Why I think Kerry will win

[WI_DEM]

I'm sensing that the worst is over. The media, seems to go in cycles. Bush was riding high for the longest time, then he began to get increased scrutiny and his poll ratings began to go down. Kerry has had a month and a half of absolutely negative coverage and now I sense that it is beginning to balance out in the last few days with the debate over Bush's service in the National Guard and the Kitty Kelley book and an increased attack on Bush's policies at home and abroad by Kerry and Edwards. The news out of Iraq the last couple of days has been horrible. I think the pendulum is swinging back.

Considering we have just endured six weeks of non-stop negative attacks on Kerry he is actually in pretty good shape to begin his comeback prior to the debates which begin later this month. Bush's gains in the polls have mainly been in strengthening "red" states. Kerry is still, according to Rasmussen, Zogby, Fox, and other pollsters still leading in the "battleground" states and while his leads have slipped in some "blue" states it has stabilized and as the partisan divide re-opens Kerry will begin to expand his leads in states like California, New York and New Jersey to at least match the Gore numbers from 2000.

In the battlegrounds we have work to do, but let's face it they are called "battleground" states for a reason--the leads will switch back and forth and they will be evenly divided.

Pennsylvania--very close according to which poll you look at it is Kerry by a point or Bush by a point.

Michigan--While most other battlegrounds show Kerry losing some ground, Michigan has been pretty solid--he still leads by six points according to both Rasmussen and Gallup. If after six weeks of abuse Kerry still leads here by six--he probably will do very well in November--proabably better than Gore.

Ohio--Gallup has Bush up by 8--Rasmussen daily tracking has consistently the race as dead even. The fact that Kerry is putting so much time and effort (and money) here indicates that their private polls must indicate a close race as well.

Florida--SUSA comes out with a poll showing Bush up by six--big deal. Rasmussen shows the race very close between Bush and Kerry. Kerry has yet to spend alot of time there due to the natural disasters. Bush has been giving the state a ton of money and his brother is governor responding to hurricanes, ect. There is probably expected to be a small spike in Bush's favor. It won't last. This one will, like 2000, go down to the wire. In 2000 many polls had Gore down by 7-10 points in Florida.

Wisconsin--Again panic time becuz Gallup comes out with a survey giving Bush a 8-point lead. Rasmussen actually shows a small improvement for Kerry--behind by two points--rather than three which he was behind in August. Again it is too close to call, but so too was it in 2000--remember Gore won by only 5,000 votes. We have a secret weapond too--Feingold. Progressives of all stripes will come out for Russ. He will do well with Independents. The base will turnout not for a love of Kerry, but because they want Russ to win. But Kerry will benefit becuz 99% of them will also vote for Kerry.

Furthermore recent polls show that Kerry is actually in a better position at this time in states like Oregon, Washington, Iowa, New Mexico and Minnesota than Gore was in 2000. That is very promising. While everybody was freaking out over the Florida poll from SUSA they also had an encouraging poll from Nevada--only four points down. After these six weeks to be down only four points in Nevada and five points in Viriginia is very promising.

With the stepped up attacks on Bush by Kerry and Edwards and at least three debates to look forward to--John Kerry is beginning his comeback and by this time next month--the press will be singing another tune--"Can Bush comeback?"

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. thanks by the way I see it the way you do

but I hope yuo do not mind I sent this to my doubters list....

[WI_DEM]

2. No problem

[Senior citizen]

4. How can there be doubters?

It seems obvious to me that Kerry will get all the 2000 Gore votes, which alone were more votes than * got. In addition, Kerry will get almost all the 2000 Nader votes because the Greens are urging everyone to vote for Kerry and many have regretted their 2000 votes, all the votes from newly registered voters who registered because they saw F9/11 or were personally contacted by the Kerry campaign, and many votes from people who voted * 2000 and have since lost their jobs, seen their military benefits decrease, or seen their health costs rise. Kerry will also get the votes of the Florida Cubans who were for * until the chimp tried to stop them from sending packages to or visiting their Cuban relatives. The chimp did reverse himself on that one, but these people have long memories and carry a grudge. At best, they now see him as a flip-flopper.

As it is totally plain that Kerry will get more votes than the candidate who got the most votes in the 2000 election, and that this time there will be coordinated efforts to ensure that everyone is allowed to vote and that all votes will be counted, I don't understand how there can be any doubters.

[booksenkatz]

3. Don't worry 'bout Michigan

Yesterday in Canton, I got behind a Cheney-lookalike, tootling along in his brand new DeVille with a "W" sticker. To his right was a car with a Kerry sticker. To his left was a car with a unions for Kerry sticker. So we had the asshole surrounded. Go back up to Pukeland County, cretin! Here in Canton, you can't go 2 blocks without seeing Kerry support somewhere.

It still cracks me up that they can't even bring themselves to spell out "Bush" or "Cheney" on their bumpers. They're just too embarrassed. But hey, the first syllable of W summarizes this administration: DUH.

(And Ohio has lost its collective mind, they're hurting even worse than we are in Mich. What's up with that?)

[cthrumatrix]

11. glad to hear

[Beetwasher]

5. What! An Actual Well Thought Out, Level-Headed Analsysis?!

Great post, great analysis. Spot on. Kerry lost some ground recently, which was to be expected considering he couldn't really spend a dime in August and considering the massive propoganda assault on him, but is still in good shape.

[rniel]

6. Just reading clinton's book...

He talks about when he was in the 3 way race with Bush and ole Ross Perot the polls were showing that Ross Perot would beat both of them. Then didn't he end up with 3% of the vote. The polls are a bunch of crap.

[WI_DEM]

8. Actually in '92 Perot got 19% of the national vote

but yes at one point there were polls showing Ross beating both Bush I and Clinton.

[noonwitch]

10. I'm glad Clinton won, but wouldn't a Ross presidency been entertaining?

Just one of those things I wonder about sometimes.

[vickie]

7. Fantastic and very rational analysis. It seems as though the

clouds of doom and gloom are slowly subsiding from this and other Dem websites. It's great to see - because I think it reflects that things are better on the ground for the campaign. The inflated post bounce polls are beginning to subside and eventually the press will have to report Kerry's reality.

There is usually a 7 - 10 day lag on campaign media/press assessments once the positive reality becomes apparent even to the lazy uncurious dimwits in the press (except for the case of Gore where the press wrote his obit up until the last week - and were then shocked when he received more votes).

[Romulus]

9. great news, keep the momemtum going (n/t)