OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Dems Still in the Lead

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Quinnipiac (3/10-3/15, registered voters, 1/29-2/2 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 41 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 33 (27)
Lee Fisher (D): 41 (41)
Mary Taylor (R): 31 (27)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 39 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 34 (28)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (38)
Mary Taylor (R): 31 (26)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 51 (56)
John Kasich (R): 31 (26)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 50 (54)
Mike DeWine (R): 34 (32)
(MoE: ±2.7%)

John Kasich (R): 27 (22)
Mike DeWine (R): 32 (37)
Kevin Coughlin: 2 (3)

Rob Portman (R): 31 (33)
Mary Taylor (R): 14 (11)
(MoE: ±4.6%)

Lee Fisher (D): 18 (18)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 14 (16)
Tim Ryan (D): 12 (14)
Tyrone Yates (D): 6 (n/a)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Quinnipiac polls both the 2010 senate and gubernatorial races in Ohio in one sample (the gubernatorial race got a separate release, though); Democrats have to be fairly pleased with the results in each. There's been some erosion in their positions since early February, but every permutation currently points to a Dem victory.

In the senate race, both Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner are basically holding steady; the gains have mostly come from a few points worth of undecideds moving to the Republicans. Brunner/Portman is the only configuration that's polling within the margin of error. Despite the conventional wisdom that recruiting ex-Rep. Rob Portman was some sort of GOP coup, he remains largely unknown, with 67% of the sample not knowing enough about him to form an opinion. (Of course, that also means that he has a lot of room to grow, if Dems don't quickly define him and his Bush administration links.)

The Democratic primary is also largely undefined at this point, with 46% still undecided, plus another 12% for Rep. Tim Ryan, who has announced that he won't run and has endorsed Fisher. The entry of Cincinnati-based African-American state rep. Tyrone Yates into the race doesn't seem to have produced any major changes.

On the gubernatorial side, while Ted Strickland's approvals and head-to-heads have dropped a bit (56/30, down from 63/25 in early February), he's still in positive territory, which differentiates him from, well, just about every other governor as the economic climate forces them to contemplate draconian cuts and/or tax hikes. (Voters now disapprove of his handling of the state economy 39/45, the first time he's been negative on that measure.) With ex-Sen. Mike DeWine reportedly becoming more interested in running for state attorney general, Strickland may be left facing the seemingly weaker ex-Rep. John Kasich.


http://www.swingstateproject.com

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