2010 Senate Map May Not Be Much Better for the GOP

[ccharles000]

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_54/politics/29929-1.html

By Shira Toeplitz
Roll Call Staff
November 6, 2008
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Senate Democrats may not have achieved a filibuster-proof caucus on Election Day, but they might have a second shot at reaching 60 seats in 2010.

It appears that Senate Democrats can play offense in 2010 for the third cycle in a row. Democrats must defend 16 Senate seats next cycle, but Republicans must defend 19 seats — including those held by more than a half-dozen incumbents in competitive states.

It wasn’t long after the polls closed Tuesday night before Republicans began staking out their turf. Hours after his colleague Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) lost re-election, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) squelched retirement rumors by telling local reporters he would run for another term in 2010.

Gregg will likely have a tough re-election race: Democrats have taken both House seats and Sununu’s Senate seat in the past two cycles, and popular Gov. John Lynch (D) is rumored to be considering challenging the three-term Senator. In the unlikely case that Gregg reverses his decision and retires, former 2nd district Rep. Charles Bass (R) has not ruled out running for the seat.

Democrats may have watched the Mississippi and Kentucky Senate contests slip away from them Tuesday night, but the party will have another chance at the South in 2010.

[ccharles000]

1. kick

[Essene]

2. It depends entirely on how the Dems handle 2009

It seems to me that the social conservatives refuse to back down. They've laid claim to the "conservative" flag and are already arguing that the mistake of this election was having a moderate run. They refuse to face facts or to reflect seriously on the tone of their culture wars.

The truth is... there was little major "flipping" in counties around america between 2004 and 2008, but regardless, the GOP are losing sway over independents and moderates. The party has become anchored down by the nativism, fear mongering, anti-intellectualism and theocracy seen in Sarah Palin.

Their self-defeating rhetoric about government always being bad, about laissez faire policy, about trickle down economics and about "real america" will no suddenly regain sway over independents. Even if Obama struggled severely over the next 2 years, the GOP couldn't expect to make huge gains from a raw reactionary position... because they aren't at risk in those districts.

A lot of states and counties really could flip in 2010 if the Dems remain pragmatic and work from the center.

If the dems themselves overplay their hand on ideological stuff or on wedge issues in 2009, the GOP could reignite a 1994-style backlash. If the Dems stay moderate, pragmatic and govern from the center... moderate republicans will be FORCED to openly break from the right-wing.

The GOP Governors will be doing the same. This will be a very serious time and the public will reward those who can put ideological stuff aside and get down to very simple, basic problem solving.