If early voting is any indication, the "youth vote" may screw us yet again...

[The Night Owl]

From CNN...

Commentary: Young voters, this is your chance
By Campbell Brown

(CNN) -- In this election, young voters have been the toast of the town.

As pundits have told us, they will be turning out this year in record numbers. And if Democratic candidate Barack Obama wins, it will be the youth of this country who gave him the presidency.

Or it won't -- because early evidence suggests that young voters just might do what they always do: blow it off, stay home, space out and get a better offer.

...

It's not just Florida. Gallup's daily tracking poll shows a similar trend nationally. Based on interviews they've conducted over the last few weeks, Gallup concluded there is scant evidence to suggest we are going to see a real game-changing youth turnout.

...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/30/campbell.brown.youth/?iref=mpstoryview#cnnSTCText

Youthful Democrats,

Do not fail us again.

[ShortnFiery]

1. I'm working with the "YUTS" don't be disrespecting our youth, they will be there Tuesday.

:thumbsup:

[skooooo]

8. They won't get disrespected if they show up!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

47. young people are more likely not to vote if they think it's in the bag

that's why we need to get this young vote out!

[EFerrari]

61. Actually, they did show up last time and they still got blamed

by talking heads who didn't know what they were talking about -- which seems to happen a lot!

[formernaderite]

44. this is bs

in addition...Obama is ahead in every poll. Give me a break...this election will be a blow out

[EFerrari]

59. That's right! And don't go spreading SPIN about their turn out.

They worked their heads off for Kerry, were harrassed at their precincts and they did turn out. IIRC, Kerry got more votes from young people than anyone ever has. The media spread the rumor they didn't, just like they said Bush got more Latino votes (he didn't) and that values voters elected him (they didn't)

Watchit, gramps! :)

[wildflower]

2. Could this be because of the "flake factor" increasing recently?

I saw a post here about how it was up to 50%, and I saw on 538.com that it goes up when campaigns get complacent.

[WallStreetNobody]

3. This is one of the only things that worries me about our chances of winning

[Alter Ego]

4. She was pimping this yesterday. She based it off of an Orlando Sentinel article

with really misleading reporting, considering Florida is demographically a lot older than many states.

And with an EARLY voting rate for young folks at about 15%, that's a vast improvement over last election cycle.

[kysrsoze]

39. Campbell Brown is an ass. She talks no B.S., but she is so clearly slanted against Obama.

Her stories are crap too. She's the Nancy Grace of political reporting.

[tekisui]

5. I am on a college campus in NC.

The enrollment is about 3500. The polling place, for Early voting, here on campus has had 2850 votes so far. Today and tomorrow are the last Early Vote days.

Granted, anyone in this country could have voted there, but there are much more convenient polling places for those not on campus.

[melody]

6. They're clinging to any tiny hope lol

Young people always wait to vote. Always.

[CoffeeCat]

7. Young people procrastinate...

They're busy. They're often working, going to school and have very active social lives.

They tend to put things off at the last moment.

I suspect that the majority of young people vote the day of the election.

[rucky]

12. Plus, I think many of them look forward to the Election Day experience.

When I was on the Early Voting canvass, alot of people told me that they prefer to vote on the election day. They get to see the neighbors, and chat while they're in line, etc.

[Essene]

17. yes, and i think the GOTV message should push this idea

it oughta be FUN. historic.

we need to put aside all the whine about long lines. get the energy up and make it an exciting idea to be a part.

[Alter Ego]

21. That's me too. I'm 23, and didn't early vote last time either.

Went home and voted Kerry, even though I had classes the next day.

So it's probable that since polling places are most likely going to be on college campuses, that college kids don't really feel the need until election day.

[DevonRex]

30. My sons both voted early in person rather than on mail-in ballots

because they wanted the experience of voting at the polls. And you're right, some young folks DO want the experience of voting on election day. I have found that is true especially for recent college graduates who have never had the opportunity to vote at the polls.

My sons were both really excited about voting in person this year. It was the first time they didn't have to use an absentee ballot. I was so proud, just seeing their enthusiasm. It was almost like a first communion experience for them - and for my husband and me, just watching. Made me get all teary.

[emulatorloo]

36. I heard a lot of that too == many people want to vote on Nov 4th for the experience

EOM

[bmartello]

69. A lot of people I've talked to through phone banking...

really like the november 4 experience. I get that. I just like that we can do something about problems before the fact if people vote early! It's really important to do it early so we make sure we don't have tampering like we have the last two times around.

[chiefofclarinet]

52. Young people also often go to out of state or out of district colleges

As a college student, I still am in state, but I'm in another Congressional district. So, I got my absentee ballot and filled it out. Most college students that care get absentee ballots or reregister and vote. The ones that don't care are like the rest of the populace that don't care: uninformed people that decide to vote and who to vote for last minute.

[OKNancy]

9. Don't you think that first-time voters would want to wait

until election day to vote? Seems to me that many of them want "the experience" of voting on election day.

[elocs]

10. Young voters need to prove that their support for Obama is more than just words.

They do that by actually casting ballots for Obama.

In 2004 the 18-24 age voter turnout was 47% (up 11% from 2000) while the 25-34 turnout was 56%. The age groups from 55-74 voted at a 73% rate in 2004 and if the youth vote can even come close to that the results would be outstanding and impressive.

So young people, the ball and ballot is in your court.

[high density]

11. Again?

The youth vote turned out in record numbers in 2004. Everybody else did too, but I fail to see how that's the youth vote's fault.

[jbnow]

70. They did turn out in 2004. Not youth's fault but our country

needs them to REALLY turn out on this one...be better than the seniors. Youth break so strongly for Obama that they could make all the difference in the world...and the world needs them to.
To use the young legs and idealistic hearts and desire for a better future...to lead the way at this turning point.
The volunteers have many young people, so well represented...may they be an example to the rest of us...of all ages.
Id rather see young adults being heroes in the voting booth than the battlefield.

[Barack_America]

13. The party's not until Tuesday.

The kids are looking for a party. This is likely their first vote and they want to experience it with their friends. They have time for the lines. They're looking for the communal atmosphere.

[Jennicut]

14. Guys, don't put down the college kids. They vote mostly absentee.

As I did as well in 1996 for Clinton when I was in college. Those votes are not counted until election day. They came out in the primaries so why would they not vote now?

[TheZug]

15. That would make me sick, if true.

[Essene]

16. the youth vote didnt show up EARLY in florida. PANIC PANIC PANIC

good grief.

it's fine to push the GOTV message... but let's keep a positive message, folks.

[AyanEva]

18. Don't worry

We're waiting until Election Day.

Even if my state had early voting, I wouldn't do it. I'm determined to vote ON November 4th, so much so that I'm camping outside my polling location at 4.00 or 5.00 in the morning (maybe even 3.00) so I can be one of the first people to vote and still have time to get to my campaign staging location and train canvassers for the day. I've camped out in worse weather and for longer to see my favorite band perform, so sitting in the cold and dark for three or four hours isn't a big deal. My neighborhood's pretty safe.

There's a FO in my local campaign office who lives in Philadelphia and she's not too much older than I am. She refused to vote by absentee like the other FOs because she's of a similar mindset: Vote on the 4th and press that button in person. From what I've seen, most everyone else in my age group is thinking the same way.

[livetohike]

23. Welcome to DU!

:hi: I like voting in person, too and this will be my 10th presidential election :-). I'm working at the polls that day, so I will be one of the first to vote.

[AyanEva]

43. :)

Good luck at the polls! Hope everything goes well and there aren't any problems. I'll be doing what I can to make sure Philadelphia delivers PA for Obama.

[DevonRex]

19. My two sons already voted in Colorado.

[janx]

20. Not from what I've seen!

I teach 106 undergraduates this semester, most of whom will be casting their votes for a president for the very first time. They are fired up! There was a rock band playing outside yesterday as a part of the Vote for Change effort.

And this is a medium sized university.

The state university is much more fired up!

[EFerrari]

64. Excellent! I'm jealous --would love to see that.

:)

[janx]

76. It's a beautiful thing!

I don't talk politics in the classroom (except when I use examples to show flawed logic, and I use those generically), but I reminded my students very strongly yesterday to VOTE. I have a pretty good sense of who is voting for whom simply because I'm familiar with each one of my students. (Well--the Obama buttons and shirts are pretty good indicators, too. ;-) )Furthermore, I'm aware of their capabilities of reasoning and critical thought, since that involves what I teach. I'm guessing that 15 or fewer out of the students in my classes aren't voting for Obama, and I'm also guessing that no more than 20 of them won't show up to vote.

A few of them told me that they couldn't be in class on Tuesday because they needed to get to their home towns to do so.

:party:

So this tabloid fluff piece from one of the usual suspects is just that.

[RoadRage]

22. Obama hasn't sent them a text message yet.

Seriously. 11/04 at 5am... a big old text message is going to go out to EVERY CELL PHONE NUMBER they have... reminding them.. you, dude, put down the x-box controller... skip lunch between classes... call your boss at Starbucks and let 'em know you'll be a few minutes late because YOU GOTTA VOTE!

College kids aren't watching CNN 24/7.. most of them probably don't even know about early voting. They're just gonna show up on 11/04 after Obi-One texts them and reminds them to vote.

And, in a related story... McCain is getting his telegrams ready to go to his supporters as well.. they should arrive sometime between Monday - Thursday of next week. About 1/2 should arrive in time. :)

[Bluenorthwest]

24. First off, as a former youth

I find the over all tone of the article rather bigoted. When I was young, I was a hyper achiever, so perhaps my view is skewed. I don't see young people as lazy or spaced out.
And this election is very different. I've never seen so many young volunteers. From what I see, the youth may be too busy volunteering to vote early. It is polite to let others go first, after all!
But I am certain Obama's voters, young and old alike, will get those ballots marked.

[Bread and Circus]

25. But what if the D youth vote was up and the R youth vote was down...

What if young voters are just waiting till school is out for the weekend to go vote...

What if young voters are just procrastinating till Tuesday...

What if young voters are just waiting to see if the lines will die down...

What if Florida is just kind of old...

What if all early voting is up so that young people as a proportion of the overall vote is about the same.

What if they just don't have a good way of getting hold of a lot of young voters after they vote...

What if Obama's supporters is a good mix up and down the age scale and not just the "college vote" as the ever-so-smart pundits try to portray it to be...

There's a lot of things to consider.

I went to a rally in Michigan for Obama a short while back and I have to say it was a good mix of young, middle age, and old. Nothing about it gave me the sense that he was just a "college kid" candidate.

[Arkansas Granny]

26. PBS NewsHour did a similar report last night. They cited registration hurdles

and confusion over absentee voting as reasons why the youth vote may not show up. They expect a slight increase in voting percentages for the age group 18-30, but still not as high as older voters.

I sincerely hope that the expectations are exceeded, but historically, this age group has the lowest percentage of voters of all.

[tnlefty]

45. I had someone tell me that I'm too involved with my 18 yr. old, lol!

All because I realized that he's adjusting to being a freshman and when I knew the dates for early voting and the deadlines for applying for an absentee ballot, I e-mailed that info. to him along with the number to the election commission so that he'd have the info. that he needed to decide what he needed to do. He voted absentee because he was afraid something would happen and he wouldn't be able to get home to vote in person.

I just didn't want the dates to sneak up on him and it wasn't worth the risk of his not being able to vote because he was occupied with other aspects of life. I laughed at the person who said that to me, btw.

[timber84]

27. For what it's worth my college freshman son in NC is voting

on Nov 4. With all of his friends from Appalachain State University.

[Indi Guy]

28. This Time around - Young people will do what they do...

...cram for the exam & get their vote in before the deadline.

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Indi Guy]

35. I couldn't agree with you more!...

The youth vote didn't fail Kerry & Gore -- Kery & Gore failed the youth (end everyone else) -- they gave up.

Sorry to say the truth.

Today is today though, and I am very excited and hopeful that Obama will winn this one (in the face of "that one"). ;)

[chiefofclarinet]

53. Yeah, I've got three mid-terms next week

Fortunately, I already voted absentee, back when these exams weren't on the horizon.

[Ozma]

60. tens of thousands of younger voters worked for Obama

Proably triple those that worked for Kerry.

Kerry screwed himself, no two ways about it. Don't blame all the youth for Kerry's mistakes, and for Ohio fraud.

[The Night Owl]

66. Are you joking? In 2004, the youth vote screwed the Democratic party bigtime.

In 2004, only 1 out of every 10 voters were of the 18 to 30 year old age group. Look it up. Bush got a 2nd term precisely because of the unreliability of young people.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

72. Dead wrong -- 17% of voters were 18-29 years old and went for Kerry:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

In fact, we were the ONLY age group to go for Kerry, so why don't you go blame Boomers and the elderly?

:eyes:

[The Night Owl]

73. Thanks for the correction but 17% youth turn out is abysmal. {EOM}

[Starbucks Anarchist]

75. Do you understand math?

You said 1/10 of voters were 18-30, which would be 10%, not 17%.

Now you're backtracking so you don't look like any more of an ass.

And like I said before, we were the ONLY AGE GROUP to vote for Kerry. Don't blame us -- blame your generation.

[The Night Owl]

77. Do you have a reading comprehension problem? I'm saying that 17%...

...is not much better than 10%. And I would be willing to bet that most of the 17% was in the 25 to 30 year old age group.

[Forkboy]

79. "willing to bet" is not a good foundation for a debate.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

81. Actually, it's almost twice as high.

And you originally complained that it was 10%, and now you're *assuming* most of it was in the "25-30" age group with no factual evidence to back it up.

And by the way, the cutoff is 29, not 30. Every age group 30 and up went for Bush.

And I repeat myself -- we were the ONLY AGE GROUP to go for Kerry.

[fizzgig]

78. .

[The Night Owl]

80. Right. Only rougly 2 out of every 10 voters was in the 18 to 30 year old range. And that is being...

...generous. 17% is an abysmal showing of young voters... especially when one considers that young people have an easier time getting around than old people.

[fizzgig]

82. pew has it at 51.6 percent

http://www.pewtrusts.org/news_room_detail.aspx?id=17696

and this has it as 47 percent for 18-24

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

those percentages of total voters is not the same as turnout. according to your logic, turnout for blacks was only 11 percent that group, according to the cnn info, comprised roughly 11 percent of the voters.

take a look at this press release from the census office...it has turnout for black voters at 60 percent
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html

[EFerrari]

74. No, that's not true --- but, that story was pimped all over the media.

So, if people remember it that way, there's a good reason for it.

[suston96]

31. Could be they are in school or working?

Could be that most of us who are retired or can easily leave work do what we always do?

Could be that early voting is a novelty that has yet to set its own demographics?

Could be......ah, forget it. Carry on with the catastrophizing!

[WI_DEM]

32. Don't put down the youth vote: Their numbers increased in both 2004 & 2006

I doubt with Obama at the head of the ticket they will decrease in 2008:




When we discuss the role of young voters in the outcomes of an election, we can
describe their impact in a number of different ways. The first, and perhaps most useful,
measure of young voters’ influence is their turnout. The youth voter turnout rate rose
significantly in 2004, and young people comprised the age group that exhibited the
greatest increase in voter turnout between 2000 and 2004. Table 1 shows that
participation among young people ages 18-24 jumped 11 percentage points between
2000 and 2004.
Table 1: Voter Turnout Among Citizens
November 2000 and 2004
2000 2004
Percentage Point
Difference
18-24 36% 47% +11 % points
25-34 51% 56% +5 % points
35-44 60% 64% +4 % points
45-54 66% 69% +3 % points
55-64 70% 73% +3 % points
65-74 72% 73% +1 % points
75+ 67% 69% +2 % points
All Ages 60% 64% +4 % points
Source: Authors’ Tabulations from the CPS Nov. Voting and Registration Supplements, 1972-2004

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

Youth Voters Opt for Democrats in 2006

CIRCLE releases a new fact sheet on Young Voters in the 2006 Elections.

Turnout among 18-29 year-olds increased for the second major election in a row.
Young adults voted for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in races for the House of Representatives (58% vs. 38%), the Senate (60% vs. 33%) and governor (55% vs. 34%).

http://www.civicyouth.org/quick/youth_voting.htm

My guess is that turnout among the so-called "youth vote" will exceed 50%. Remember it was the youth vote that almost made the difference in 2004--it was the only age group Kerry won--and look how close that election was.

[bushisanidiot]

33. What bullshit. My son and many of his friends voted on Wednesday on campus.

and I joined them! I even got a pic cuz I was so proud. They were ALL voting for Obama.. I know this because I heard them talking in line, mostly making fun of McFart.

[CreekDog]

34. I think this thread should be deleted, it is a smear against young people

That the youth vote didn't turn out in 2004 is a big myth.

And this is smack in the face to the young people that are such an important part of the Obama campaign.

[ratherunique]

37. i'm young and voting on election day

only because there's no early voting in new jersey.

my obama yard sign got stolen on mischief night, someone needs to pay!!

[GirlieQ]

38. Hey, some of us just want to vote on the 4th!

It's, like, all shiny and new, this voting thing.

Don't give up on us young'uns yet!

[WCIL]

40. What is wrong with voting on Election Day?

My two children are in college, and they are excited to be voting on Tuesday. They are students at Truman State, and registered to vote in Missouri, as Illinois is solid for Obama. Last night they drove over to Columbia to see him speak, and when they called me at 1AM, their excitement was overwhelming. It is not about putting down the Wii controller or waiting for the text. My children and their friends are proud to be voting in their first Presidential election, and will cast their votes for Obama on Tuesday.

[Ysabel]

41. if anything we older people screwed them...

how dare you...

as an older person i take partial responsibility for fucking the youth over look at the mess we are handing them...

they came out in record numbers during the last two election cycles...

it's disgusting to put them down (as well it reeks of authoritarianism / compare to the republican party)...

- the young are our best (and perhaps our last) hope...

----------------

p.s. cnn is a propaganda machine...

[Malikshah]

42. Campbell Brown-- the Drudge of CNN

She can go pound sand with Candy Crowley.

[MaineDem]

46. The youth vote turned out in record numbers in '04

I'm counting on them this year - and they've been voting Democratic overwhelmingly in Maine's early vote.

[Cosmic Charlie]

48. nice attitude, Grandpa

[slick8790]

49. Hey, we're trying. But they don't make it easy for us college kids.

This is my first presidential election I can vote in, and in the process of applying for an absentee ballot, the state of New Jersey has lost my application twice. TWO TIMES. I barely got my most recent application in before the deadline. And as of today, I still haven't received it. Which is getting me nervous. This process is not just myself alone, many people I know have gotten tripped up and some aren't even able to vote due to missed deadlines, invalidated forms, etc. etc. We need easier absentee voting, then perhaps we can get a larger surge in the college age demographic. Because everyone I know is excited about the election, its just a matter of whether or not they can cast a ballot.

[prolesunited]

50. Yeah, that'll motivate them

:eyes:

[Thrill]

51. I don't know about other places. But they are showing up here in NC

[EFerrari]

62. They sure are! I heard that yesterday. n/t

[tomg]

54. As I said on another thread,

if my students are any indication, young voters are turning out at far higher levels than in 2004. At the college where I teach, all my first-years have voted by absentee, and of my upper division, only locals have not yet voted. Frankly, if all the locals don't vote at all ( and they will vote since some are very active politically), the turnout will still be 90%. I've been talking to my colleagues since I posted earlier, and we are all noticing this.

[woo me with science]

55. I thought I saw teen gangbangers at the drugstore yesterday.

They had the hiphop street clothes on, and their language and manner of speaking was street. But when I passed them in the aisle, I heard one say to the other, "We have to go early, man, before the polling place even opens. I don't wanna wait in some shit line." I listened to their conversation a little longer, and it was clear they are voting for Barack.

[totodeinhere]

56. I hope that the youth vote comes out really strong for Obama, but...

if it doesn't, don't worry. Obama will still win handily. He will take every age demographic except for 65 and over.

[mnhtnbb]

57. My 18 yo son voted Obama on the second day of early voting in NC

One of the early voting locations in our county (Orange) is on the UNC Chapel Hill campus.
People have been waiting in line there to early vote.

[Joe the Revelator]

58. I'm 26. My 26 year old wife and I want to vote on Election day

Early voting is cool, but you can't beat the feeling of Election day.

[Every Man A King]

63. Maybe Gallup is wrong

Ever think of that asshole?

[The Night Owl]

67. Why are you attacking me? {EOM}

[mrreowwr_kittty]

65. The problem is that GOTV efforts are heavily focused on colleges

Yes, it makes sense because young people in school are going to tend to be more engaged. But the majority of people from 18 to 25 are NOT in college. They are busting their butts at crappy service jobs or learning a trade. Many of them are married and have families or are single parents. I'm talking about something like 75% of them. Yet they are largely ignored by political campaigns that seem to assume that young adult = college student.

[susanwy]

83. I agree, but just to be clear

http://www.civicyouth.org/quick/youth_voting.htm (The 2004 Youth Vote: A Comprehensive Guide PDF)

non-college 18-24 2000 - 25% of eligible voters
2004 - 34% of eligible voters up 9 points

As stated up thread, 18-24 college increase 11%. So yes, the turn out is lower, but overall did increase in 2004 at close to the same rate as college youth. But, if you dig a little deeper, non-college trended republican, and were not ignored by the religious right GOTV. Will they turn out in greater numbers this year?

What is sad is the fact that this thread is arguing that turnout of 34-47% of eligible voters in 18-24 is great, when in fact it is quite low compared to other countries. Over all, about 60% of those eligible to vote in the country do so, even less in mid-term elections, and THAT is nothing to be proud of. I just don't get not voting, regardless of your background.

[thewiseguy]

68. I am young and I am voting on the election day

Some of my friends have already voted but I prefer to vote on Nov 4.

I just love the election day experience. :woohoo:

[PA Democrat]

71. My 19 year old has already voted absentee.

Don't sell young people short. I was amazed at the number of young people working in the local Obama campaign office.

[Oliver Carling]

84. Don't flake out: the music video

Young voters in danger of flaking out should watch my music video: http://vermontdailybriefing.com/?p=1107. Spread the word, and enjoy.

[nolabels]

85. It's those gawd dang lazy old hippies that don't show up to vote

Haven't you people figured that out after all these years :P

[TexasObserver]

86. Young people tend to procrastinate, and they're impatient.

That means a disproportionate number don't vote early, do wait to vote on election day, and are less likely to stand in line for hours to vote.

Every election, well meaning young voters never vote, due to procrastination and impatience.

I do hope this election shows a significant change in the voting patterns of young people, but the polling data thus far suggest they're not showing up in great numbers for early voting.