Will Obama win North Carolina?

[Drunken Irishman]

Simple question, I'm going to do this for every swing state.

[babylonsister]

1. Oh my, you are hopeless. Hahahaha!

You are hooked! Enjoy politics in your life; it's nice for me to see a younger person be so involved, because I wasn't at your age. Very cool, and thanks for your passion, I think! :D

[Historic NY]

2. Drinking again eh? Your wearing me out with the polls.

[babylonsister]

5. Huh? A few beers, but I haven't done a poll in months! nt

[Historic NY]

11. I'm looking forward to some major cocktails on tuesday.

[Quixote1818]

3. The early voting numbers look very encouraging. nt

[Thrill]

4. I will say it again. The Register and Vote the same day has already killed McCain here in NC

Watch........

[knowledgeispwr]

8. One-stop registration and voting is a good practice

I'm proud that my state has that as an option. I agree that it'll be an important factor in Obama's victory here.

[Dr. Death]

6. Yes we will.

NC is going blue. I've been saying it for months. If you were here on the ground, you'd feel it too.

[Fovezer]

7. Yes, hopefully.

[ccharles000]

9. Yes but it will be close

[Thrill]

10. Read this about NC. This is why I'm confident

Early N.C. voting - a revealing number

Are Barack Obama's voter registration efforts resulting in actual votes?

Skeptics of Obama's ground game have noted that, historically, newly registered voters often don't make it to the voting booth. And while early voting records have been set around the country, the numbers haven't revealed how many of those voters are enthusiastic - but previously registered - voters.

But with early N.C. voting completed Saturday, 466,000 of 869,000 new voters (people who registered to vote since Jan 1, 2008) have cast ballots. That's a startling new voter turnout rate of 54 percent, with Election Day yet to come. Previously registered N.C. voters are turning out at a 40 percent rate.

The party breakdown of the new voters: Democrats 53 percent, Republicans 21 percent, Unaffiliated 25 percent. Unlike older voters who sometimes change party with their votes, if not their party registration, these new voters will likely vote whichever party they declared when they registered this year.

Republican officials rightly note that their vaunted get-out-the-vote efforts are geared toward Election Day. They'll need a surge Tuesday to overcome what seems like an early voting deficit.

The overall N.C. early voting numbers:

More than 2.5 million voters participated in early voting this year, more than doubling the previous high of 1.1 million in 2004.

Party breakdown (corrected - thanks to alert reader): Democrats 51.5 percent, Republicans, 30.1 percent and Unaffiliateds, 18.4 percent. (For perspective, here's the 2004 breakdown: D - 48.6 percent, R-37.4 percent, U - 14.1 percent.)

Men and women voted at about the same rate as 2004, with women casting 56.3 percent of early ballots and men 42.9 percent.

Blacks made up 26 percent of early voters, with whites at just below 70 percent.

Many thanks to the Observer's Ted Mellnik for sifting the state data to provide these numbers.

http://obsprimary.blogspot.com/2008/11/early-nc-voting-revealing-number.html

[grantcart]

12. Obama is starting the day with 500,000 vote lead

any little stumble or hick up and McCain loses.


Its very very hard to make up that kind of number in NC - impossible.


I cannot see him losing.

[babylonsister]

14. And did you see the NAACP spokesman going to bat for NC?

On Hardball. He wants paper ballots available if machines broke down or people couldn't vote. VERY cool! :thumbsup:

[grantcart]

15. I believe that he was arguing about Virginia not North Carolina

[mwooldri]

19. Paper ballots are available when machines break down.

2/3rd of counties are on optical scan: paper by default.
1/3rd are on DREs with paper audit. Plus paper backup is required.

That's NC. I wish they didn't have DREs as an option but they do and so be it. But they do have paper backups on hand, spare machines too. The strange thing about it is that I did hear a rumour of vote-flipping on a DRE machine in NC - from McSame to Obama... (Obama's listed first) I think I read it here but I cant substantiate it though.

[pettypace]

13. No

North Carolina is a conservative state, red as the day is long.

[grantcart]

16. Go back and look at the early voting

On Tuesday Morning Obama starts with 500,000 votes ahead of McCain because of 2 million early voting.

McCain will have to get over 70% of Tuesday vote to catch up.


The polls have them tied but Obama's GOTV effort is much better.

[MadBadger]

20. PPP Has Obama only up 250,000 in the early voting

[FVZA_Colonel]

22. It's still an impressive deficit to work against.

[endthewar]

24. So that would put Obama up by 12 points.

Exactly how big of a landslide do you need to see before you believe that Obama stands a chance in North Carolina?

[MadBadger]

25. They have Obama up 10 points in early voting, but up 1 point overall

[FVZA_Colonel]

26. Is there any chance that, despite early voting, they are undervaluing the black turnout?

[endthewar]

33. See post #25

Black turnout has been especially high for early voting in North Carolina and Georgia, especially compared to many of the likely voter models being used by pollsters.

[endthewar]

28. All pollsters are just guessing at what the turnout will look like

when they determine the likely voters. Here's a good website with the early voting info across the USA: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

In 2004, 3.55 million people voted in North Carolina. So far in early voting, 2.57 million people have voted in North Carolina. The PPP poll has 21% blacks in their likely voter model, but 27.5% of early voters are blacks. The PPP poll has 51% women voters, but 56% of early voters in NC are female. Even more amazing, Democrat ballots outnumber Republican ballots by 21 percentage points.

Barring a John Edwards type scandal in which Obama has to withdraw from the election, I think he going to win North Carolina.

[MadBadger]

29. Black voters are more likely to vote early because of their enthusiam

On Election day, black voters will certainly be less of the voter make up than early voting. Same can be said for Women because they are more likely to be democratic, and Democrats are more enthusiastic for this election.

I think we could win here or we could lose.

At this point I'm picking Obama to lose, but its a 1 point Tossup either way IMO

[endthewar]

30. "Black voters are more likely to vote early because..."

:eyes:

Link please. :hi:

I think you'd make up stuff no matter how little evidence you have to support your claim.

[MadBadger]

31. Why do you have to be a Complete fucking ass hole?

All you have to do is ask for a link

Jeez

[endthewar]

32. If you're gonna do the time, you might as well do the crime:

:rofl:

:rofl:

[MadBadger]

34. Here ya go Douchebag

More than 210,000 blacks who are registered as Democrats have cast early ballots in the Tar Heel State - compared with roughly 174,000 registered Republicans overall. Four years ago, the number of GOP early and absentee voters was more than double that of black Democrats.

"It's a sign about how energized African-Americans are about this election," says David Bositis, who tracks black voting trends at the Washington-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/politics/main4542354.shtml?source=RSSattr=HOME_4542354

[endthewar]

39. "On Election day, black voters will certainly be less of the voter make up than early voting."

Can't find that in your link. Try again idiot! :rofl:

[OmahaBlueDog]

21. North Carolina is a changing state

I'll agree Obama won't get much love in Yancey County, but the Raleigh and Charlotte areas have received many new residents from other states.

[Blondiegrrl]

17. Yes. It will be close, but the early voting numbers lead me to believe

Obama's got this one.

[Darian]

18. Yes

I think he'll win it by about 2 points.

[musicblind]

40. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[MadBadger]

23. Its gonna come down to the weather there, and I think Obama will lose it by less than 1 %

[FVZA_Colonel]

35. Why exactly?

Just the weather, or something else?

[Life Long Dem]

27. Obama seems to still be winning states from McSame or red states.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. I'll be stubborn and say no

I bet on McCain to win North Carolina at 50/50 odds. That's the one wager I expect to lose. It is now trading about 68/32 likelihood for Obama.

According to my Excel model, the tipping point should be a 5.5% national margin for Obama. Above that level and he wins North Carolina, below it and he loses. However, the same day register and vote variable could make that 5.5% a bit too high. It is a factor I admittedly underestimated a month ago.

I'm very certain the estimated leads for Obama in North Carolina coming out of early voting are too high. Someone on MyDD had it at 140,000 heading into Saturday. I had it higher, about 160,000. No doubt it jumped on Saturday, perhaps to about 200,000, but some of the estimates are hilarious, like the 500,000 that was touted here by one of the cheerleaders.

The returns will be interesting. No doubt Obama will start well ahead due to early votes but the margin will narrow throughout the night. It might be like 2006, a very narrow win for Obama. In a pro-Democratic year like 2006 we won the razor decisions, like Montana senate, Missouri senate and Virginia senate.

[woolldog]

37. I'm pessimistic about his chances there.

[musicblind]

38. Yes. He will. Why? Because he has a better GOTV effort and because

the democrats in NC are motivated.

You can mark my words, and I will stake my DU reputation on this... We WILL win NC.

I remember back at the beginning of this election cycle I made a thread PROMISING that we would win NC. And a few DUers bashed me and told me how I didn't have enough experience with elections because I was younger. They told me how I didn't understand NC like they did even though they didn't LIVE in NC and I did ... They then tried to claim they lived in Georgia and that it was the same thing.

I even got a snarky, unsolicited, PM telling me how NC wasn't even IN PLAY.

Well guess what... When we win NC I plan to RUUUUUB that shit all in their faces. My state has a lot of new liberals, and it is changing as people move into our state. Not to mention we have 21 percent AA population and a zillion colleges. I could smell the Obama victory the day the primaries were over.

... and guess what? I was right. Change is coming to North Carolina.

[MrSlayer]

41. I think it will be very, very close but will stay red.

If Barack takes North Carolina we're looking at a landslide victory.

[Schulzz]

42. My Prediction: Obama by 0,5%

;-)