How does * have a 8% lead in Ohio?

[edhopper]

Gallup puts it at 52% to 44%. Could someone from the Buckeye State please tell me how a state that has been so devastated by *'s economic policies still support him? If this is mid-America's thinking, we are all doomed.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Gallup could be wrong

just a thought.

[veteran_for_peace]

2. It is called fear

You spread enough fear around and people would vote for Hitler.

[dennis4868]

11. people would vote for Hitler

not only would they....they did. My grandfather was in Germany when Hitler rose to power and he tells me that Bush is following the same playbook as Hitler....lie, use people emotions to your benefit, and scare the shit out of the people....really sad!

[Snivi Yllom]

3. CBS also called a big OH lead this am.

looking for numbers....

Zogby also has Bush up by 11.

[acmavm]

4. Make dems believe that Kerry doesn't have a chance and they may

stay away from the polls. Trying to discourage people. They did it in 2000, they're doing it now.

[volosong]

5. IGNORE: LIKELY A 2 POINT DIFFERENCE, WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR

[farmbo]

6. This lead is as elusive as Bush's 1972 ANG fitness reports...not to worry

Both The Columbus Dispatch and API showed the race a dead heat (with Kerry actually improving 4%)in late August.

Gallop shows the now-discredited Bush bounce.

It means nothing.

[gasperc]

7. i don't know

how?

[gasperc]

8. worse yet, look at MO

at 14 point swing, even electoral-vote is saying WTF

me thinks they are only polling the GOP or using ridiculous weighting

[johnnie]

9. It's crap

I was just talking to a woman here at the office. She is 40 years old and never voted before, but she says she had to vote this time, bush has to go.
This morning she told me she called the election board to make sure she was listed and she was. Then the woman at the board said they are so swamped with new registrations that they can barely handle them all.
I would have to believe that all these new people signing up are not repubs. From what I have heard personally in Ohio, it has been far more in support of Kerry than shrub.
Of course this is mainly the Cleveland area, but I have heard that this is happening in southern Ohio as well.

[dennis4868]

12. and that women you mentioned would not be.....

considered a "likely voter."

[LisaL]

14. There are a lot of people in Cleveland

that feel that way.

[annabanana]

10. there seems to be an uptick.....of BS poll #'s

How is this being coordinated?

[dubyaD40web]

13. you are correct!

just look at the Newsweek poll from a few days ago. they contacted more repugs than dems.

[snippy]

15. It is the result of the methodology Gallup uses to identify likely voters.

When Gallup includes "likely voters" as a subset of registered voters it bases the determination of likely voters on responses to a series of seven questions. The answers to those seven questions by each respondent result in a numerical score being assigned to that respondent. All respondents then are ranked by this score from most likely to vote to least likely to vote.

Gallop then estimates the probable turnout percentage for the population being sampled (in this case registered voters in Ohio). That estimated turnout percentage then is applied to the ranking of registered voters and used to determine a cutoff point for likely voters. So if turnout was estimated to be 53% then the 53% of respondents with the highest likely voter score are included in the results of the poll of likely voters and the 47% of respondents with lower scores are not. Since this poll was taken shortly after the republican convention, more republicans probably had a higher likely turnout score.

This poll and the Gallup methodology illustrates the importance of turnout and the fact that no pollster knows how to identify a likely voter. If turnout is high and includes many first time voters any poll that is accurate will owe much of its accuracy to luck.