So, Obama takes every state Kerry Did...

[snooper2]

Takes in addition Virginia ( latest poll 53-44 ) and Iowa ( 53-39 ) both CNN has Obama solid blue...


and it's over...272 Obama to 266 McCain...

I've been trying to find a way McCain can get to 270 and it just doesn't work....

Bounce between 2008 estimate and 2004 result...mind blowing...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Maybe Sarah can take McSame on a hunting trip when this is all said and done :rofl:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. And Ohio, and Florida, and NV, and CO...

and NC, and GA, and AZ...

[SteppingRazor]

2. CO and NM are practically done deals too, regardless of the tied NM poll this morning.

Yeah, as long as the GOTV effort goes well, this things a done deal, and has been for some time now.

[snooper2]

3. And before folks bash us for getting over confident..

Just wanted to have a discussion about the numbers...


How in the fuck can anyone in the McCain bus think he can get to 270?

[SteppingRazor]

4. The fact that they're gambling on PA, a state where Obama leads by at least 9...

is pretty telling.

[soleft]

5. If you go on Electoral Vote Dot Com

And you take away all the states Obama is weak or barely ahead, plus the tied states, McCain would win 274 to 264.

So Obama needs to hold onto all the states where he's over 10%, and hold onto 11 electoral votes in the states where he's polling under 10%.

In order for McCain to win, he has to take all the states where Obama is ahead by less than than 10.

[snooper2]

7. Thanks..will play with that map now...

:hi:

[VWolf]

8. Another way to look at it:

Of the weak Obama states, Virginia & Colorado are the strongest, each showing an 8% lead. Those two alone would put Obama over the top.

Let's assume they don't try to steal any of the strong Obama states. This means they'll have to steal at least 8% of the vote in both VA & CO, plus an additional 3% to 7% in a bunch of other states, to have any chance. That's a tall order, even by Repuke standards.

[Stagecoach]

6. I was running various models on CNN's calculator

Last night and going by the state by state polls, even if a person took the states "leaning" toward Obama and gave them to McCain (North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, Missouri, etc.), the most I've come up with for McCain is 252. I don't see where he's going to get the other 18. All he can hope for is he pulls a rabbit out of the hat and takes Pennsylvania or takes the combination of CO/VA/IA....but I just don't see it happening.