Rassmussen nailed it. 52-46. what happened to turnout?

[sarahdemva]

i think rasmussen was the most stable poll and got it exactly right. i may be wrong but it doesnt look like turnout will be any higher than in 2004.

[Marsala]

1. Turnout is higher, just not by huge margins

Also the larger turnout didn't throw the polls off after all.

[sarahdemva]

2. turnout may be less than in 2004

bush got 62 million votes and kerry 59 million. right now Obama has 62 million and mccain 55 million.

[democrattotheend]

11. Still lots of votes to be counted

Only 91% reporting in CA, 74% in Oregon, 87% in Colorado, 96% in OH, 56% in WA, 62% in OR, 97% in MA. And a lot of the outstanding votes are probably in big urban precincts, especially in Ohio. Ohio is currently way too close for them to have called it as early as they did.

[tigereye]

16. yeah it looked from some maps as if there was still a lot to count last night

I was kind of surprised....


What about Prop 8?

[book_worm]

14. those vote totals will go much higher, lots of votes still to be counted.

[adigal]

3. I just saw something like 117,000,000 votes, which is much

higher than in 2004, no? Anyone remember those numbers?

[sarahdemva]

no

i dont think young people showed up. i dont get it.

[regnaD kciN]

6. If. last time...

...it was 62M Republican and 59M Democratic, and this time it was 62M Democratic and 55M Republican, it wouldn't have to do with "young people not showing up," but rather with people in our demographic showing up quite well, and people in their demographic not showing up at all.

[WCGreen]

15. Excellent point....

[SemiCharmedQuark]

12. AP reporting it could the highest turnout since 1908

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i34ao3tow5yhj2v7v24HM_wbT8JQD948LJRG0

[regnaD kciN]

4. Actually, it's now 52-47...

A five-point margin, as opposed to the 7.6 predicted by Pollster.com and RCP, and the 6.1 projected by 538.com. Maybe there was a "Bradley effect" after all, totaling somewhere between 1.1%-2.6% :shrug:

[sarahdemva]

5. zogby stunk

and the polls with +10 leads at the end were way off.

[SidDithers]

13. Wait until all the results are in...

It'll be closer to 55-45 than it is now.

Sid

[Franks Wild Years]

9. Bill Clinton's final share was also over estimated both times.

It happens, it's within the margin of error. McCain probably just roused some more or his lukewarm supporters to the polls with his final day efforts.

[bigbrother05]

7. Have the early votes been rolled into the totals?

Usually those come in after the precinct reports. Also, there are probably significant vote-by-mail ballots that might not be included.

While it would be great for O to have all the "...est" awards, I'm fine with newest President!

[sarahdemva]

8. i agree!!

i was just thinking of that one site that said it would be 74 million to 64 million.

[Life Long Dem]

10. Voter turnout rate best in a century AP story.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i34ao3tow5yhj2v7v24HM_wbT8JQD948LJRG0