Gallup over sampling Republicans too???( their internal numbers)

[sonicx]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000642.php

-snip-

And wait--there's more! The Gallup poll's internals also show that Kerry continues to lead among independents (49-46) and that both parties' partisans are equally polarized for their respective candidates (90-7). Note that these findings directly contradict the results of the recent Newsweek poll, which showed Bush doing much better among Republican partisans than Kerry was doing among Democratic partisans. Note also that, given the equal polarization of partisans and Kerry's lead among independents, the only possible reason Bush has any lead at all among Gallup's RVs must be because their sample has a GOP advantage on party ID (my guess is 5 points) that is inconsistent with almost all other polling data from this campaign season (see my recent post on the Newsweek poll for more discussion of this issue).

Indeed, if equal polarization of partisans continues and Kerry carries a 3 point lead on independents into the election, he'll win fairly easily, since the Democratic proportion of voters in presidential elections is always higher, not lower, than the Republican proportion. In 2000, after all, Bush carried independents by 2 points and received stronger support from his partisans than Gore did from his--but still lost the popular vote by half a point.

-snip-

When are these moron polling companies going to learn that dems have a bigger turnout that pukes??? This is the THIRD poll that did this crap!!!

#@%@#@ :mad:

[sonicx]

1. kick

[aquart]

2. kick

[sonicx]

3. kick

[DemMother]

4. This is why we need to look at the numbers behind the final polling

results--and nobody does that better than Donkey Rising. A few days ago Ruy T. explained the complicated and inconsistent way polling companies determine likely voters--and noted it varies from group to group and sometimes from poll to poll.
Thanks for posting this.