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I've been thinking through the history on this one and things look pretty good for Barack Obama in the macro sense. If a president comes in with a lousy economy, their job is somewhat easier in getting re-elected than presidents who come in with a strong economy. Think about presidential history. Clinton comes in with an economy that was quite weak and was easily re-elected, Reagan came in with a weak economy and was easily re-elected, Nixon came in with an economy that soon went into recession and was re-elected by a landslide, FDR came in during the Depression and won a historic landslide, and McKinley came in during a depression and was easily re-elected.
There are few instances of presidents coming in at a time where the economy is lousy who do not succeed in being re-elected. The reason is that no matter how deep the morass the economy tends to recover noticeably by four years later and the people are grateful for it, whether the president deserves it(FDR) or not(Reagan).
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