Polls: the positive side.

[Teaser]

On the positive side, at least this is the end of this current batch of polling. We can all take a breather (although the Gallup tracking poll starts soon)and watch Bush's numbers come down, which they will do. They are artificially inflated by HateFest '04 and questionable likely voter models. Generally, though, likely voter models get better the closer you are to an election and HateFest will eventually fade from memory.

So the situation: either we have a decent Bush lead or we have a nearly tied race. It's not like this is a continuum, in which case I would think that the correct polling lies in between 2 sets of polls. We don't know which group is right. We do know the numbers will close soon.

So take heart, buck up, and kick some ass. The worst is behind us.

[Placebo]

1. every poll i see has bush ahead

i don't get it, how stupid can americans be

[dennis4868]

5. I AGREE

This election should not even be close if the truth mattered....it amazes me that a guys who flat out lies us into a war that has killed over 1000 soldiers and who's WH is full of corruption and lies that affect so many people in this country, and are just plain nasty people if you try to get in their way are not only close to a war hero in the polls but are now leading in many polls and pulling away in some battleground states....up is down, and down is up! This makes no sense....who is too blame for this?

I may get flamed at but Kerry is in the process of getting Gored and I dont even think he knows it....i followed the 2000 and I know when I see someone getting (Al) Gored.....when DD Myers goes on Hardball, the day the 1000th soldier was killed because of Bush's lies, and all she does is happily hammer away at Kerry for going windsurfing and not playing basketball instead during the RNC, I know we are in trouble.....i am getting the feeling that Kerry is losing control of this election and it is quickly slipping away....it is hard to fully blame Kerry....no matter who Bush's opponent was he would get unfairly hammered by Bush and his friends in the corporate media.....how does Kerry take away Bush's momentum at this point when the media has settled into Goreing him? No matter what Kerry says or does he will get bashed by the so-called liberal media....

[Placebo]

7. yea, THIS ELECTION SHOULDN'T EVEN BE CLOSE

just like 2000 shouldn't even have been as close as it was.

what the hell are we doing wrong?

[lancdem]

8. I wouldn't say that

In order for Kerry to have a big lead, Bush's approval rating would have to be in the low 40s or worse. The conventio has driven it up 50 in a number of polls, although that should fade.

[dennis4868]

9. WELL I CAN SEE....

why the 2000 election was close....maybe not as close as it should be....but this election the republican party has a criminal as their candidate and the dems a war hero....if only the media would inform people about Bush's and his crimes and lies....most people do not have time to do the work that it now takes to get to the truth of the matter regarding Bush and his thugs. Therefore, they rely on the media and we all know what good that is....most people think that the media is fair and believe what they hear and see on the picture toob!

[bain_sidhe]

11. Cheerfull little fella, aintcha?

Relax. Take a deep breath. Yes, they're not fair yet, but we're having an impact. We've got to keep "working the refs," as the Repugs did for 20 years - call 'em out every time they parrot repug spin, or refuse to cover the Democratic side of an issue... shout "MEDIA BIAS!! MEDIA BIAS!!" every time you see it, write letters, make calls, raise a stink!

We ARE having an effect - Gore's treatment was far worse. In 2000, none of the Guard story would even have been covered. Cheney's "threat" would have been deep-sixed, and all the reporters would profess to not know what those crazy Democrats were talking about. There would be questions of whether Demcrats were losing their grip on reality when they talked about how Iraq *wasn't* going well, and mentioned that there were no rose petals to be seen in the path of our advancing troops. Abu Ghraib would have been a blip in the cable news crawl, if that. We're getting there, but you gotta stay strong! Either that, or go hide under the bed while the rest of us keep fighting, 'cause we don't need gloomsters sapping our will.

**edit due to an itchy apostrophe finger!**

[RevCheesehead]

2. Nobody "polled" me!

But then again, my modem has been tying up the phone line.

[ampster]

3. One telling sign of either Candidates momentum.....

We can discern the true reading of the competitiveness of either based on the level of campaign spending in the battleground states.

[Demi_Babe]

4. Thank you

[lancdem]

6. Thank you

I was just about to post a thread on how confusing the polls are. Just today, we had the following: Rasmussen, Bush up by .7 percent; Economist, Bush up by 1; Fox, Bush up by 2; CBS, Bush up by 8; and WaPo, Bush up by 9. It's weird that there's such a gap.

But I agree that Bush will drop. No one ever stays at their convention high. And when polls start showing a decline, it'll look like Kerry has momentum.

[Teaser]

10. Maybe More good news:

I read on DKos that registered voters are a tie. If that's true, then this 9 point lead is pure voodoo from the likely voter screen.

That's too f*ckin' big a difference. I'll buy a 5 point lead from the model. But not 9.

[lunarboy13]

12. Exactly...

I think a great many registered voters who did not vote in the last election or two will be voting this time to oust Bush. Not to mention that there will be a whole new crop of voters this time around that do not factor in to the "likely voter" models either.

My only wish is for Ralph Nader to drop out and endorse John Kerry. That would certainly give us a boost...

[leyton]

13. From here on out...

Kerry will go up in the polls, and any progress he makes will be rock solid, it will be concrete. No bounce from primaries, no bounce from conventions, no bounce from a VP pick. He'll rebuild a lead, and it will have staying power.