PPP Georgia Poll: McCain 50, Obama 48...Chambliss up 2

[MadBadger]

Barack Obama still has a decent chance of pulling off the upset in Georgia. He's leading 52-47 among voters who have already cast their ballots, which accounts for 57% of those surveyed. John McCain is up 54-43 with those planning to vote tomorrow.

The demographics of early voters and of those who are election day voters are quite different. 35% of early voters were black, 56% were women, and when it comes to party identification 46% describe themselves as Democrats while 40% are Republicans.

For likely voters who have not yet gone to the polls just 24% are black, 42% are Republicans compared to 38% who are Democrats, and a slight majority are men.

Obama probably needs to crack 30% of the white vote to take Georgia and right now he is falling just short, trailing McCain 70-28 within that demographic. Obama's solid lead with young voters is being offset by McCain's overwhelming lead with voters over 65.

In the state's US Senate race a runoff still seems like the most likely outcome with Saxby Chambliss receiving 48% to Jim Martin's 46%. Libertarian Allen Buckley is the guy who could cause the campaign to continue another month, receiving 4% of the vote. Chambliss would have to win over the late deciders overwhelmingly to get a majority tomorrow.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/georgia-results.html

[DeepBlueDem]

1. Thats the poll i was anticipating today. Just like i expected

[onehandle]

2. Here's hoping. nt

[Schulzz]

3. How big is the chance that Obama takes 30% of the white vote?

But I think McCain by 2-3 is still realistic.

[MadBadger]

5. They have him getting 28% of the white vote here, so its gotta be a decent chance

[thewiseguy]

7. Obama should be able to crack 30

He cracked that number even in West Virginia

[thesubstanceofdreams]

4. I hope for a runoff in the senate race

Republicans will be demoralized after losing the WH, I like Martin's chances in December.
I'm afraid Obama will come up just a little short. Still, the fact that he made so many southern states competitive is nothing short of amazing.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. McCain up just two points in GA is less interesting to TV Media than Obama up 8-15% in PA

Point: TV Media is made up of morons.

[Two Sheds]

10. Wrong. The media is made up of good little soldiers...

who also happen to be morons.

[Robbins]

8. Georgia

This IS actully good news.It shows Obama only trailing by 2.He could pull a upset here.And this
shows we could have Chambliss defeated.Imagne If It goes to a runoff,and you have Obama as president
Elect going down there to get support for Martin after a narror win for the runoff.

Shows Obama wasn't crazy to run ads In Georgia.

[leftist.]

9. I have very high hopes for GA - for both Obama and Martin.

If nothing else - even if it doesn't go our way - Barack succeeded in making GA competitve and that IMO is a win. GA is one of my "canary in a cage" states - polls close there at 7:00pm ET and when that state is too close to call immediately afterwards we'll know that it's a Barack blow-out.

IMO.

[Two Sheds]

11. Why can't McCain close the deal?

why can't anyone in the MSM notice this race within the race?

[thewiseguy]

12. By the way, Barr should take some votes from McCain

This poll is not indicating that

[MadBadger]

14. Barr gets the last two percent

[yourguide]

13. Is Barr on the Ballot in GA?

If so, I think we take GA.

[BootinUp]

17. yes. nt

[CitizenPatriot]

15. do the polls take into account the newly registered voters?

Obama made American history in Georgia this year with the most newly registered voters -- 400,000 newly registered voters. The math I've seen from people taking those numbers into account makes it even closer. well, actually, those numbers made it a win here. Of course, we have to get those folks to the polls, and with the long lines, it can be a challenge. Many people face losing their jobs, they don't have cars, etc.

[mohc]

16. Good news for the future in the crosstabs

McCain is winning the 65+ age group 61-37. A good portion of that age group is black, leaving the remaining white population nearly unanimous in their support of McCain. But those under 65 bring the average back to a 2 point race, with the heaviest Obama support among the youngest Georgians. As time passes more and more McCain supporters are going to be replaced with Obama supporters. Even if Obama does not pull off the upset this time, its looking good for future elections.