More poll analysis from Princeton worth reading (it's reassuring!)

[lolamio]

An under-the-radar runaway for Obama?
November 2nd, 2008, 10:00am by Sam Wang


By current standards the McCain campaign is not spending that much on polling - only $1.1 million since July. During that time the Obama campaign spent almost four times as much. Maybe that’s why on Friday, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis felt able to write a memo containing plainly absurd statements such as “Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days.” Obama is up by 11% in Iowa. With little enough data, Davis could convince himself of all kinds of swings.

He needs to. What’s amazing about the Presidential race is how little change has occurred in October in national polls and in meta-analysis of the Electoral College. By these measures, the campaign ended after the first debate. However, there are still a few surprises lurking in the data. Battleground states have presented a steep hill for McCain to climb. In the last four weeks, the hill has grown into a mountain.

More at the link:

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/02/a-hidden-obama-runaway/#more-2136