Local CBS News says ILLINOIS in a DEAD HEAT!!!!!!!

[buycitgo]

I/m watching this now

believe it or not

they are completely insane, IMO

they say that Bush has climbed from a 13 point deficit, to within 4, which is within their four point MOE

conducted by SurveyUSA, whoever they are

anybody buying this

saying Bush is now leading swing voters by four percent, after trailing by FIFTEEN

sure

they say it's the SWIFT BOAT VETERANS ads that are driving it

and the only played in Illinois on national cable broadcasts

[buycitgo]

1. BTW......Obama leads by 41 in this survey, up from 39

that means he's ahead by 50

[Carla in Ca]

33. I don't follow SUSA , Survey USA

a few months ago, Ca. showed Kerry up by only 5 points!

[greatauntoftriplets]

37. Jeez, when I first saw your subject line....

...I thought this was about Obama and nearly hurled my dinner. Bad news and also good news.

[buycitgo]

2. I hope Bush is buying this..............

please come back, you toad

I want a chance to protest against you for the fourth time in Illiois

[Radical Activist]

4. Protest Cheney this Saturday in DeKalb

5pm at NIU campus

[buycitgo]

5. thank you! that will be FUN!

you going to be there?

anybody else?

will check Illinois thread

[Radical Activist]

17. I'll be there

it should be a good ole time

[Radical Activist]

3. Southern Illinois is in the St. Louis media market

so any ads ran in st. louis are viewed by a sizeable number of Illinoisans. Didn't the swift boat ads run in MO?

[lancdem]

6. A 4-point lead is not a dead heat

These Survey USA polls are showing Bush gaining in a bunch of states. I assume it's the effect of the RNC. In a week or so Kerry will be back in front by a decent margin. Relax, this is Bush's peak.

[buycitgo]

7. they're calling it a dead heat because it's within the MOE

that's how they justified their headline story

had it been a five point lead, they'd have said it was ALMOST a dead heat

[lancdem]

8. They're wrong

A dead heat is when the numbers are a tie. Typical pro-Bush media bias.

[buycitgo]

31. I know....that's the way they touted it

I report

you decide

[Sporadicus]

9. Regardless of Explanation

I have to call BS on this assertion.

[dogman]

10. It's hard to believe Obama wont have coat tails for Kerry.

They have taken Illinois for granted and I think even though Kerry doesn't have strong support outside of the insiders, ABB does.

[zaj]

39. With such a HUGE Obama lead, turnout could be low... hurting Kerry.

[dogman]

45. That's the good thing about this kind of poll.

It can be a wake up call.

[Trajan]

11. SurveyUSA is bogus ....

[buycitgo]

12. meant to ask in header what the deal was with them; that's why I

mentioned em

got any details?

thx

[Trajan]

16. SurveyUSA had a poll in CA

For the Gubernatorial campaign in 98 ... Lungren versus Davis ...

They were the only poll showing Lungren within the margin of error .... all other polls had Davis in double digits above Lungren ...

Davis won by double digits ....

I swear: these little fly-by-night polling organizations suddenly appeared on the horizon to spew their swill ... in an effort to sway undecideds to move their way, or to discourage leading parties ...

SurveyUSA has had some very questionable results in different states .....

[buycitgo]

19. ha........that was the FIRST thought I had when I saw that

I wondered if it could be the same bunch

thanks

[sonicx]

13. This same 'freaky poll' thing has happened in CA and NY too

yeah its odd, but we aren't gonna lose these states. I'd eat my own crap before it happened. :)

[buycitgo]

14. really.....it's a fifty stater for the fascists, if that's the case

[OilemFirchen]

15. SurveyUSA:

Computerized Response Automated Polling

[buycitgo]

18. you mean, they call on the phone and expect people to answer

a recording?

nothing gets me to hang up faster than that

speaking of which, how does one get on the nocall list

we're starting to suffer from the effects of being the last people in America NOT on it

[Cha]

20. You poor thing!

I got on that call list as soon as I heard they passed the bill in congress. And now they can't call you. I have Peace in my home now.

Sorry, I know..Never mind...here it is!!

http://www.ftc.gov/donotcall/

[buycitgo]

22. thanks! I started a thread in the Lounge on that, and got

only contumely! nobody gave me that link

shows how lazy I am, true, but I had other priorities

[Cha]

32. NO, I'm glad to have found it. I appreciate all

the work you do!

[OilemFirchen]

21. Yup.

Political Experts Call It “CRAP”

(NEW BRUNSWICK) – According to political expert Dr. Terry Madonna, Director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University, in recent years Survey USA has contributed to the increasing problem in politics of CRAP polling (computerized response audience polling) – which Madonna qualifies with, “we did not invent the acronym, but we do approve of it.”

This type of polling has recently resulted in Survey USA reporting results that were 21 points off in the Texas Senate primary, 19 points off in the California Gubernatorial primary, and 11 points off in the Newark Mayor’s race with Booker as the winner.

<snip>

“Social scientists have been sharply critical of CRAP polls for several justifiable reasons. One problem is the identity of the respondent. Your five year old can punch the keys on the telephone and voice her opinion, or your favorite uncle from Tulsa who happens to be around when the phone rings can have his say as well. Who really knows who’s on the other end of the phone? Real survey researchers call the practice the uncontrolled selection of respondents, and it can be a real source of error. It’s tantamount to standing on the street corner and haphazardly asking questions of anyone who happens by…

More at link.

[buycitgo]

26. thank YOU.......didn't even catch the acronym til now

gee....even the pResident could respond to that poll

and his results would be 'valid'

he'd probably mistakenly punch the K for Kerry button

[jefferson_dem]

23. Don't believe that. If Kerry can't win IL, it's a sign of a bigger prob

And that AINT going to happen.

At least, with Obama, IL may be one of those "reverse coattails" states.

[buycitgo]

28. yes...it's totally DESPICABLE of CBS to tout such a bogus poll

why not just poll in Lake Forest, Winnetka, Glencoe, Kenilworth

see what sorts of results you get there

they DID NOT say that SurveyUSA was a CRAP pollster, btw

they, of course, didn't say a word about methodology

they should be ashamed

but they're the media

[troublemaker]

24. Was 9/11 one of the survey dates?

[Gloria]

25. Survey USA has been used by many municipalites for polling....

It also had one of the more consistent records over the years for accuracy, from what I've read....

They may have changed their polling methods, recently, though...

[OilemFirchen]

27. Consistenf for... accuracy?

You don't say.

I'd love to see a cite.

[Gloria]

30. See additional comment....they have had a pretty good record over the

years... but if they've changed they way they poll, then all bets are off...

If they've gone to computerized telephone polling....then who really knows how they're getting a sample??

Back in the good old days, I used to pull ramdom samples manually....but that was the good old days...

[buycitgo]

29. did you see the other posts? the CRAP methodology?

sounds like they are pretty worthless now

[Romulus]

34. I don't even bother to care anymore about "polls" (n/t)

[buycitgo]

36. the PROBLEM is that the media go NUTS over stuff like this

and the idiots who are undecided are SWAYED, like the sheep they are, by stories like this, that tell them that others are changing their minds away from Kerry

have you seen ONE poll recently that has shown a swing away from Bush?

that's the danger

morans are easily led, and I consider anyone who can't make up his mind about *'s mendacious, fear-mongering incompetence to be notiing BUT a low grade moran

[Romulus]

38. true, true (n/t)

[Gloria]

41. That's what I was speculating....that the methodology is

not the one they used previously over the years and/or that it is suspect

[oldsneakers]

43. Don't believe Gallup (or Survey USA)

I've been looking at the internals in the Pa race which Gallup has Shrub up by 1 point. What is happening in this case is that Kerry is 4 points ahead in the raw totals but then Gallup & others apply recent census data and turnout data (for 2000)to predict what they think the actual turnout will be this year. Another big problem is new voters(mostly for Kerry)are severely under-represented as are inner city voters. Over-represented are elderly surburban voters which tend to support Bush by a small margin. I'm going to run my numbers by a statistician I know who has been doing population samples for over 30 years and see if he agrees-if he does I have Kerry up by 5 point in Pa.-Stay tuned.

[Gloria]

44. I can DEFINITELY state that Gallup isn't doing the type of sampling

that it did when I worked there back in the late 70's....

That was when the originator of all this, old George Gallup, was still walking the halls of Bank Street. After he died....well, it was sold to some outfit in Nebraska or someplace. The Princeton office is just an front for their "image."

Andy Kohut, who does the Pew Research polls and speaks on PBS and other shows all the time was a good guy when I worked for him (he was President alternating years back then.) His own firm is Princeton Survey Research and you'll see those polls around, too...

I tend to trust his work...however, with all the difficulties of getting good samples even those who try may not be doing the best job in spite of everything they say....

[Zynx]

35. Bullshit.

[buycitgo]

40. agreed.....WTF is happening in your cheezhead filled state?

Howard Fineman says Kerry is lagging because he said Lambert instead of Lambeau

did you hear about that?

[Gloria]

42. http://www.surveyusa.com/home.html

With their 12 year record, etc. for what it's worth.....

[0rganism]

46. Who are all the Democrats For Bush?

Why would someone vote for Barack Obama and W? It makes no sense.

Obama has a 40+ lead over Keyes. Kerry should have 10 over bush, at the very least.

[iwantmycountryback]

47. We just have to see the next poll

Once we see like a Rasmussen poll or a poll from a more credible source, I'm sure it will go back to normal. Remember this poll had Kerry up by 3 in Cali so I find it hard to believe.

[Teaser]

48. Thank you.

People panic around here too damn easy.

[rb22982]

49. Well

Not to say that SUSA isn't off a few points, they are generally high respected and considered completely unbiased. Their track record is very good. You can check the link on their website which averages their competitors MOE from actual results and their error from actual results and they come out very far ahead the great majority of the time. Rasmussun on the other hand is a terrible pollster. It's all automated calls and he was off in the 2000 election by 10+ points.