Is Jindal's Demise Gingrich's Gain?

[ccharles000]

Bobby Jindal caught at least one break this week: Saturday Night Live was in reruns. But it's been a tough week for the Louisiana Governor. First there was his response Tuesday night to Barack Obama's unofficial State of the Union address, a performance panned by conservatives and liberals alike. Then, there were the questions about the veracity of a certain anecdote that Jindal relayed in his address (and questions about the wisdom of certain others). Finally, Jindal finished with just 14 percent of the vote in the CPAC straw poll, in spite of an audience full of young, smart and very conservative conservatives, exactly the sort of voter whom Jindal is supposed to appeal to.

It would be premature, to say the least, to write Jindal out of the 2012 script. Truly gifted politicians have nine lives and then some, and American politics are full of stories of embarrassment followed by redemption. Jindal's difficulties this week, moreover, were relatively minor ones. Nevertheless, in terms of momentum and buzz, Jindal's star got a little smaller this week, perhaps opening up space for another candidate who occupies a similar space in the Republican insterstellar medium. One such candidate is Newt Gingrich, who like Jindal, can plausibly claim both populist and technocratic credentials.

Out of all the authentically conservative Republican alternatives for 2012, Gingrich is perhaps the only one who has shown clear signs of avoiding the McCain/Palin campaign's mistake, which strove to try and win the race one 24-hour news cycle at a time, the longer-term damage to their brand be damned. Gingrich has picked his spots, urging Republicans to go after Tim Geithner but dissuading them from doing the same over Rod Blagojevich. He seems to understand that opposition-for-opposition's sake is not enough, having urged Congressional Republicans to propose an all-tax-cuts alternative to the stimulus package -- something they eventually did, but far too late in the day to get any serious attention. And he seems capable of at least a little bit of rhetorical moderation -- compare Gingrich's proposed slogan ("drill here, drill now, pay less") on the offshore drilling issue to the much shriller alternative eventually adopted by the McCain campaign ("drill, baby, drill!").

But if Gingrich is highly skilled at messaging -- is he necessarily the right messenger? On this account, there is more reason to be skeptical. Gingrich is not very popular; a CBS News Poll conducted in April 2007 showed that 43 percent of Americans had an unfavorable opinion of Gingrich, versus just 16 percent favorable (a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted at about the same time put the numbers at 29 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable). He has never been a candidate for Senate or Governor (let alone President) and his former Congressional District in Georgia was of the ruby-red variety, winnable by appealing to conservatives only. And Gingrich's opponents will have no absence of ammunition surrounding his supposed or real personal failings.


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/03/is-jindals-demise-gingirchs-gain.html

[dkf]

1. What about Sarah?

hee hee.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Chance of Gingrich being elected president:

≤ 0.

[Buzz Clik]

3. If being an unabashed bullshitter marked the end of a political career, then Biden is toast.

Clearly, it does not.

[theoldman]

6. Biden is not a bullshitter.

He just has a habit of saying things that are not politically correct. I have heard Biden being interviewed and he makes a lot of common sense.

[Buzz Clik]

7. Biden is a great man. I like him, but he too often shoots from the hip without the facts.

His comment about Roosevelt going on television was a good example.

My point is that politicians frequently try to make a point with only a slight gathering of evidence. It doesn't make them bad people or bad intentioned, just bullshitters.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

8. The art of bullshit is in sad disrepair.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Except Biden was holding office at the time he was selected as VP.

Gingrich hasn't been in office for a decade and if he remains out of office, it'll be almost 15 years since he held office if he decides to run for president in 2012.

Not comparable.

Gingrich is more comparable to a guy like Tommy Thompson or maybe Fred Thompson, though even they held office closer to the primaries than Gingrich.

[Jennicut]

14. Newt is an entity to himself

He left his wife when she had cancer for another woman! Biden took care of his kids while being a single father. Very different personalities going on there. Joe says things without thinking sometimes while Newt says things that he absolutely believes in for no purpose then to promote his huge ego. Newtie is very smarmy but he is not a bs-er as much as he is just in love with the sound of his own voice. I think Newt believes in every single idea he has ever had. God, I remember watching him throughout the 90's and all the battles he had with Clinton. He came out on the losing end. I think he is stale and old news anyways.

[montanacowboy]

4. Newtie is SO 1990's

He's toast.

[Jennicut]

15. Exactly. Its like me trying to go back and relive my college years again.

I never want to live in a dorm again or go to college keg parties. So circa 1995-1999. Never Ever. No one wants to relive Newtie and his smarmy Contract on America.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Newt would be a political goldmine

I DARE the GOP to run him in 2012 (or any other year for that matter). There's at least five to six years of baggage- GOOD material- that Obama and the Democrats could use against him- and he is certainly no moderate nor friend to just about any demographic he would need to win. He is rather full of himself however and wouldn't put him running past anybody- IMHO he would probably run if prompted/supported/encouraged to do so but him running would fully lay bare the abject hypocrisy of the "family values" crowd if they threw their weight behind him (and I'm sure they would because I've certainly never heard them denounce HIM)- given their antipathy and outrage about Clinton's moral failings back when he was President. Gingrich has more than a few well-known "indiscretions" under HIS belt. OCCASIONALLY, he might sound somewhat *reasonable* when talking about something or other but thinking about all of his BS and the fallout from his "revolution" in Congress during the Clinton years makes the idea of him running for President in 2012 both laughable and scary- usually at the SAME time. But I don't expect anybody *sane* to even get the chance to run for POTUS as a Republican anyway.

[backscatter712]

9. Oh yeah!

All we have to do is bring up how he shoved divorce papers in his first wife's face while she was in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery. That'll show his family values...

[Number23]

11. Reports of Jindal's "demise" have been greatly exaggerated

He is a Rhodes Scholar, son of immigrants, Republican with brown skin and a gorgeous exotic name at a time when those folks are desperate to at least LOOK like they don't just appeal to less-educated whites in certain parts of the country.

Jindal ain't going nowhere...

[cherish44]

16. I think that's true

Look how disasterous Sarah Palin was with her Katie Couric interview, she is still idolized. Jindal is pretty young, politically speaking, there's lots of time to hone him to speak like a nasty prick...

[Baikonour]

12. Only the far right still respect Gingrich.

The American public would never vote for him.

[saltpoint]

13. Fast-forward to the Iowa caucuses, fall of 2011 into January, 2012:

Who are the Republican hopefuls in this field?

Romney, almost certainly.

Huckabee, very likely.

Sarah Palin, also very likely.

But then who else? Jindal? Huntsman? Ron Paul, maybe?

What if Susan Collins thinks she has an opening and jumps in?

If Obama does well between now and then the Republican field is likely to be a far smaller bunch than the one that ping-ponged thru Iowa for the 2008 cycle.

And in that cycle the eventual GOP nominee didn't even compete in Iowa.

If Obama is felt to be vulnerable, the field will be crowded and cases will be made for the whole pack.

Gingrich could jump in, but it would be a cold, windy, crowded race out in those far western counties of Iowa. I'm not sure Iowa voters would be all that thrilled to see ol' Newt.

[KharmaTrain]

17. Well That Settles It...There's Only One Candidate...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_yz7jJwkhkwY/SKIdo7vcd2I/AAAAAAAAABo/Fw8v5NLIdyc/S1600-R/zombie+reagan.jpg