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Trick or Treat (about the Zogby from Nate @ 538.com)

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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:21 PM
Original message
Trick or Treat (about the Zogby from Nate @ 538.com)
Edited on Fri Oct-31-08 10:33 PM by HughMoran
Trick or Treat
Do you spook easily?

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

Oh, and click here to send a message to John about his polling techniques.

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Arkana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thank God for Nate.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
2. Drugde did this same thing about a week ago. He was full of BS then
and I would imagine he's full of BS now.

This is his commentary - ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

Nascar voters? :eyes: Drudge is playing with us.
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FreeState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
3. Its Halloween - have beer and relax, Obama is going to be our next President ;) n/t
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
4. Note, I added a link for those who wish to contact Mr. Zogby
Tell him what you think of his polling techniques.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
5. Thanks, Hugh!!
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tpi10d Donating Member (291 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:44 PM
Response to Original message
6. My message to Zogby
quote:

Re: one day sample of daily tracking poll released on Drudge.

I think if you're going to release the one-day sample, it should be accompanied by a margin of error disclaimer.

Many people may not be aware of the limited sample size. Further diving into the subgroups of the one-day sample (nascar etc.) is even on more shaky ground re: margin of error...enough IMO that it probably isn't statistically significant.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Good job!
He really needs to be criticized for his attention whoring on Drudge.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 11:04 PM
Response to Original message
8. Also, no serious pollster should have their News page called "Whatz New"
He's clearly an attention whore.
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-31-08 11:16 PM
Response to Original message
9. Here's a problem I have w Zogby-WTF would he hire this guy?
Saving Ohio
Did a reporter with GOP ties suppress a story that could have cost Bush the White House?

By Bill Frogameni

Oct 6, 2005 | In April 2005, the Blade newspaper of Toledo, Ohio, began publishing a remarkable series of articles about a well-connected Republican donor, Tom Noe, chair of the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign for Lucas County, which encompasses Toledo. The Blade, which had won a Pulitzer Prize for reporting in 2004, discovered that Noe, a Toledo coin dealer, was investing $50 million for the state through the novel practice of coin speculation: buying and selling rare coins to turn a profit. Noe, the Blade revealed, could not account for $10 million to $13 million in the fund.

The paper also divulged that Noe had been placed under federal investigation for allegedly laundering money -- perhaps state money -- to the Bush campaign. The Blade's initial reports on Noe started a chain reaction of related scandals for Ohio's dominant Republicans. Recently, Gov. Bob Taft pleaded no contest to accepting several gifts from influence peddlers -- including Noe -- without reporting them, as law requires. Noe is currently the subject of 13 investigations.

In November 2004, Lucas County was among the most hotly contested areas in the most hotly contested state. Kerry won the county by 45,000 votes, but George W. Bush went on to win Ohio by less than 120,000 votes, which swung the election for him.

But Bush's reelection may have been made possible by a Blade reporter with close ties to the Republican Party who reportedly knew about Noe's potential campaign violations in early 2004 but suppressed the story.

-snip
http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/10/06/ohio/

Shoptalk: More Dread in Ohio

By Joe Strupp

Published: August 01, 2005

The Blade of Toledo, Ohio, is on top of the newspaper world, thanks to its "Coingate" reports (see feature, this issue). But while the paper is rightly thumping its chest with each new revelation, it's also coming under some scrutiny — not for what it has printed, but for what it may not have. Rumors swirl around a veteran Blade scribe, former political reporter Fritz Wenzel. Nothing at all is proven, but it's worth recalling the dangers — even if it's just in public perception — of jumping from political campaigning to political reporting and back again.

Wenzel, a longtime GOP campaign worker in Oregon, spent 10 years on the Blade politics beat before returning to the world of political consulting in May, virtually the day after he left the paper. One of the key contacts he made along the way was the man now at the center of the Coingate accusations, Tom Noe, a major Republican fund-raiser who attended the wedding of Wenzel's son, P.J., a state GOP employee. Noe's wife, Bernadette, even praised Wenzel during a GOP Lincoln Day Dinner this spring. "It was obvious that was a Republican, he never hid the fact," Dennis Lang, interim chair of the Lucas County Republican Central Committee, told me last month. "But his work stayed in neutral ground."

Not according to the Lucas County Democratic Party, which devoted a page on its Web site to blasting Wenzel for alleged inaccuracy and bias. Suspicions about partisan leanings were further fueled when Wenzel signed on as media strategist for Jean Schmidt, the GOP nominee for an open Cincinnati-area congressional seat that voters will fill in a special August election (she won a primary on June 14). Disclosure records show Wenzel received $30,000 from Schmidt's campaign on May 16, the day his last column for the paper appeared, and three days after he left the Blade. He got another $30,000 from those coffers a week later, according to records. Part of the money went to media buys.

Wenzel's career change also renewed rumors, so far unsubstantiated, that his ties to Noe and the GOP may help explain why he not only failed to uncover Coingate but also a related Noe scandal involving alleged illegal funneling of contributions to President Bush's 2004 campaign. Several Blade editors told me they'd heard rumors that Wenzel learned as early as January 2004 about a federal investigation into Noe's alleged illegal donations, none of which emerged in the press until this past spring.

-snip
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/magazine/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000991071


-snip

His son, P.J. Wenzel, was elected to the Lucas County GOP central committee while Bernadette Noe, wife of Tom Noe, was party chairman.

According to county board of election records, P.J. Wenzel was elected a precinct committeeman in the March 2, 2004, elections, but he was never sworn into the central committee and never served because he had moved to Columbus before Election Day.

P.J. Wenzel was on the payroll of the Ohio GOP in the spring of 2005.

According to Ohio Republican Party records, he was paid $5,385 in April and May, 2005, by the state party. He also received $30,549 from the Republican National Committee between April and November, 2004, while his father was covering the presidential race for The Blade.

-snip
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060528/NEWS08/605280346
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Glenda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-01-08 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
10. kick
:kick:
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