PA TRACKING POLL: Obama 52, McCrypt 44

[jefferson_dem]

http://www.mcall.com/

Eight points is nice but the margin has definitely narrowed in this poll the past couple days.

I would feel much better if PA had early voting.

[BeyondGeography]

1. Watching Axelrod on KO last night, I don't think they're planning on going back to PA

He was very confident of the outcome.

[sarahdemva]

2. over confident?

[BeyondGeography]

8. I doubt it; Plouffe spelled out the reality the other day and it's pretty daunting (for them)

...in order to capture the battleground state, Senator John McCain would have to capture 95 percent of Pennsylvania Republicans’ vote, 15 percent of the Democrats, and 60 percent of the independents. Mr. Plouffe said the Democrats had a significant voter registration advantage there as well as a superior ground operation.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/plouffe-handicaps-mccains-chances-in-pennsylvania/

[alcibiades_mystery]

37. Who has been smarter? Axelrod, Plouffe, Obaama...or people like you?

I know who I trust, and it ain't the constantly WRONG worry assholes.

[qanda]

4. I think they should go there instead of doing a pre-victory tour

I don't like the feeling I have right now. McCain/Palin have been camping out in PA. Obama should plan one last stop in the state.

[Kdillard]

7. What previctory tour?? I see him spending his time wisely

and if there really were cause for concern he would be camped out there. I believe the Obama camp knows what they are doing.

[qanda]

13. Ah, he was in Iowa yesterday

Talking about how this is where it all began. I'm sorry, I just don't see Iowa as being more important than Pennsylvania. jmho

[jefferson_dem]

16. That Iowa stop was basically a layover on his way back home for trick-or-treating.

:).

[Kdillard]

19. Iowa has been very good to Obama and has allowed him

to have several more avenues for victory that Kerry didn't have. The election is winding down I don't see why he shouldn't say thanks guys. I don't get why people think Obama hasn't spent enough time in PA he and Joe Biden have made several stops there and have an amazing ground game going. Again if the Obama campaign felt there was a need for concern they would be there.

[qanda]

22. I'll take your word for it.

I'll do my part to get folks out to vote and leave the campaign stops to the Obama team. :-)

[sarahdemva]

9. kerry won PA by 2.7%

obama should go back

[Kdillard]

14. Obama is not Kerry and Kerry is not Obama. Obama is looking strong in

places that Kerry couldn't dream of and has much stronger base support. I would be concerned if Obama felt the need to spend time in PA right now. He is going to the right places right now where the polling hasn't been as strong for him as it has been in PA. It is the right thing to do imo. Again I believe if Obama's own internal polls showed there was a problem he would be working in PA even more than he already has been.

[FrenchieCat]

18. They were just there last week.

[qanda]

21. I know. My sister wanted to go see him when he stopped in Pittsburgh

But the lines started forming at 7 in the morning, by the time she got off from work around 4, there was no way for her to get in. This is my sister who was a Republican and now sends out daily emails about supporting Obama. I just don't want Obama to take anything for granted.

[book_worm]

27. Pre-victory tour is your wording! They are in states like CO, MO, IN, VA, NM, IA, NC, OH

all states that went to Bush in 2004, AND MOST ARE RED STATES while McCain is putting all his eggs into PA. Why don't you check facts before you post? and also for your information both Obama and Biden were in PA just a couple of days ago. There are more than one battle ground state you know.

[qanda]

41. I was going to respond in kind but said forget it

My hope and efforts are for an Obama win. I assume we share the same goal.

[Schulzz]

11. I said it when he was up 15 points: he will not win PA by double-digits.

No presidential candidate has in a very long time. But he would return there if his internals showed him in trouble...

[dennis4868]

3. what were the numbers 3 days ago?

Has the lead gone down alot?

[Hope And Change]

6. Google is your friend.

http://www.google.com/

[jefferson_dem]

10. It's been hovering between +10-12 for a couple weeks.

It was +10 yesterday.

[godai]

20. Here's some info...

This link shows the Morning Call poll, which was a little buried (check lower right corner):
http://www.mcall.com/news/elections/all-election-president,0,155695.htmlpage

Few details about the poll except that it's a Muhlenberg College poll...I'm supposed to fear a McCain victory based on these trends?




http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/

[bullimiami]

5. didnt i hear mccains guy saying their 'internal polls' have it within the moe?

[jefferson_dem]

12. I hear many McCain guys lie repeatedly every day.

"Internal poll" numbers = PR spin.

[godai]

24. If this were true, they'd be showing the data.

It's all smoke and mirrors at this point. They have to say they'll win PA or else there is no path to 270 EV.

[jefferson_dem]

15. Rasmussen has it at 51-47.

FWIW.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

[HughMoran]

17. Yep, not surprising

Rasmussen is always a little on the low-side, I think we'll win but maybe not by double-digits.

[sarahdemva]

28. one bad sign. gore won PA by 4.2%

if obama gets less than that he is in trouble nationally. i hope we havent ignored PA

[HughMoran]

31. The RCP average including these 2 polls is 8.5%

Don't get all caught up in one poll or try to associate PA to the rest of the nation - that's just not logical.

[sarahdemva]

36. cant agree. PA is very important nationally

kerry won by 2.5 and lost
gore won by 4.2 and it was basically a tie
clinton won by 10% and clinton blew out dole

for obama to win nationally he has to win PA by more than 4.2% and to win big he has to win PA by 6.5+

[HughMoran]

40. Yep, targeting a state has no effect on polls

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Go back and look - Kerry was expected to win no more than about 260 EV's at this time, Obama 360!

[WhollyHeretic]

43. What you are saying has absolutely no connection to reality

Obama's margin in PA has nothing to do with how he's doing nationwide.

[AlexinVA]

23. Rasmussen PA Poll has Obama down to 75% support among Dems

"Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey."

His last PA poll was just a few days ago. So, in those few days, Obama loses 11% of Dem support? Doesn't really make sense.

[AlinPA]

45. That Rev Wright ad is running non-stop in W PA. Might account for some of it.

[book_worm]

25. The main thing is that Obama has been between 52-54 percent in this poll for weeks

[SuperTrouper]

26. Here is what is going on in Pennsylvania

On Thursday Obama was ahead by 54%-41% reflecting up to Wednesday night. Remember that McCain and Palin had about 6 days with their racist rallies in Pennsylvania and still on Thursday and Friday Obama won them narrowly by an average of 49%-48.5% which brings the total to the average of 52-44%. We still have three good polling days for Obama and two narrow leads for Obama, so tomorrow one good polling day goes out for Obama and today's numbers go up into the tracking. Let's say Obama has a narrow lead Saturday, Sunday, and Monday he will still win Pennsylvania narrowly like Kerry did. I expect Obama to win Pennsylvania 52-48%.

[sarahdemva]

32. like kerry did? thats not good at all

i posted some historical numbers. kerry won pa by 2.5% and ost nationally

gore won by 4.2% and still lost, though thats disputed. if obama wins like kerry did in PA obama is in major trouble.

[HughMoran]

34. You don't know what you're talking about

Your analysis is meaningless.

[sarahdemva]

42. gore ignored tennessee and we know what happened

all i am saying is obama has to win PA by more than gore or kerry did.

[WhollyHeretic]

44. Margin in one state does not matter. By your "logic" Obama is going to do 12 times as well as Kerry

did nationally because he is leading Wisconsin by 12% when Kerry only took it by 1%.

[sarahdemva]

46. the best thing is to work hard and WIN!!

WE CAN DO IT!!

[jefferson_dem]

35. Oh my.

Please go visit the electoral map and enlighten yourself.

[alcibiades_mystery]

49. sarahGOPva is a sad little McCain puppy

Trying to stir shit. Idiots are best ignored.

[SuperTrouper]

38. But Kerry and Gore had little paths to 270..Obama has many paths

Remember the electorate is changing. We will win Pennsylvania.

[alcibiades_mystery]

47. Really? Was Kerry ahead on Virginia? Colorado?

Your grasp of history borders on the terminally stupid.

[nygrl224]

29. I agree

I think he should try to go one more time, but as long as the ground game is strong, I think it will be ok. Does he have any surrogates going there? He should send Hillary there maybe.

[SuperTrouper]

30. Bill, Hillary and Gore and perhaps one more visit by Obama to seal the deal

[jefferson_dem]

33. I would love to see Hillary barnstorming PA for Obama all day Monday.

He has Gov. Rendell out there in strong form. Also, Mayor Nutter of Philly and Sen. Casey.

[dennis4868]

39. I think Biden is going back tomorrow....

at least that is what I heard on the radio...

[Uzybone]

48. Not buying it

PA will be won by double digits.