9/14 Bad news and Good news for Kerry: 274 EV, 59% Win Prob.

[TruthIsAll]

First, the bad news:
The state polls are confirming the recent national poll average.

The current average of 17 National polls:
Kerry 45.82% / Bush 47.53%

State polls weighted by pop. add up to the national equivalent:
Kerry 45.58% / Bush 47.28%

95% confidence interval: 316EV - 232EV

Now, the good news:
State polls LAG the national polls.
He's still leading in the 5000 simulation average projected EV.
He's seen his national poll lows and is moving back up.
He's ahead by 2% in the just-released IBD/CSM poll and within 1% of Bush in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll.

As Kerry's average national poll numbers rise, so will the states - and his average EV will climb right back over 300... and beyond.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[TruthIsAll]

1. And Professor Sam Wang agrees precisely...

Today's median (expected) outcome: Kerry 273 EV, Bush 265 EV (map)

Kerry 95% confidence band: 242-309 EV

Kerry Electoral College win likelihood: 59%

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

[Andromeda]

2. Good news, TIA

:kick:

[MissB]

3. Uh, edit your title, please

You only have a 59% confidence, instead of 95%!

[MissB]

4. Never mind

I am trying to read the board tonight with only one contact in. Sigh.

[TruthIsAll]

5. It IS 59%. That's what happens when you are projected for 274 EV.

tia

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Agreed, this week's state polls are a reflection of the inflated bounce

The bounce that has all but faded.

The state polls will fall back in line in 7-10 days, then likely settle for a week or so, before the crucial first debate on Sept.30.

[blue neen]

7. TIA, please do me a favor

and reassure me about PA again.