Daily Kos (Research 2000) Poll: Obama 51 (+1), McCain 45 (no change)

[dennis4868]

OH MY GOSH IT'S TIGHTENING!!!! NOT!

internals...http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/31

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Yesterday's Results

DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/30 44 52 1 1 1 1

[MoJoWorkin]

16. No, it was Obama 50 yesterday McCain 45

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/30

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Am Talking About The One Day Result From Yesterday

~

[MoJoWorkin]

20. ok

[regnaD kciN]

18. When he says "yesterday's results"...

...he means the polling data from yesterday's surveys.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. 52-44 Is Encouraging Though The MOE For One DayI Is 5%

~

[tedoll78]

2. Another day gone.

Mr McCain, time's running out! :D

[regnaD kciN]

8. That's the key point...

As of yesterday, the Pollster.com "poll of polls" had O +5.9%. For McCain to catch up (and I know it's the state polls that matter, but indulge me by granting that the national trackers may give a clue to where the state results may be going as well), he would need to shave a little less than 1.2% off Obama's lead every day between today and Election Day. Every day that the results either don't change or move in Obama's direction makes the task that much harder. (For example, if today's overall result is unchanged, McCain has to make up 1.5% every day thereafter; if tomorrow is likewise unchanged, that jumps to 2%, and so on.)

[Schulzz]

3. DailyKos O+1, Zogby no change - I like the start of the polling day. nt

[fujiyama]

4. Looks like it my have been statistical noise or maybe the infomercial had an effect?

Obama is holding steady.

I'm waiting for Rasmussen. He had Obama at 51 yesterday.

I think Obama needs to be at around 51 and he'll be OK. I don't want to rely on undecideds, who I believe are mostly pissed off conservatives anyways. That's why I think McCain has inched upward this week taking a few undecideds....

[regnaD kciN]

6. Look at the daily numbers...

PRE-INFOMERCIAL

Tuesday +5
Wednesday +5

POST-INFOMERCIAL

Thursday +8

Now, indeed, it may be statistical noise...but Obama hasn't had a polling day that high in this poll since, I believe, last Saturday. More to the point, it would appear that it had more to do with Obama gaining strength, rather than McCain losing it, since yesterday's numbers were O 52 - M 44. Still too early to tell, but not a bad sign.

[dennis4868]

5. I am not sure about their demographics

Democrats 35%
Republicans 26%
Independents 30%

They sample 9% more Dems than Repubs? That seems a little hight to me.

[regnaD kciN]

7. They skew a bit toward Democrats...

...since that 9% difference is a bit more than the 6%-7% you'll find in most polls. However, the crucial issue is day-to-day variances within the same poll. Over the course of the past five days, Obama's lead in this poll narrowed dramatically, from +11 to +5. Now, it seems to be going up again (especially in terms of the daily numbers).

[dennis4868]

9. "Obama's lead in this poll narrowed dramatically"

I disagree...Obama went from an average 7-7.5 point lead to now a 5.5-6 point lead in the past week and now things are stable and even a little uptick for Obama....Are you saying that the daily tracking polls had Obama with a 11 point lead on average? NO WAY.

[regnaD kciN]

15. You're not reading what I wrote...

I mentioned the results "in this poll" (i.e. dKos/R2K). Until Monday morning, it had been the most reliably favorable-to-Obama tracker out there, with a double-digit overall lead, and daily results as high as O+14. Then, over the weekend, the individual daily result dropped from +11 (Friday polling) down to +9 (Saturday) and +5 (Sunday), followed by +6, +5, +5, as the overall "topline" also dropped from 52-41 (Sunday's release) to 50-45 (yesterday's). Today is the first overall uptick, and the first daily result outside the 5-6 point margin, in the past week.

[dennis4868]

19. understood...

[GOTV]

10. Real Clear Politics' aggregate poll is a little down O +6.2 yesterdat O +5.9 today n/t

[dennis4868]

11. That's because...

of the FOX poll that came out yesterday, right?

[Teaser]

12. they dropped the pew poll. Intentionally to lower the average

because Pew + CBS would have bumped the lead too much.


They have no consistent standard for holding onto polls.

[GOTV]

14. I think they drop results as they age. Pew's last numbers were from 10/26

[jefferson_dem]

21. And no consistent standard for deciding which polls to include...

As the Kos/R2K poll is dead to the RCP folks.

[GOTV]

13. Yes, they include Fox's O +3 poll along with 9 others