Survey USA Florida Poll: Bush 51, Kerry 45

[TSIAS]

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

There is some good news out of this poll. Castor starts the Senate race 4 points up on Martinez.

Castor (D) 49%
Martinez (R) 45%
Other/Undecided 6%

[andino]

1. 607 Likely Voters

[Must_B_Free]

4. Wow, 607. that's a HUGH sample

NOT

[The Backlash Cometh]

11. They probably stopped calling when they got the results they

were looking for.

[Droopy]

7. That's a pretty small sample size

And the margin of error is 4.1%.

[tritsofme]

8. Total sample was probably a little over 900

and that's not bad for a state poll.

[TexasSissy]

2. Sh*t. I knew those hurricanes wouldn't help (us).

[Green Hornet]

5. Florida is a southern sinkhole.

Forget it. We were competitive last time because Lieberman was on the ticket. This year, it is a money pit.

Assuming we can flip West Virginia and New Hampshire (highly likely considering the changing demographics), we only need to win one of the following to make Florida irrelevant-- Tennessee (Al Gore can help here), Arkansas (Bill Clinton can help here), Ohio (the economy will help here), Nevada or Arizona (changing demographics will help here).

Any of the aforementioned states are winnable and there may be more. Two states which Gore narrowly won in 2000-- New Mexico and Oregon, won't even be close this time due to changing demographics. Color them safe. Ditto for Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. This is a brainy region and people will naturally gravitate to the brainer candidate. Dukakis won all three in 1988 and Daddy Bush was a far more formidable candidate than the boy.

Other possible pick-ups are Missouri, Virginia and Louisiana. If Kerry gets lucky, Florida too. But money would be better spent in Tennessee, Ohio, Arkansas, Nevada and Arizona.

With the right people campaigning for him, a corpse could beat Bush. If Kerry doesn't, he ought to have his head shaved and drummed out of the party.

[DarthDem]

9. Good Call

But actually, if Kerry wins all the Gore States and NH, he doesn't need WV - - just add any one of the other states you mentioned, except NV, and he wins.

I go back and forth on whether Florida is a sinkhole. I think the real problem is that we can't be, ahem, quite sure of a fair deal as far as the ballot box. :eyes:

[Green Hornet]

10. Florida is not unattainable . . .

. . . it just isn't worth the effort of neglecting the mentioned key states. Most of the polls indicate New Hampshire is or will shortly be moving into the safe column. WV and/or NV will guarantee a tie. Any one of the other states (including WV AND NV) will guarantee a win.

I don't think it is that hard given both the changing demographics and a hard four year dose of reality. Nobody I know is voting for Bush, even though some of them did last time around.

Kerry's saving grace is not that he is a good campaigner or even a good candidate, it is that he isn't Bush. As noted elsewhere on this thread, he needs to move past Vietnam, stop worrying about a handful of votes that Nader could be siphoning off and start concentrating on his real opponent. If he doesn't, he'll be grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Anaxamander]

12. Of COURSE Florida is attainable!

Florida was a Gore state in '00 and Clinton won it in '96.

[HFishbine]

13. I'd add another to your list of possibles

North Carolina. 15 electoral votes and Kerry only down by 4 in the latest Survey USA poll.

[RoyGBiv]

3. Survey USA

Let's see. That's the same polling company that measured a two week shift in California resulting in Kerry going from a 3 point lead to a 10 point lead. Two weeks ... in California ... where 7% equals hundreds of thousands of votes.

Ummm ... okay.

[tritsofme]

6. 5% of the time polls will be complete BS

Pollsters can only say that their results are within the stated margin of error with 95% certainty.

Survey USA has not yet polled a presidential election, but they did nail Davis being recalled in CA, and Arnold's subsequent election.