I think not focusing more on Arkansas is a mistake

[last_texas_dem]

I posted this as a response to another thread but figured I'd give it a thread just to see if I'm crazy or not.

I think the campaign may be missing an opportunity in not focusing more heavily on Arkansas. America Coming Together has still not opened an office there, last I checked, and now Kerry is cutting back on running ads there. But look at the polls:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/arkansas.html

Kerry has been consistently only one or two points behind Shrub and once led.

I know AR is only six electoral votes, but I think the campaign may be making a mistake by focusing too heavily on OH and FL. Sure, if we carry one of them and hold on to Gore's 2000 states we're in, but if we maintain the Gore 2000 states (and the only ones I'm slightly nervous about holding onto are PA, NM, and WI... maybe I'm being too optimistic) and pick up NH and AR, that's 270 and that's all we need. Just seems like a good back-up strategy...

I don't know... I guess I just have faith in a state that elected Clinton several times and currently has two Democratic Senators and three out of four of its Reps being Democrats. I don't know that Shrub is putting much of an effort in to it, so I figured with a little work it might be a fairly easy pick-up. I'm obviously no strategist, though, that's just my take.

[Sufi Marmot]

1. I agree...

I hope they have a strategy for turning both Clark and Clinton loose there during the last ~10 days of the campaign. Are there significant Democratic GOTV and new voter efforts there?

-SM

[last_texas_dem]

2. I'm not sure about the GOTV effort

The fact that America Coming Together had plans to open an office there but still hasn't at this date probably isn't a good sign. There could be some good grassroots efforts, though; with the amount of Democrats representing the state I'd figure the party is fairly strong there but I really don't know a whole lot about Arkansas. From what I've heard about the economy there it seems like if the Kerry campaign focused on those sorts of issues they could strengthen their support there.

[Sufi Marmot]

5. Seems like a little effort and resources could go a long way there...

...unlike OH where they are pouring in lots of resources to no obivious advantage (at this point, we'll see how it all plays out...) :shrug:

I think Kerry should be able to win one "red" state from each of the two following groups:

a) AR, MO, or TN
b) NV, CO, or AZ

If he can do this Bush will have a very hard time winning the election.

-SM

On edit: I think he has the best chance of picking up AR from a) and NV from b), although MO and AZ are still plausible

[last_texas_dem]

6. I agree

I think MO and AZ are both closer than the most recent polls show; I'm not sure how much I trust polls showing such a radical pro-* swing as the recent polls in those states indicated. And NV and, surprisingly, CO both look to be possibly up for grabs.

I dunno, perhaps the campaign is just trying to maintain enough funds to compete with heavy advertising in October but, as you note, focusing so heavily on states like OH thus far may not have paid off as much as it should, while there are other states it could have more effect in.

[Leilani]

3. I agree.

Betting all on Fla & Ohio is not the best idea.

If we hold Gore states & then pick up a few smaller states, we still win, like Arkansas, New Hampshire, West Va, Nevada, etc.

But we must hold the Gore states.

[last_texas_dem]

7. Yeah

NH is looking very good to me; actually, it's looking safer than some of the "Gore" states right now. But overall, we don't seem to have lost much (and in some cases any) ground in the states Gore carried in 2000, which is why I don't think it's too dangerous to focus on a state like AR (or NV, as you pointed out).

[featherman]

4. I like a strong play for AR too along with NV AZ and CO

Kerry will likely continue to strengthen in the Gore states (+NH). I have no worries about PA or NM and am feeling better about WI. That is 264. Gotta go after MO, OH, FL, of course, but Kerry could lose all and still win the EC by taking AR, AZ, or CO (NV would only tie)

[last_texas_dem]

8. Not so worried about NM...

...as I had been considering the most recent poll that has Kerry up by 10 there. PA only worries me b/c the most recent poll has Shrub up 1 (though it was a Gallup, which seems to be the most Re:puke: leaning polling organization there is) when Gore carried the state by 5. Shrub has been putting in a lot of effort up there, I guess. Definitely important we hang on to Gore's states, though, so we can work from there. I'm generally optimistic about our chances...