What should we be trusting more in this home stretch--state polls or national polls?

[Bicoastal]

Almost all national polls are getting wider (in some cases, MUCH wider), while a few state polls are tightening a bit.

On one hand, the electoral college is what it is, and only the states really matter in the final result--we've been hearing that for weeks. None of these tightening battleground polls have Obama losing, but one or two are close enough that we may squirm a little--despite our confidence in our ground game, Democratic enthusiasm, early voting, etc. Do early voters blow off pollsters once they've gotten it out of the way? I'm sure people in places like Ohio, Florida, and Virginia are sick and tired of the election at this point and want the whole thing to be over with.

BUT on the other hand, if McCain won on Tuesday, it wouldn't just be an upset--it'd be the UPSET OF THE CENTURY. Every single pollster would be out of a job, because every single one has put forth numbers that practically GUARANTEE a EV Count of above 300. In its long history, Gallup has goofed on one or two close elections when it came down to a 1 or 2% difference, but when they're showing one guy up by ELEVEN?! A close race seems practically impossible, to say nothing of a narrow, barely-winning victory.

[NYC_SKP]

1. State polls, IMO.

"" border="0"><br /><br /><br /><img src="" border="0"><br /><br /><br /><img src="" border="0"><br /><br /><br /><img src="" border="0"><br /><br /><br /><img src="" border="0"><br /><br /><br /><img src="" border="0"><br /><br /><br /><img src="" border="0"><br /><br /><br /><img src=""

[elleng]

2. State polls.

And, if mcC wins, fergit pollsters; its revolution.