind, such as it is, veers off into conspiracy theories, it sometimes

locates Evan Bayh's ego in the foothills of a challenge to Obama for the 2012 nomination.

I haven't voiced this out loud, as it's only a notion and not even advanced enough to be a theory.

And yet, there is Evan Bayh, at a moment when we could shove together as one team to push the Pukes back, mediating dilutions. I"m not not liking it.

That's Evan Bayh, and that's how he often behaves, but his timing is suspect, coming as it does early in Obama's term.

A powerful and focused grassroots org is required to forestall losses in 2010 in both chambers, I agree. Obama needs to work a lot more vivid magic than Carter did at this point in his first term.

I'm hoping to see stronger Democratic party orgs at the county level, coast to coast.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Thankfully, I think the growth will be there and Repubs will get their asses handed to 'em again.

[amandabeech]

29. I agree. If the economy hasn't shown real improvement by then,

it will be rough to gain any more seats in the Senate, which is where we really have to get our numbers up.

For 2014, I think that the economy is likely to be much better.

However, the war in Afghanistan may have a distinctly quagmirish look by then, and if we still have a lot of folks in Iraq, too, I think that it will be a problem.

[bornskeptic]

19. I'll say around 90%.

The American people very rarely throw a party out after its first term in the White House. Here are the last eleven times that situation came up.

1900 McKinley won
1916 Wilson won
1924 Coolidge won
1936 FDR won
1956 Eisenhower won
1964 LBJ won
1972 Nixon won
1980 Carter lost
1984 Reagan won
1996 Clinton won
2004 Bush won

While historical trends don't guarantee anything, 10 out of 11 looks encouraging.

Edited to correct year on McKinley twice

[AndyA]

22. If President Obama turns the economy around before his first term ends,

there's little doubt in my mind that he'll be around for another term.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Do you, like many economists, believe the economy is already turning around?

I believe the prediction is that we'll be out of the recession by the end of the year. If that's the case, he's a lock.

[saltpoint]

25. Agree. If the economic news is good, the ghost of Reagan himself

could not unseat Barack Obama.

And it's already a weak GOP field, right out of the gate.

[amandabeech]

30. So long as we aren't bogged down in war.

Remember, that was a big issue a year and a half ago.

Lots of folks initially flocked to Obama because of his anti-war stand.

Will they still be with him in four years if Afghanistan turns into a real mess like Iraq was, and hopefully won't be 3.5 years from now.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

23. 80%

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[Beacool]

27. Too soon to tell.

It will depend on the state of the economy in 3 years.

;-)