Were there any states that Democrats could get in 2012?

[Ah Xoc Kin]

Any red states
Some of them were so much for McCain
but I remember seeing percents that weren't far apart

[FLAprogressive]

1. AZ

[cemaphonic]

6. Yeah, Without McCains hometown advantage

I think we would have picked up AZ this time.

[jillan]

12. If they would have campaigned here - esp in Phoenix - they would have done much better.

This was a really heartbreaking loss to so many in Az.

[blondeatlast]

22. I thought we'd have gotten at least a whistle-stop. I remember Kerry's Flagstaff visit--

15K were there from all over our huge state (including me and Zombywoof).

I understood concentrating the resources but it could have boosted downticket races (and Lord, did we have some critical ones!).

[AZBlue]

20. Definitely.

[tekisui]

2. MT, ND, GA, LA, TX, AZ, AK.

Just for starters.

[TheWraith]

5. I don't know about LA and TX, they seemed pretty solid.

But don't forget MO. Hell, we're only 8K votes behind there now.

[tekisui]

8. I did forget about MO.

If things go well, we can make some more inroads in all these states. 2010 should be a building year, and 2012 a new batch of Blue states.

[rainbow4321]

18. Actually, the repuke-Dem win/loss spread has been cut in HALF

from 2004/2000. Chimpass won it by 20+ points in his prez elections...last night gramps took it by 11.75%. And that change in % is without Obama/Biden even coming down to campaign here (post primary).

Problem is, except for those of us living here IN Texas, no one really is acknowledging this..all they see is red, red, red..forget the shade of red, they just see red. Notice the talking heads ignored the TX stats as long as they could last night. Cuz they couldn't bring themselves to say that for a while it was going 48-52 for a loonnnggg time. The urban counties and the far South TX counties were all going blue. It took them an HOUR to "call" the state for mcgramps last night. Bet you they did it within minutes of poll closing in 2000/2004.


http://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_141_state.htm

John McCain/ Sarah Palin 55.47%
Barack Obama/ Joe Biden 43.72%

2004:
George W. Bush/ Dick Cheney(I) 61.08%
John F. Kerry/ John Edwards 38.22%

[onehandle]

10. Not GA, LA, TX, or AK. Not a chance. nt

[tekisui]

14. You're right, not AK.

GA- 5 points
LA- 19
TX- 11
Yeah, probably not AK. The others are not insurmountable. I can see a scenario where the new gains can be secured and resources put in new places.

[TheWraith]

21. I wouldn't say AK is out of reach. We were nearly tied there before Palin. nt

[Fovea]

3. Missouri

assuming Obama does not win on recount.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. It will take a lot of work

Personally, I think the reason Arkansas is so red is the propaganda spewed out by so many of the fundamentalist churches. We had a patient come in today who was afraid because her preacher had told her Obama is the Anti-Christ and she's terrified of what is going to happen. I'm hoping that once these people see what kind of President Obama is they will realize how badly they were lied to.

[napi21]

7. I don't mean to pick on you, or sound nasty, but can we PLEASE

not mention 2012 for at least a year? I swear this 08 race has been talked about since 2004, and although I'm thrilled with the results, I'm just campaigned out!

[Joe the Revelator]

17. AMEN

[KingFlorez]

9. AZ, GA, ND, SD, MT

The numbers in these states improved very well. I also think AR, LA and TN could improve with work and time. In addition to electoral votes, we still need to lay enough groundwork where Democrats have a better shot at getting elected to Congress, statewide offices and the state legislatures, all of that is very important as well.

[TheKentuckian]

11. Its more of which ones can we not get

Tennessee, Utah, S. Dakota, Oklahoma, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina come to mind.

[Smuckies]

13. AZ, MT, MO, GA, LA, ND, SD, KS, KY

[ElboRuum]

15. Most of them...

Provided that the people in those states end up more well off by then. I think they will be.

[Johonny]

16. Let's see how Obama does then talk in 3 years

If he does a good job reelection isn't that big a concern.

[Arkana]

19. Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Montana, and the Dakotas with some work.

[liberalpragmatist]

23. First tier: MO, AZ, GA, SD, ND, MT

Obama very nearly won Missouri -- we should get it next time. Arizona could very well have gone for Obama had McCain not had a home-state advantage. Once early votes are counted, Georgia could be within 5 points. And Montana was very close and both Dakotas went for McCain by only a 6-7 point margin.

The next tier comprises Texas. Yes, it voted for McCain by a decent margin, but demographic changes should push this towards swing-state status within a few cycles. If Obama is popular in 2012, he could very well win it.

Next tier: West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and even Kansas and Nebraska. WV and AR will vote for many Democrats but the cultural chasm between Obama and them was simply too vast. If he's a popular incumbent, though, they may flip back. Louisiana voted for Clinton (it gave Clinton a MAJORITY both times), so again, if Obama's a popular incumbent by 2012, it might be doable. Mississippi looked competitive early on and depends on whether Obama can increase his vote totals among white voters in MS. It's the same story with South Carolina. Nebraska and Kansas are big longshots, but he may at least be able to pick up a couple districts in Nebraska and Kansas *might* be doable.