Are Exit Polls Good News for Us or Not?

[TeamJordan23]

I am reading conflicting things on the board. Is it a potential blow out for Obama or is the race tight?

[cliffordu]

1. the exit polls can be notoriously bad or spot on...who knows??

[Warren Stupidity]

7. The exit polls were ODDLY bad once: 2004.

Generally they are very accurate.

[Kurt Remarque]

12. don't dis them too much. they called the correct numbers in the...

stolen elections in 2000 & 2004

[deadparrot]

2. It all goes to show how meaningless they are.

Yes, they're fun to get, since we're desperate for any information, but ultimately, it's all bullshit.

[MNDemNY]

3. Wait for the flash, then HOLD ON !!!!!

[graywarrior]

4. Due to early voting, exit polls won't be accurate

[woolldog]

11. we can assume that Obama won early voting...

[graywarrior]

15. Yes.

[tclambert]

18. And it's hard to get a truly representative sample

The error margins for exit polls are much larger than for regular polls. That's the word from Nate Silver, the genius behind 538.com, whose name should be spoken with the same reverence as Randolph Scott's name in Blazing Saddles.

[high density]

5. They're interesting for demographic info

But I wouldn't get excited either way based on them.

[Naturyl]

6. They don't mean much anymore.

They are interesting but unreliable. Wait for real results.

[Hamlette]

8. Ten reason not to believe exit polls...by Nate

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html

[Bonn1997]

13. Steve Freeman has debunked virtually all of those claims

http://www.amazon.com/Was-2004-Presidential-Election-Stolen/dp/1583226877

[tclambert]

19. Reason #10: You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway

But I ate a slice of coconut cream pie! I'm bouncing up and down waiting for numbers! Aaagh! Feed me numbers! Feed me, Seymour, feed me!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

9. EXIT POLLS Does not include early voting

[BzaDem]

10. YES THEY DO.

They do telephone polls for early voting and then mix them.

[mvd]

14. Overall so far, I'd say yes

At least from what's been officially reported.

[ShadowLiberal]

16. Exit polls typically overstated Obama's support by 7% in the primaries

Also exit polls aren't conducted in the final hours of the campaign, so they miss late voters.

Personally I'm not trusting exit polls this time around, especially with conflicting headlines I'm reading here, like Drudge claiming Obama's winning big in exit polls, while also claiming some swing states are very tight.

[Motown_Johnny]

17. Don't believe the exit polls, but take heart. They are good