To those alarmed about some of the state polls

[lancdem]

Keep in mind these polls we're seeing showing Bush gaining in solid blue states like New York, Illinois and New Jersey or swing states like Florida and Wisconsin are almost certainly a by-product of the convention. This is Bush's peak - the numbers will swing back in a week or two. There is no chance Bush will win NY, IL or NJ; even his campaign knows that.

Also, state polls are a lagging indicator, so don't be surprised if some of the state polls still favor Bush even as the national polls show the race tightening. And don't worry about the lead Bush will build up in EVs; those numbers have been fluctuating for months.

[troublemaker]

1. They are probably a by product of 9/11 more than the convention

Every poll I've seen with 9/11 and/or 9/12 as a survey date is some surprising result

[lancdem]

3. Good point

I hadn't thought of that.

[Carla in Ca]

6. could be but never believe SUSA...jeepers, freepers!

[Parche]

2. bush

I cant believe that Bush would win NY IL or NJ
those were solid Gore states that he won by good margins
Some funny stuff is going on here, that they are trying
to make it look like everything is a solid dead heat
and they are using those voting machines and are trying
to undermine the election

[sonicx]

4. if that's the case then...

i hope to god that october surprise doesn't happen...

[Zynx]

5. I don't believe that states swing on their own.

I believe that generally they follow national trends with certain built in partisan margins following after that. For instance, Wyoming is 19 points more Republican than the rest of the country so if the race is 50-50, Wyoming is 69% Repuke.