The Response to the "Undecideds will break for McCain" meme ...

[JoePhilly]

John McCain has been around forever. He's a very well known figure in US politics.

He's probably done more TV interviews than almost any other Senator.

He would have been the EASY pick in this election. He is very well known and has the long touted MAVERICK reputation.

And yet ... the remaining undecideds have not embraced him. Why not? What else do they need to know about McCain to vote FOR HIM?

The reality .... John MCCAIN has been unable to SEAL THE DEAL with these undecided voters!

Given that McCain is "well known quantity" ... even considering Obama requires EFFORT.

Clearly Obama is a very serious choice in the minds of the undecideds ...

So ... it follows that the undecideds will either vote FOR Obama, or AGAINST Obama. The undecideds are NOT voting FOR McCain ... or they would not be "undecided".

McCain, the known quantity, has not sealed the deal.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

1. Obama is polling over 50% in enough states to win

Even if each and every single undecided breaks for McPalin we still win.
If most undecideds break for Obama it'll be a landslide of epic proportions.

[SoonerPride]

2. ie "why can't he close the deal" ??

:rofl:

that line from the primaries now just slays me.











I'm my own private comedian.

[JoePhilly]

4. Exactly why I used it!!!

[JoePhilly]

3. Agree ... in the polls, I watch the number 46% ....

In the last 2 months, Obama is almost never below that number ... McCain is almost never above that number.

And in the last month, those "support levels" have moved to 47% (floor) for Obama and 45% (ceiling) for McCain.

But it drives me NUTS that the TV folks keep suggesting that McCain will get a huge PLUS from undecided voters.

Its bull.

[yellowcanine]

5. Well, undecideds rarely break all one way in an open race without an incumbent.

They will sometimes break against an incumbent so in the current case one would think that means they are more likely to break against McCain, as he is more associated with Bush than Obama is.

[EC]

6. I think that the original 4% undecideds (before the 30 minute Obamathon)

are not voting, period...but the additional 2% after the Obamathon were going to vote for mccain and are now questioning their original decision and will break for Obama...so in my mind that is 2% more for Obama and 0% for mccain...

[The_Counsel]

7. Here's Something Else On Those "Undecided" Voters....

First of all, for the most part, those voters aren't "undecided," they're "uncommitted." Huge difference.

I would think it's something close to impossible to be undecided at this late stage. If you are, you just haven't been paying attention. What more do these people need? There's nothing else McCain OR Obama can add to the conversation.

Now, being uncommitted is an entirely different story. Those voters know good and well who they're planning to vote for, but just aren't saying. No biggie. That's their right. Just don't pretend you're undecided. It's just plain dishonest. BUT, to be fair, there may not have been an option in the polling questionnaire that speaks to being "uncommitted" or "rather not say," just "undecided."

Now HERE'S the thing that has me ready to pee my pants laughing...

The whole "undecideds will break for McCain" thing doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me for the same reasons the O/P gave. But I did a little experiment with that theory based on the polling info on electoral-vote.com today. I took all the so-called "undecided" numbers in each state and applied a scenario in which they all broke 3:1 for McCain...

...and Obama STILL comes out the winner, 311-212.

This while losing FL, MO & IN.

And with NC coming out as an exact tie.

Obama still whoops that ass by 99 electoral votes.

Or more.

Obama could be magnanimous and GIVE McCain Ohio and he'd still win.

This thing is over, folks. ;)

I don't know how to post a map with my own EC scenario, but if someone does and wants to post one with the the following results be my guest:

EXACT TIE: NC (1 state)
McCAIN CARRIES: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV & WY (24 states)
OBAMA CARRIES: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA & WI (25 states + DC)

[JoePhilly]

8. Agree .... except the NC part ... I live there now ... and we WILL deliver!!

[The_Counsel]

9. Oh, I Agree. I Think Obama Will Carry FL, MO & GA Too...

I was just applying that silly "undecideds will break for McCain" scenario.

I actually think they will probably break more along the lines of 5:4 McCain; but that doesn't stop him from getting a foot in his ass in the Electoral College. :evilgrin:

We shall see.

GOAV! :toast: